In January 1985, the Canadian Grain Commission licensed a medium quality wheat cultivar, HY320, for production within the new classification "Prairie Spring Wheat". Field trials conducted between 1974 and 1985 have shown that HT320 outperforms Neepawa, a traditional hard wheat variety, by 25 to 30 percent on average. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of this new high yielding variety on production opportunities and incomes for prairie grain farmers and to estimate the share of grain exports that it may command in the future. The study will also provide an estimate of the supply curve for HY320. A linear programming model is developed in which the country is divided into 29 crop regions (22 of which are located in the prairie provinces) and 7 livestock regions for which aggregate activities and constraints are defined. The activities can be divided into three major groups: production, shipping, and marketing activities. The model is sector-wide in the sense that it describes domestic supply and use of major crop and livestock commodities in Canada. The problem is to determine the level of agricultural production which maximizes net returns to the agricultural sector subject to constraints facing the sector. Medium quality wheat is initially introduced into the model by allowing it to compete directly with hard wheat for cropland allocated to wheat production. There is also a limited capacity in the model for the new variety to replace other feed grains and oilseed crops. This constraint was later relaxed in the study. Prices of traditional crops were set at their 1984-85 level based on Thunder Bay. As little medium quality wheat has been sold by the Canadian Wheat Board, there is considerable uncertainty concerning its ultimate price. Consequently, the analysis was performed at eight specific prices between $135/tonne (the lower range for American and Australian medium quality wheat traded on the world market) and $170/tonne (the final realized price for HY320 in 1984-85). These limits correspond to prices of 0.72 and 0.91 relative to the 1984 blended price of high quality wheats ($186/tonne). Results show that although total wheat acreages increase marginally over the price range, class composition changes dramatically. The percentage of medium quality wheat increases from 10% at $130/tonne to 94% at $170/tonne. As the price rises, the new variety becomes profitable to farmers in an increasing number of crop regions. The critical relative price for most regions is between 0.78 and 0.83. When the price is $140/tonne, the new variety is grown in a band from east central Saskatchewan to west central Manitoba. At $160/tonne, it is grown in all prairie regions except in the brown soil zone of south-east Alberta and south-west Saskatchewan. As the price of the new wheat rises, total wheat exports increase, although the quantity of hard wheat exported declines. When the price is $135/tonne, wheat exports, which are up by 5%, consist of 6% medium quality wheat and 94% hard wheat. At $170/tonne, wheat exports have risen by 37%, and 98% of these exports are medium quality. The results indicate that the adoption of the new wheat has a negative impact on the production and export levels of all other grains. Over the price range examined, the increase in net farm income of prairie grain producers varies from $9 million to $715 million. Clearly, any estimate of income effects is sensitive to assumptions regarding relative grain prices. Based on the price of U.S. and Australian medium quality wheat varieties, as well as on market share considerations, the author feels that the export price of Canadian medium quality wheat will be at the lower end of the price range examined, possibly between 0.72 and 0.80 the price of hard wheat, implying gains between $9 million and $155 million for prairie grain producers. Finally, the results of the study have implications for wheat licensing arrangements, marketing strategies, the grain delivery system, the transportation rate structure, farm assistance programs, and the direction of future research. / Land and Food Systems, Faculty of / Graduate

The LIFT Program was introduced by the Canadian Wheat Board and the Federal Cabinet in March of 1970. The program was designed to reduce the number of acres seeded to wheat in the spring of 1970 and thereby reduce the size of wheat stocks in Canada. The objectives of this study of the LIFT Program were; 1. to determine which factors were important in predicting the extent of participation by individual farmers in the LIFT Program; 2. to determine how effective the LIFT Program was in reducing wheat acreage. Data for the study was collected by means of interviewing a random sample of farm operators in the grain growing areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the factors which were most important in predicting the extent of participation in the LIFT Program. The importance of qualitative variables was analysed by chi-square and analysis of variance techniques. The following eight variables were found to be important in predicting the extent of participation in the LIFT Program. 1. number of bushels of wheat on hand per cultivated acre 2. age of operator 3. knowledge of the LIFT Program 4, acres of wheat in 1969 5. grade completed in school by operator's wife 6. "attitude towards change" score 7. attitude towards the LIFT Program, and 8. percentage of summer fallow in the normal crop rotation. These eight variables explained 61.94% of the variation in the extent of participation in the LIFT Program. It was concluded that knowledge of the LIFT Program, attitude towards the LIFT Program, dissemination of information about the program by group methods and by government sources all had an important influence on the extent of participation. It was further concluded that the LIFT Program either directly or indirectly influenced about two thirds of the wheat acreage reduction that occurred in 1970. / Land and Food Systems, Faculty of / Graduate

This dissertation examines the multifaceted and pervasive impact of globalisation on the Canadian public policy environment through a detailed analysis of the monopoly marketing of prairie wheat. The study argues that forces associated with globalisation, working through regionally differentiated configurations of farmer opinion and interest groups amidst varying partisan settings, are key to understanding the changing nature of policy-making processes, structures, and outcomes in the wheat marketing arena. The forces associated with globalisation include the increased presence of transnational corporations, the expansion of international trade regimes, increased interaction and cooperation between Canadian provincial governments and US state governments, the international harmonisation of regulations, advances in transportation technology, and heightened levels of education, knowledge, and information. In attempting to understand how globalisation influences the wheat policy arena, the examination uses a comparative analysis focusing on Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The inter-governmental harmony that had prevailed since the 1940s on the matter of Canadian Wheat Board's (CWB's) wheat monopoly was replaced by conflict by the 1990s as the forces of globalisation washed across the Canadian prairies. The dissertation shows that where the absence of these forces once reinforced the CWB's wheat monopoly, the presence of these forces now poses a formidable challenge to its continuation. Farmer opinion data indicates that a trend away from monopoly selling toward open marketing is present throughout the prairies. Like the presence of the forces of globalisation, anti-monopoly opinion is particularly strong in Alberta. The dissertation will also show how the conflict over monopoly wheat marketing was projected into the policy arena through differentiated sets of interest group configurations and partisan environments. In doing so, the examination points out that institutions, while often providing resistance to change, can also serve as conduits facilitating change. The analysis shows that the public policy network involved with the marketing of prairie wheat, as well as actors within this network, have become increasingly internationalised. The examination indicates that domestic governmental regulation and control have been severely undermined in the wheat marketing arena as north-south ties increasingly undermine and replace the east-west unity previously forged by the National Policy.

This dissertation examines the multifaceted and pervasive impact of globalisation on the Canadian public policy environment through a detailed analysis of the monopoly marketing of prairie wheat. The study argues that forces associated with globalisation, working through regionally differentiated configurations of farmer opinion and interest groups amidst varying partisan settings, are key to understanding the changing nature of policy-making processes, structures, and outcomes in the wheat marketing arena. The forces associated with globalisation include the increased presence of transnational corporations, the expansion of international trade regimes, increased interaction and cooperation between Canadian provincial governments and US state governments, the international harmonisation of regulations, advances in transportation technology, and heightened levels of education, knowledge, and information. In attempting to understand how globalisation influences the wheat policy arena, the examination uses a comparative analysis focusing on Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The inter-governmental harmony that had prevailed since the 1940s on the matter of Canadian Wheat Board's (CWB's) wheat monopoly was replaced by conflict by the 1990s as the forces of globalisation washed across the Canadian prairies. The dissertation shows that where the absence of these forces once reinforced the CWB's wheat monopoly, the presence of these forces now poses a formidable challenge to its continuation. Farmer opinion data indicates that a trend away from monopoly selling toward open marketing is present throughout the prairies. Like the presence of the forces of globalisation, anti-monopoly opinion is particularly strong in Alberta. The dissertation will also show how the conflict over monopoly wheat marketing was projected into the policy arena through differentiated sets of interest group configurations and partisan environments. In doing so, the examination points out that institutions, while often providing resistance to change, can also serve as conduits facilitating change. The analysis shows that the public policy network involved with the marketing of prairie wheat, as well as actors within this network, have become increasingly internationalised. The examination indicates that domestic governmental regulation and control have been severely undermined in the wheat marketing arena as north-south ties increasingly undermine and replace the east-west unity previously forged by the National Policy. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate