Various climate models have been developed to analyze and predict climate change; however, model uncertainties cannot be easily overcome. A statistical approach has been presented in this paper to calculate the distributions of future climate change based on an ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. Wavelet analysis has been adopted to de-noise the WRF model output. Using the de-noised model output, we carry out Bayesian analysis to decrease uncertainties in model CAM_KF, RRTM_KF and RRTM_GRELL for each downscaling region. / text

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Circuit breaker is an important interrupting device in power system network. It usually has a lifetime about 20 to 40 years. During breaker's service time, maintenance and inspection are imperative duties to achieve its reliable operation. To automate the diagnostic practice for circuit breaker operation and reduce the utility company's workload, Wavelet based analysis software of circuit breaker operation is developed here. Combined with circuit breaker monitoring system, the analysis software processes the original circuit breaker information, speeds up the analysis time and provides stable and consistent evaluation for the circuit breaker operation.

In 2002, Pensacola Beach was identified by the United States Lifesaving Association as being the most hazardous beach in the continental United States for beach drowning by rip currents. Recent studies suggest that the rip currents at Pensacola Beach are associated with a transverse bar and rip morphology that develops with the migration of the bars and recovery of the beachface following an extreme storm. Combined with an alongshore variation in wave forcing by transverse ridges on the inner-shelf, the bar cycle (of bar response and recovery to extreme storms) is hypothesized to create both rip current hotspots and periods of rip activity. However, it is unknown at what stage, or stages, the bar cycle is associated with the formation of these hotspots and the greatest number of rips. To determine how the accretional rip hazard varies in response to the nearshore bar cycle, this thesis will quantify the alongshore variation in the nearshore bar morphology on Santa Rosa Island from 1951 to 2004. Aerial photographs and satellite images are collected for the study area and nearshore features are digitized in ArcGIS and evaluated using wavelet analysis. Specifically, a continuous wavelet transform is used to the identify times and locations when a transverse bar and rip morphology is present or is in the process of developing. The findings suggest that the rip-scale variation in bar morphology (~100-250m) is superimposed on an alongshore variation consistent with the scale of the transverse ridges (~1000m). From the outer bar to the shoreline, and as the bar migrates landward, the variation becomes increasingly dominated by the rip-scale variation. Hotspots of rip current activity were found consistently between years at Fort Pickens Gate, San Souci, Holiday Inn, Casino Beach, Avenida 18 and Portofino, as clusters of rip-scale variation.

Circuit breaker is an important interrupting device in power system network. It usually has a lifetime about 20 to 40 years. During breaker's service time, maintenance and inspection are imperative duties to achieve its reliable operation. To automate the diagnostic practice for circuit breaker operation and reduce the utility company's workload, Wavelet based analysis software of circuit breaker operation is developed here. Combined with circuit breaker monitoring system, the analysis software processes the original circuit breaker information, speeds up the analysis time and provides stable and consistent evaluation for the circuit breaker operation.

Using ultrasonic guided waves improve a problem of time-consuming and laborious with conventional ultrasonic method involving point¡Vby-point inspection. In order to measure of hundreds meters of pipeline in oil and chemical industries, guided waves inspection technique is used and developed widely. For fast and long range inspection, a pulse-echo system is used to excite Lamb waves propagating along the pipe. The collection and analysis of the returning echoes indicate the present of corrosion. But if the pipe features, like bends or supports, are corrosive, the signal of corrosions is often covered with echoes of pipe features. Then it causes the inspection more difficult. In this study, the pipe feature which discussed is the welded support. The focus of the advanced analysis, Discrete Wavelet Transform, of the echoes reflected from the welded support on a 3 inch pipe by experimental and finite element method, so as to improve the ability of corrosion inspection on pipe features. To study the feasibility of the improvement in the effect of coherent noise for guided wave inspection by Wavelet analysis. Results show that original signals can not be differentiated by comparing with signals of normal support, general corrosive support, and support with notch. But after processing these three signals by Wavelet analysis, the situation of the 3 type supports from the signals can be differentiated. The simulated results of two different models and five exciting frequencies show the similar trend to the experimental results after Wavelet transform processing. It is success on separating the signals of normal support and corrosive support with Wavelet Analysis, and this method of this study is useful to improve the effect of coherency noise for guided wave inspection.

Orientador: José Roberto Campanha / Banca: Roberto Eugenio Lagos Mônaco / Banca: Robson Pederiva / Resumo: O estudo de vibrações diz respeito aos movimentos oscilatórios de corpos e às forças que lhes são associadas. Todos os corpos dotados de massa e elasticidade são capazes de vibrar. Deste modo, a maior parte das máquinas e estruturas estão sujeitas a certos graus de vibração A maioria das atividades humanas envolve alguma forma de vibração. O estudo do comportamento dinâmico dessas oscilações mecânicas é o objetivo deste trabalho e para isto propomos um sistema de massas concentradas e com dois graus de liberdade. O sistema será excitado por forças externas, entre elas ondas de terremoto. Com simulações numéricas estudamos o sistema, usando a transformada rápida de Fourier, transformada wavelet. / Abstract: The study of vibration concerns oscillatory movement of bodies and the forces they are associated. All bodies that have mass and elasticity are able to vibrate. Thus, most of the machines and structures are subject to certain degrees of vibration most human activities involve some form of vibration. The study of the dynamic behavior of these mechanical oscillations is the objective of this work and to propose that a system of weights and concentrated with two degrees of freedom. The system will be excited by external forces, including waves of earthquake. With numerical simulations studied the system, using the fast Fourier transform, wavelet transform. / Mestre

Forest disturbances and the spatial patterns they create affect ecosystem processes through their influence on forest vegetation from individual trees to landscapes. In the boreal and mixed-wood forests of eastern Canada the main agents of disturbance are logging, fire, and defoliation by the spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana). These disturbances are similar in that they remove forest biomass and influence forest succession but also distinct in that logging creates patterns that are different than those created by natural disturbances. All disturbances are indirectly linked to each other through their mutual effects on forest spatial structure and succession. Through such feedbacks, spatial disturbance legacies can facilitate or constrain further disturbances, including forest management. Surprisingly, the long term spatial consequences of interactions among multiple natural and anthropogenic disturbances remain largely unexplored. This thesis investigates how, and at what spatial scale, legacies in forest composition and age structure influence natural disturbance dynamics, and how natural disturbances constrain forest management. I address four specific questions: (i) For how long do spatial legacies of different forest management strategies persist on the landscape? (ii) How do interactions among logging, fire, SBW, and succession affect timber availability and long term forest patterns in age and composition? (iii) How do these patterns differ from those created by each disturbance individually? And, (iv) How can management be used to reduce the extent and severity of fires and SBW defoliation through the manipulation of forest structure? The key scientific innovations of this thesis are: (i) Characterization of the duration and influence of spatial legacies on forest disturbances and sustainability; (ii) Development of a dynamic spatial forest simulation model that includes distinct successional rules that respond to different types of disturbance and shifts in disturbance regimes; and, (iii) Development and application of a wavelet-based significance testing framework to identify key scales of expression in forest spatial patterns. These innovations provide a scientific basis for landscape level forest management strategies designed to reduce the long term impacts of defoliating insects and to meet multiple objectives.

In our work, we focus on the dynamics of the volatility and co-movement during the first year of public trading. We use the wavelet analysis to investigate the return volatility of the technology stocks an their co-movement with the market in the time-frequency space. We employ the data sampled on multiple frequencies, ranging from 1 second high-frequency to daily data. We present three main findings. First, we identify gradual decline of the return volatility on all but the shortest investment horizons. Second, we do not find a convincing evidence that the technology stocks synchronize with the rest of the market as they get mature. Third, the different nature of the synchronization with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices is also not confirmed. JEL Classification C22, C32, C58, G19 Keywords IPO, technology stocks, wavelet analysis Author's e-mail martin.kus@outlook.com Supervisor's e-mail vachal@utia.cas.cz