Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited / The impact of non-conventional observations and increased horizontal resolution on the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system of the National Center for Aeronautic Meteorology and Climatology of the Italian Air Force (CNMCA) has been investigated. The present study is part of ongoing research activities whose goal is the improvement of CNMCA's operational numerical weather prediction capabilities through the assimilation of non-conventional observations. Additional data derived from satellite observations, such as 10 m wind retrieved from Quikscat polar-orbit satellite, atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from Meteosat geostationary satellites and manual and automated aircraft observations were used. The NWP system, which is in operational use, is based on an "observation space" version of the 3D-Var method for the objective analysis component (3D-PSAS), while the prognostic component is based on the High Resolution Regional Model (HRM) of the German Meteorological Service (DWD). The analysis and forecast fields derived from the NWP system were objectively evaluated through comparisons with radiosonde and conventional surface observations. Comparisons with parallel runs of the HRM model starting from the 3D-Var operational analysis have showed that each of those observations have a measurable positive impact on forecast skill. / Captain, Italian Air Force

We have developed, tested, and operationally implemented a web based system for collecting and analyzing in nearreal time weather forecast and observational data to assess: (a) the performance of forecasts; and (b) the operational impacts of forecasts. A major goal of the system is to quantify the impacts of weather forecasts on the planning, execution, and outcomes of military operations. Our tests and implementation were focused on the METOC support provided by Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment (NPMOD) Fallon to Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center (NSAWC) operations at Naval Air Station Fallon. Data are collected by NPMOD Fallon and entered via a web interface into a database at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) where the data are analyzed and results are reported in near-real time. The results include quantitative assessments of: (1) forecasts used in planning NSAWC missions; (2) changes made during mission planning in response to forecasted weather; (3) deviations from mission plans that occurred in response to weather conditions actually encountered; (4) positive and negative impacts on missions due to forecasts; (5) METOC Tactical Decision Aid forecast accuracy and mission impacts; and (6) forecast performance and mission impacts with respect to specific weather factors.

Within the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) area of responsibility, tropical deep convection that is not associated with tropical cyclones can cause significant impacts to operations. In this study, convective indices calculated from five sites in the central and western tropical North Pacific are examined with respect to their ability to predict the onset and intensity of deep convection. Two predictands are utilized: measures of convection derived from surface weather observations and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Blended Rainrate estimates, which are derived from infrared and microwave satellite observations and interpolated to the five sites. Eighteen indices derived from rawinsondes are ranked by predictive skill for specific locations and seasons. Indices that exhibit significant skill are used in a discriminant analysis to define a multivariate experimental tropical convective index, which is then evaluated for each region and season. The multivariate index was not able to discriminate between convective and non-convective environments over the central North Pacific. Although the multivariate index exhibited skill for sites in the tropical western North Pacific during summer, it did not perform better than the highest-ranked single indices. For many of the locations and seasons evaluated, the Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) Index exhibited the most skill.

Thesis (M.S.)--Oregon State University, 2007. / Printout. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 87-88). Also available on the World Wide Web.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Florida State University, 2004. / Advisor: Dr. Xiaolei Zou, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Meteorology. Title and description from dissertation home page (June 18, 2004). Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M. Sc.(Meteorology)) -- University of Pretoria, 2000. / Includes summary. Includes bibliographical references

Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2004. / Thesis advisor(s): Roger T. Williams. Includes bibliographical references (p. 91-95). Also available online.

Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 1990. / Thesis Advisor(s): Wash, Carlyle H. Second Reader: Nuss, Wendell A. "September 1990." Description based on title screen viewed on December 17, 2009. DTIC Descriptor(s): Weather forecasting, satellite meteorology, uncertainty, polarization, ships, coastal regions, light, rates, theses, radar, regression analysis, precipitation, solutions(general), rain, winter, rainfall intensity, storms, equations, cyclones, channels, corrections, temperate regions, cyclogenesis, algorithms, temperature. DTIC Identifier(s): Rainfall intensity, erica project, ssm/i(special sensor microwave/images). Author(s) subject terms: Microwave, ERICA, SSM/I, precipitation forecasting, rain. Includes bibliographical references (p. 81-82). Also available in print.

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