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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Longitudinal modelling of water levels of the Okavango River

Unandapo, Lazarus Pendapala January 2016 (has links)
A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. May 30, 2016. / In statistics, a model is as good as the data fed to it. Data about hydrological events continues to grow rapidly over the years, with different variables being recorded on a continuous scale. These variables can be interpreted and used in a different manner among disciplines. Thus, choosing the right variables and interactions among variables is an important statistical step in building a good and accurate model. This dissertation involved the development of a statistical model which can be used to predict weekly water level within the Okavango river in northern Namibia. The parameters of the statistical mixed model were estimated based on two methods for longitudinal data, the Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) which is a well known method of parameter estimation in longitudinal data analysis when the observed variables are correlated, and the Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (REML) which is a likelihood based approach method, unlike the GEE. Using cross-validation and a simulation study, the GEE method of estimation was found to be less accurate and inconsistent in terms of prediction of parameter estimation of water level while the well known REML was found to predict the water level with a good degree of accuracy, consistency and with lower variance. Parameters from a simulation study have also shown less bias in REML method and predicted the cross-validation test-set with less bias. / GR 2016

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