Cover states: Final Report submitted to the National Science Foundation / Grant No. ATM 79-24365 / Foreword states that this item is "in reality, a progress rather than a final report."

Water supply forecasting in the western United States is the prediction of the volume of water passing a given point on a stream during the primary snowmelt runoff season. Most water supply forecasts are produced from multiple linear regression models using snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow measurements as independent variables. In recent years, conceptual watershed simulation models, typically using a time step of one day, have also been used to produce these forecasts. This study examines model usage for: water supply forecasting in the West and has three specific purposes. The first is to examine the traditional usage of multiple linear regression and develop improved regression techniques to overcome several recognized weaknesses in traditional practice. Four techniques have been used in this study to improve water supply forecasts based on regression. They are: (1) basing the regression model only on data: known at forecast time (no future data); (2) principal components regression; (3) cross-validation; and (4) systematic searching for optimal or near-optimal combinations of variables. The second purpose of the study is to develop a monthly streamflow simulation model suitable for use in water supply forecasting. Such a model has not previously been used in this application, and it provides a forecasting tool midway in complexity between regression procedures and conceptual watershed simulation models. The third purpose of the study is to compare the accuracy of forecasts from regression, the monthly model developed here, and two conceptual watershed simulation models. It has generally been assumed, but not tested, that complex simulation models will give more accurate forecasts than simpler models. This study attempts to begin determining if this is true. Conceptual modeling results from previous studies on three basins in Idaho and Montana were obtained to represent current practice in the usage of this type of model. The results of the study led to the following conclusions: (1) significant improvements in forecast accuracy over past practice with regression can be obtained by the use of the four techniques developed here; (2) the monthly model performed better than the conceptual watershed models most of the time, for both seasonal volumes and monthly flows; (3) for the three test watersheds, regression provided the best forecast accuracy among the three modeling techniques most of the time, for both seasonal volumes and monthly flows; (4) optimal use of conceptual watershed models requires automated calibration schemes; and (5) in basins of complex orography, denser data networks will be required to calculate meaningful values of mean areal precipitation. This study has contributed to the practice of water supply forecasting by providing improvements to regression techniques, providing a new monthly model, developing a mean areal precipitation and temperature procedure based on kriging, and giving some initial direction for further investigations in the use of conceptual watershed models. The inability of the two simulation approaches to surpass regression in forecast accuracy brings up several issues with respect to modeling. These issues are in the areas of model calibration, model conceptualization, spatial and temporal aggregation, and areal averaging of input data. Further investigation is required to elucidate these issues before clear conclusions can be made about the relative forecasting abilities of simple and complex models. Further investigation is also required to study water management decision making and the kinds and accuracies of forecast information required to optimize these decisions.

Prepared for the U.S. Water Resources Scientific Information Center./ Bibliography: p. 141-220.

Irrigated agriculture accounts for 90 percent of consumptive use of freshwater in the western US and is considered the largest contributor to nonpoint source water pollution. The diffuse nature of most water quality and quantity challenges necessitates institutions that can more effectively engage agricultural producers in strategic, integrated, watershed-scale approaches to water management such as those associated with Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). With approximately 9,400 professionals working in nearly every one of the nation's 3,071 counties and an emphasis on voluntary, incentives-based approaches to conservation, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) is well poised to influence land and water management on private working lands. NRCS conservation programs, however, have been criticized as "random acts of conservation" that lack a strategic vision for addressing natural resource challenges at-scale. Using NRCS's new Agricultural Water Enhancement Program (AWEP) as a case study, this paper seeks to examine the factors that enable or inhibit NRCS from promoting an integrated approach to water management consistent with IWRM principles. Following the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework this paper traces the development of AWEP and examines how the rules established at the national level impact implementation at the national, state and local levels. The paper then evaluates AWEP based on a set of six IWRM design principles to determine (a) the extent to which AWEP represents an IWRM approach, and (b) the institutional factors that facilitate or inhibit NRCS from taking a more integrated approach to water management. I found that institutional factors vary greatly between levels of analysis depending on the specific context, but did identify several consistent enablers and barriers. The three most significant factors that facilitate an IWRM approach are: (1) AWEP's focus on priority resource concerns within a defined hydrographic area; (2) AWEP's emphasis on pursuing a partnership-based approach; and (3) increased local involvement in defining projects. The three most significant factors that inhibit an IWRM approach are: (1) a lack of clarity concerning partner roles and responsibilities and constraints on partner involvement; (2) limited flexibility of existing program rules; and (3) limited local capacity to engage with landowners and implement projects. The paper offers institutional recommendations for facilitating an IWRM approach within NRCS, and concludes with a consideration of the utility of IWRM design principles and the IAD framework for analyzing water management institutions. / Graduation date: 2012

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering, 1981 / Bibliography: leaves 264-269. / by John Jay Shaw. / Ph. D. / Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering

This study addresses the question: "What are the incentives and disincentives for conflict prevention and mitigation in the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and how do they factor into Reclamation's management of water in the western United States?" Incentives and disincentives for conflict prevention (i.e., actions taken to avoid conflict) and mitigation (i.e., actions taken to resolve, manage, or temper a conflictive situation after conflict has occurred) are identified through a survey and focus groups of Reclamation employees. The two dominant disincentives identified are a lack of resources and Reclamation's organizational culture--specifically its reliance on crisis management, water delivery tunnel vision, and being slow to change. Other disincentives include a lack of forward planning, the existence of an acceptable bandwidth or level of conflict, a perception that conflict is unavoidable or entrenched, politics, and limits on acceptable actions associated with the legal authorization of Reclamation projects. Fewer incentives for conflict prevention and mitigation were identified, but include, pressure from higher management, the promotion of collaboration within the Bureau, and a desire to avoid litigation. The institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework offers some insight into how these incentives and disincentives factored into the implementation of the Water2025 Initiative, and Reclamation’s experience with the Middle Rio Grande silvery minnow and the Endangered Species Act. As attributes of the community and rules-in-use, incentives and disincentives such as organizational culture, politics, funding availability, the desire to avoid litigation, the promotion of collaboration within the agency, and a lack of planning effort offer possible explanations of why Reclamation chose to act as it did. / Graduation date: 2012