The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past three decades have resulted in a mean UCRB water-year streamflow departure of 21306 million m(3) (or -7% of mean water-year streamflow). Additionally, warm-season (April through September) temperature has had a larger effect on variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than the cool-season (October through March) temperature. The greater contribution of warm-season temperature, relative to cool-season temperature, to variability of UCRB flow suggests that evaporation or snowmelt, rather than changes from snow to rain during the cool season, has driven recent reductions in UCRB flow. It is expected that as warming continues, the negative effects of temperature on water-year UCRB streamflow will become more evident and problematic.

Correctly predicting water levels is key to the success of created wetlands. The Pierce method is a commonly used technique for modeling and designing mitigation wetlands that assumes minimal groundwater interaction with the wetland. This technique for mitigation wetland design relies primarily on surface water inputs, assuming a relatively impermeable substrate (perched system), and level pool routing. The Pierce method was applied utilizing two different evapotranspiration estimation methods: Thornthwaite (IPM) and FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (IPM-FAO). A second process-based model, utilizing MODFLOW-2005, was constructed to better predict water levels in mitigation wetlands. Modeled processes included groundwater movement and vegetative resistance to flow, which can be a significant factor in wetland water levels. The two versions of the Pierce method were compared to the process-based wetland representation developed in MODFLOW-2005 using data from an existing mitigation wetland. Output from these models were compared to observed data from an existing mitigation wetland near Manassas, VA, USA. Results indicate the use of Thornthwaite's method to estimate wetland evapotranspiration (ET) does not capture the timing or magnitude of wetland ET losses, leading to over-prediction of wetland water levels during the growing season. The Modflow-based approach resulted in more accurate hydroperiod predictions on a yearly basis than the Pierce Method. However, the Integrated Pierce method model, utilizing the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method of estimating potential evapotranspiration instead of Thornthwaite's method most accurately predicted water levels during the growing season (March-October). / Master of Science

The thesis contains two studies: First is the water budget analysis using the groundwater modeling and next is the groundwater modeling using the MCMC scheme. The case study for the water budget analysis was the Norman Landfill site in Oklahoma with a quite complex hydrology. This site contains a wetland that controls the groundwater-surface water interaction. This study reports a simulation study for better understanding of the local water balance at the landfill site using MODFLOW-2000. Inputs to the model are based on local climate, soil, geology, vegetation and seasonal hydrological dynamics of the system to determine the groundwater-surface water interaction, water balance components in various hydrologic reservoirs, and the complexity and seasonality of local/regional hydrological processes. The model involved a transient two- dimensional hydrogeological simulation of the multi-layered aquifer. In the second part of the thesis, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method were developed to estimate the hydraulic conductivity field conditioned on the measurements of hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic head for saturated flow in randomly heterogeneous porous media. The groundwater modeling approach was found to be efficient in identifying the dominant hydrological processes at the Norman Landfill site including evapotranspiration, recharge, and regional groundwater flow and groundwater-surface water interaction. The MCMC scheme also proved to be a robust tool for the inverse groundwater modeling but its strength depends on the precision of the prior covariance matrix.

Soil moisture and ground thaw state are both indicative of a hillslopes ability to transfer water. In cold regions in particular, it is widely known that the wetness of surface soils and depth of ground thaw are important for runoff generation, but the diversity of interactions between surface soil moisture and ground thaw themselves has not been studied. To fill this knowledge gap, detailed shallow soil moisture and thaw depth surveys were conducted along systematic grids at the Baker Creek Basin, Northwest Territories. Multiple hillslopes were studied to determine how the interactions differed along a spectrum of topological, typological and topographic situations (T³ template). Results did not show a simple relationship between soil moisture and ground thaw as was expected. Instead, correlation was a function of wetness such that the correlation between soil moisture and ground thaw improved with site wetness. To understand why differences in soil moisture and ground thaw state arose, water and energy fluxes were examined for these subarctic study sites to discern the key processes controlling the patterns observed. Results showed that the key control in variable soil moisture and frost table interactions among the sites was the presence of surface water. At the peatland and wetland sites, accumulated water in depressions and flow paths maintained soil moisture for a longer duration than at the hummock tops. These wet areas were often locations of deepest thaw depth due to the transfer of latent heat accompanying lateral surface runoff. Although the peatland and wetland sites had large inundation extents, modified Péclet numbers indicated that the relative influence of external and internal hydrological processes at each site were different. Continuous inflow from an upstream lake into the wetland site caused advective and conductive thermal energies to be of equal importance to ground thaw. The absence of continuous surface flow at the peatland and valley sites led to the dominance of conductive thermal energy over advective energy for ground thaw. A quantitative explanation for the shallow soil moisture-ground thaw patterns was provided by linking hydrological processes and hillslope storage capacity with the calculated water and energy fluxes as well as the modified Péclet number. These results suggest that the T³ template and the modified Péclet number could be very useful parameters for differentiating landscape components in modeling soil moisture and frost table heterogeneity in cold regions.

Accurate estimates of the amount of groundwater entering a lake on a yearly basis may provide valuable information for assessing contaminant loadings such as nutrient mass fluxes and the subsequent contribution of groundwater to eutrophication. Groundwater exchange with lakes is often a critical component of a lake’s water balance, yet its quantification has often proven problematic. Large component uncertainties preclude accurate estimation of the groundwater flux, upon which the assessment of contaminant loadings may depend. In this study, water balance techniques for lake systems were assessed at Lake Pyhäjärvi (near Säkylä, SW Finland), a relatively large lake in a long established agricultural area. A water balance was conducted over 38 water years to estimate the net groundwater discharge into the lake. This was compared with groundwater flux estimates via Darcy’s Law for the adjacent Honkala Aquifer in the Kuivalahti-Säkylä tributary esker (a potential conduit for groundwater impacted by agricultural practices). Direct runoff estimates were initially made using an average of river flow per unit area ratios from the two rivers that flow into the lake. Adjustments to these estimates were made using PART (Rutledge, 2007) hydrograph separation results from the larger river. The mean net groundwater discharge increased from -73 to +38mm per unit lake area (-4.8 to +2.5% of average total inflow) due to these adjustments, which yielded a better qualitative match with observations at the lake (e.g., Rautio, 2009; Rautio and Korkka-Niemi, 2011). Uncertainty analysis for the water balance indicated that relative uncertainty ranged from 40 to 2900% on the net groundwater flux, while the average absolute uncertainty was 118mm per unit lake area. Groundwater discharge estimates based on Darcy’s Law were ≤ 22 mm per unit lake area (≤1.4% of average total inflow) with sizeable uncertainty (± one order of magnitude). Most of the uncertainty on the net groundwater discharge estimates was incurred from the evaporation, precipitation, and direct runoff components; esker flux uncertainty was essentially due to error on the hydraulic conductivity estimate. The resolution of the water balance method suggests that it is better suited to lakes with relatively large net groundwater contributions (>5% of average total inflow). Results highlight the following needs for large lake water balances: improvements in the accuracy of evaporation, precipitation, and direct runoff component estimates; and uncertainty analysis. Groundwater contributions to inflow rivers may be more important than direct discharge from highly permeable subsurface materials adjacent to lakes in the context of understanding nutrient loadings to large lakes.

Soil moisture and ground thaw state are both indicative of a hillslopes ability to transfer water. In cold regions in particular, it is widely known that the wetness of surface soils and depth of ground thaw are important for runoff generation, but the diversity of interactions between surface soil moisture and ground thaw themselves has not been studied. To fill this knowledge gap, detailed shallow soil moisture and thaw depth surveys were conducted along systematic grids at the Baker Creek Basin, Northwest Territories. Multiple hillslopes were studied to determine how the interactions differed along a spectrum of topological, typological and topographic situations (T³ template). Results did not show a simple relationship between soil moisture and ground thaw as was expected. Instead, correlation was a function of wetness such that the correlation between soil moisture and ground thaw improved with site wetness. To understand why differences in soil moisture and ground thaw state arose, water and energy fluxes were examined for these subarctic study sites to discern the key processes controlling the patterns observed. Results showed that the key control in variable soil moisture and frost table interactions among the sites was the presence of surface water. At the peatland and wetland sites, accumulated water in depressions and flow paths maintained soil moisture for a longer duration than at the hummock tops. These wet areas were often locations of deepest thaw depth due to the transfer of latent heat accompanying lateral surface runoff. Although the peatland and wetland sites had large inundation extents, modified Péclet numbers indicated that the relative influence of external and internal hydrological processes at each site were different. Continuous inflow from an upstream lake into the wetland site caused advective and conductive thermal energies to be of equal importance to ground thaw. The absence of continuous surface flow at the peatland and valley sites led to the dominance of conductive thermal energy over advective energy for ground thaw. A quantitative explanation for the shallow soil moisture-ground thaw patterns was provided by linking hydrological processes and hillslope storage capacity with the calculated water and energy fluxes as well as the modified Péclet number. These results suggest that the T³ template and the modified Péclet number could be very useful parameters for differentiating landscape components in modeling soil moisture and frost table heterogeneity in cold regions.

Increasing demand for water supplies in semi-arid regions, such as San Antonio, has sparked an interest in potential recharge management through brush control. Two shallow caves under woody plant cover in northern Bexar County, Texas were chosen as study sites where a detailed water budget would be developed. The Headquarters Cave site measures natural rainfall and cave recharge while the Bunny Hole site is instrumented to measure throughfall, stemflow, surface runoff, and cave recharge. Large scale rainfall simulation was used at Bunny Hole to apply water directly above the cave footprint allowing us to determine how recharge differs between natural and simulated rainfall events. Under natural conditions, Headquarters Cave recharged 15.05% of the annual rainfall while Bunny Hole received 4.28%. Natural canopy throughfall measured 59.96% of the water budget; stemflow accounted for 0.48% and canopy interception was 39.56%; no surface runoff was measured. Rainfall simulations conducted at Bunny Hole resulted in an average of 74.5% throughfall, 5.3% stemflow, 20.2% canopy interception, 2.8% surface runoff, and 6.9% cave recharge; simulation intensities were typically higher than natural event intensities. General water budgets across the Edwards Plateau have concluded that evapotranspiration represents 65% of total annual rainfall while percolation and storage accounts for 30% and the remaining 5% is runoff. These studies have been focused on broad water budget parameters while this study looks at more detailed components. No other study to date has been able to combine throughfall, stemflow, surface runoff, and vertical recharge monitoring to quantify the water budget in the Edwards Plateau; these parameters are instrumental in determining a detailed water budget in juniper rangelands. Results from this study illustrate the significance of all aspects of the water budget and are the first to yield a firm measurement of actual upland recharge.

Accurate estimates of the amount of groundwater entering a lake on a yearly basis may provide valuable information for assessing contaminant loadings such as nutrient mass fluxes and the subsequent contribution of groundwater to eutrophication. Groundwater exchange with lakes is often a critical component of a lake’s water balance, yet its quantification has often proven problematic. Large component uncertainties preclude accurate estimation of the groundwater flux, upon which the assessment of contaminant loadings may depend. In this study, water balance techniques for lake systems were assessed at Lake Pyhäjärvi (near Säkylä, SW Finland), a relatively large lake in a long established agricultural area. A water balance was conducted over 38 water years to estimate the net groundwater discharge into the lake. This was compared with groundwater flux estimates via Darcy’s Law for the adjacent Honkala Aquifer in the Kuivalahti-Säkylä tributary esker (a potential conduit for groundwater impacted by agricultural practices). Direct runoff estimates were initially made using an average of river flow per unit area ratios from the two rivers that flow into the lake. Adjustments to these estimates were made using PART (Rutledge, 2007) hydrograph separation results from the larger river. The mean net groundwater discharge increased from -73 to +38mm per unit lake area (-4.8 to +2.5% of average total inflow) due to these adjustments, which yielded a better qualitative match with observations at the lake (e.g., Rautio, 2009; Rautio and Korkka-Niemi, 2011). Uncertainty analysis for the water balance indicated that relative uncertainty ranged from 40 to 2900% on the net groundwater flux, while the average absolute uncertainty was 118mm per unit lake area. Groundwater discharge estimates based on Darcy’s Law were ≤ 22 mm per unit lake area (≤1.4% of average total inflow) with sizeable uncertainty (± one order of magnitude). Most of the uncertainty on the net groundwater discharge estimates was incurred from the evaporation, precipitation, and direct runoff components; esker flux uncertainty was essentially due to error on the hydraulic conductivity estimate. The resolution of the water balance method suggests that it is better suited to lakes with relatively large net groundwater contributions (>5% of average total inflow). Results highlight the following needs for large lake water balances: improvements in the accuracy of evaporation, precipitation, and direct runoff component estimates; and uncertainty analysis. Groundwater contributions to inflow rivers may be more important than direct discharge from highly permeable subsurface materials adjacent to lakes in the context of understanding nutrient loadings to large lakes.

Master of Arts / Department of Geography / John A. Harrington Jr / The Rainwater Basin Wetland Complex of south-central Nebraska is a region of great climatic variability, as well as tremendous ecological importance. The Rainwater Basin Wetland Complex is located at the focal point of the Central North American migratory bird flyway, and supports in excess of twelve million birds during the spring migration period. The physical landscape has been significantly altered from its pre-settlement state by agricultural conversion via the draining of over ninety percent of the native wetlands. Due to the region’s highly variable continental climate, interannual wetland water levels are also highly variable and currently unpredictable. I have used multi-year analysis, including the construction of a regional water budget assessment, to study which climatic variables play the most crucial role in the late-winter filling of wetlands. Research objectives were met by analyzing ten cold season (Oct – Feb) climatic variables and an annual measure of wetland area for five years, in order to better understand possible climatic drivers of wetland hydrologic functioning levels in March. Longer time series of winter season climatic information were also assessed to help place the recent and more detailed analysis into a longer climatic context. Research results will aid local management agencies in the future through enhanced knowledge of how climatic variation impacts wetland function. Seasonal precipitation and temperature was favored by the linear regression analysis, while the multiple regression analysis placed higher emphasis on February evapotranspiration rates, February snow depth, and February snowfall. Lastly, the hydrologic water budget that was created for the study area had several highly correlated output variables with basin-wide flooded hectares, particularly annual snow storage.

Cette thèse a pour but de préparer un travail d’extrapolation de l’impact des overshoots stratosphériques (SOC) sur le bilan de vapeur d’eau (VE) dans la couche de la tropopause tropicale (TTL) et dans la basse stratosphère à l’échelle continentale.Pour ce faire, nous profitons des mesures de la campagne de terrain TRO-Pico tenue à Bauru, au Brésil, pendant deux saisons convectives/humides en 2012 et 2013, et de plusieurs simulations numériques de la TTL sur un domaine englobant une grande partie de l’Amérique du Sud avec le modèle méso-échelle BRAMS.Premièrement, nous effectuer une simulation d’une une saison humide complète sans tenir compte des SOC. Cette simulation est ensuite évaluée pour d’autres caractéristiques clés typiques (température de la TTL, VE, sommets de nuages et ondes de gravité) dans la TTL. En l’absence de SOC et avant d’extrapoler son leur impact, nous démontrons que le modèle reproduit correctement les caractéristiques principales de la TTL. L’importance de l’ascension lente à grande échelle par rapport aux processus convectifs profonds à échelle finie est ensuite discutée.Deuxièmement, à partir de simulations BRAMS à fine à échelle de cas de SOC observés pendant TRO-Pico, nous déduisons des quantités physiques (flux de glace, bilan de masse de glace, tailles des SOCs), qui serviront à définir un forçage de l’impact des overshoots dans des simulations à grande échelle. Nous montrons un impact maximum d’environ 2 kt en VE et 6 kt de glace par SOC. Ces chiffres sont 30% nférieurs pour un autre réglage microphysique du modèle. Nous montrons que seul trois types d’hydrométéores du modèle contribuent à cette hydratation. / This dissertation aims at laying a foundation on upscaling work of the impact of stratospheric overshooting convection (SOC) on the water vapor budget in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and lower stratosphere at a continental scale.To do so, we take advantage of the TRO-Pico field campaign measurements held at Bauru, Brazil, during two wet/convective seasons in 2012 and 2013, and perform accordingly several numerical simulations of the TTL which encompass through a large part of south America using the BRAMS mesoscale model.Firstly, we adopt a strategy of simulating a full wet season without considering SOC. This simulation is then evaluated for other typical key features (e.g., TTL temperature, convective clouds, gravity wave) of the TTL. In the absence of SOC and before upscaling its impact, we demonstrate that the model has a fair enough ability to reproduce a typical TTL. The importance of large-scale upwelling in comparison to the finite-scale deep convective processes is then discussed.Secondly, from fine scale BRAMS simulations of an observational case of SOC during TRO-Pico, we deduce physical parameters (mass flux, ice mass budget, SOC size) that will be used to set a nudging of the SOC impact in large-scale simulations. A typical maximum impact of about 2kt of water vapor, and 6kt of ice per SOC cell is computed. This estimation is 30% lower for another microphysical setup of the model. We also show that the stratospheric hydration by SOC is mainly due to two types of hydrometeors in the model.