Weaving is defined as the crossing of two or more traffic streams traveling in the same direction along a significant length of the highway without the aid of traffic control devices. The traditional methods used for the design and operational analysis of a highway is the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). These traditional methods in the manual use road geometry and traffic volumes as input and provide an estimate of the speed as an output. TRANSIMS is a new computer simulation package in transportation that can be used as an analysis as well as a planning tool. The Microsimulator in TRANSIMS deals with the actual simulation of traffic on roadways. The intent of this research is to evaluate TRANSIMS Microsimulator and compare it with the traditional Highway Capacity Manual in modeling the weaving sections on a freeway and make recommendations. This research will also compare the modeling strategy and provide analysis of the output. / Master of Science

Traffic simulation is a powerful tool that provides transportation engineers with the ability to test the feasibility and performance of a system before it is implemented and also helps in optimizing the proposed system. Over the past twenty years significant amount of work has been conducted on improving the quality and accuracy of transportation simulation models. Much of this work has been concentrated on microscopic simulation models because they provide traffic engineers greater opportunity to examine the inherently complex, stochastic, and dynamic nature of transportation systems when compared to traditional macroscopic models. In order to test the performance of some of the simulation models, a study is conducted on freeway weaving sections, which are considered to be one of the most complex regions to be modeled and analyzed. The intent of the research is to evaluate TRANSIMS, CORSIM, VISSIM and INTEGRATION and compare them with Highway Capacity Manual, which adopts a traditional methodology for carrying out the operational analysis of a highway system. The statistics collected for the simulation runs include weaving speeds, non-weaving speeds and density of the weaving section. / Master of Science

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The dissertation develops analytical models that estimate the capacity of freeway weaving sections. The analytical models are developed using simulated data that were compiled using the INTEGRATION software. Consequently, the first step of the research effort is to validate the INTEGRATION lane-changing modeling procedures and the capacity estimates that are derived from the model against field observations. The INTEGRATION software is validated against field data gathered by the University of California at Berkeley by comparing the lateral and longitudinal distribution of simulated and field observed traffic volumes categorized by O-D pair on nine weaving sections in the Los Angeles area. The results demonstrate a high degree of consistency between simulated and field observed traffic volumes within the various weaving sections. Subsequently, the second validation effort compares the capacity estimates of the INTEGRATION software to field observations from four weaving sections operating at capacity on the Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW) in Toronto, Canada. Again, the results demonstrate that the capacity estimates of the INTEGRATION software are consistent with the field observations both in terms of absolute values and temporal variability across different days. The error was found to be in the range of 10% between simulated and field observed capacities. Prior to developing the analytical models, the dissertation presents a systematic analysis of the factors that impact the capacity of freeway weaving sections, which were found to include the length of the weaving section, the weaving ratio (a new parameter that is developed as part of this research effort), the percentage of heavy vehicles, and the speed limit differential between freeway and on- and off-ramps. The study demonstrates that the weaving ratio, which is currently defined as the ratio of the lowest weaving volume to the total weaving volume in the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual, has a significant impact on the capacity of weaving sections. The study also demonstrates that the weaving ratio is an asymmetric function and thus should reflect the source of the weaving volume. Consequently, a new definition for the weaving ratio is introduced that explicitly identifies the source of the weaving volume. In addition, the study demonstrates that the length of the weaving section has a larger impact on the capacity of weaving sections for short lengths and high traffic demands. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that there does not exist enough evidence to conclude that the speed limit differential between mainline freeway and on- and off-ramps has a significant impact on weaving section capacities. Finally, the study demonstrates that the HCM procedures model the heavy duty vehicle impacts reasonably well. This dissertation presents the development of new capacity models for freeway weaving sections. In these models, a new definition of the weaving ratio that explicitly accounts for the source of weaving volume is introduced. The proposed analytical models estimate the capacity of weaving sections to within 12% of the simulated data, while the HCM procedures exhibit errors in the range of 114%. Among the newly developed models, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models performs slightly better that the statistical models in terms of model prediction errors. However, the sensitivity analysis results demonstrate unrealistic behavior of the ANN models under certain conditions. Consequently, the use of a statistical model is recommended because it provides a high level of accuracy while providing accurate model responses to changes in model input parameters (good response to the gradient of the input parameters). / Ph. D.