The development of an open pit phosphate mine in 1965 near Aurora, North Carolina, required groundwater withdrawals in excess of 50 million gallons per day for pressure relief from the underlying confined Castle Hayne aquifer. The effects of pumping from this limestone aquifer were widespread, extending over an area of more than 2,000 square miles in the first year before the pressure cone reached a stabilized condition. Salt water encroachment by lateral movement from downdip in the aquifer and by downward leakage from the Pamlico Estuary and Sound was possible if prolonged pumping were permitted. A joint project between state and industry in 1970-71 focused on analyzing the effects of five years of pumping for the purpose of making projections of future conditions of groundwater quality for continued and expanded groundwater development. The present study describes the method of flow net analysis used in the joint project to determine quantitatively the values of aquitard vertical permeability and aquifer transmissivity. These values provided the rational basis for making projections of groundwater movement and quality changes associated with this movement, A hydrologic projection model, developed in the present study, integrates the quality and volumetric flow of vertical leakage with that of lateral flow. Projection analyses are presented for two hypothetical cases of chloride distribution changed by continued pumping and for chloride changes associated with three different pumping regimes in the subject area.