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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Modelagem das reservas internacionais Ãtimas no BRIC: tÃo heterogÃneos, tÃo dependentes / Modeling of optimal international reserves in BRIC: so heterogeneous, so dependent

MÃrcio Heber Medeiros RebouÃas 30 January 2015 (has links)
nÃo hà / O presente trabalho agrega à discussÃo da literatura teÃrica-empÃrica, seguindo conceitualmente Heller (1966), e alinhando-se a Calvo, Izquierdo e Loo-Kung (2012), e Alfaro e Kanczuk (2007; 2014), ao analisar as reservas internacionais dos paÃses que compÃem os BRIC, relativamente ao perÃodo de 1997 a 2013, com o intuito de associar o patamar otimizado de reservas a um instrumento gerencial de proteÃÃo (buffer) dos ativos pÃblicos, que funcionam como um amortecedor perante os desequilÃbrios do balanÃo de pagamentos, em funÃÃo de crises e sudden stops, dadas as evidÃncias prÃvias de contÃgio e integraÃÃo financeira neste bloco. O interesse pelos BRIC à pautado no fato de que nos prÃximos cinquenta anos, estas naÃÃes poderÃo vir a se tornar as maiores forÃas da economia mundial. Seguindo metodologicamente Frenkel e Jovanic (1981), aplicou-se o modelo intitulado de buffer stock nas sÃries temporais das reservas, havendo a inovaÃÃo e a relevÃncia no trabalho em virtude da consideraÃÃo dos possÃveis efeitos cruzados significativos das volatilidades condicionais e dos respectivos spreads intrabloco, atravÃs de um modelo vetorial com correÃÃo de erros (VEC). Verifica-se ainda que, sob a aplicaÃÃo deste modelo economÃtrico, os resultados permitiram identificar o papel relevante desempenhado pela volatilidade das reservas brasileira e russa, assim como do spread chinÃs na explicaÃÃo da gestÃo de reservas em alguns dos demais BRIC, que reflete na adoÃÃo de eventuais posturas conservadoras ou ousadas, por parte dos policy makers integrantes do bloco. / This study adds to discussion of theoretical and empirical literature, conceptually following Heller (1966), and aligning with the Calvo, Izquierdo e Loo-Kung (2012), and Alfaro e Kanczuk (2007; 2014), when analyzing international reserves countries that make up BRIC, for period 1997-2013, with a view to involving optimal level of reserves to a management tool protection (buffers) of public assets, which act as a buffer before balance of payments imbalances , due to crises and sudden stops, given previous evidence of contagion and financial integration in this block. Interest in BRIC is grounded in fact that next fifty years, these nations are likely to become major forces in the world economy. Following methodologically Frenkel e Jovanić (1981), we applied model titled buffer stock in time series of stores, and innovation and relevance in work due to consideration of likely significant cross effects of conditional volatilities and their bloc spreads, through a vector error correction model (VEC). It also appears that under application of econometric model, study findings show important role played by volatility of Brazilian and Russian stocks, as well as Chinese spread in explaining reserve management in some of other BRIC, which reflects adoption of any conservative or daring attitudes on the part of policy makers members of the bloc.

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