The Honourable Mr. Ralph Loffmark, British Columbia's Minister of Trade and Commerce, has taken the position that demand for woodpulp will greatly exceed the supply during the next five years. On the other hand, leaders of British Columbia's pulp and paper industry fear that a large surplus of pulp is inevitable. In this thesis, the difference of opinion was examined by forecasting demand for paper and paperboard for the period of 1965 to 1975. From this estimate was derived the expected requirements for chemical pulp and bleached sulphate market pulp for the same period. The demand for bleached sulphate was then compared with the potential supply, leading to the judgement that a surplus condition will exist. Finally, the principal factors which would affect the financial outcome for an independent bleached sulphate pulp mill were analyzed. The conclusion was reached that an independent firm would be profitable in spite of the anticipated surplus. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The major objective of this study was to determine the outlook of the British Columbia kraft pulp industry for the period 1969 - 1974. To attain this objective and develop the necessary perspective, the global economy and particularly world trade developments were studied. An historical analysis of world economic variables was made and then, where possible, projections into the future made. From these studies, specific applications to the British Columbia industry were given. Consequently, the approach of this study was to begin with general global considerations and then proceed to more specific items pertaining to the British Columbia industry. The global demand trends for kraft pulp were obtained by studying the major kraft pulp consuming areas individually. Other kraft pulp producing areas of the world were analyzed to see what portion of potential demand they would be able to supply on competitive terms with British Columbia. As the perspective of the study narrowed, it focused on Canada. This country's historic economic and future potential were analyzed in detail. Recent rapid growth trends were noted and their expansionary effect on British Columbia's economy noted. This study revealed that previous forecasters generally understated future economic growth, particularly in the area of world trade. Consequently, a more liberal attitude was adopted in this analysis. On the basis of future reductions in tariffs, particularly the Kennedy Round cuts in the projection period, the mood of this forecast is one of optimism. Buoyant economic conditions are projected based on premises that state no abrupt changes in world affairs should be expected in the next five years. Global kraft pulp demand is expected to grow at least at the same rate as the world GNP growth. The growth rate in economic output has not been too much alike for all countries and consequently the average global GNP growth has given only a rough indication of kraft pulp consumption. Disproportionate GNP growth in the countries is forecast for the next five years. The industrialized countries will continue to grow faster than the less-developed countries. Most of the growth in kraft pulp demand will occur in the industrialized countries, of which the most promising areas are in Europe and Japan. Because the traditional sources for European markets are approaching their raw material limits, substitution from abroad should occur, consequently the demand for British Columbia kraft pulp should increase at a faster rate than overall global demand. The overall growth rate for British Columbia kraft pulp is expected to continue close to its historic average annual rate of 16%. The growth in British Columbia however has characteristically run in cycles and the secondary trend has been accentuated by industry moods of optimism and pessimism. In the last two years pessimism resulting from over-supply has tempered the overall general growth and a trough in the cyclical pattern is forecast for 1970 or 1971. The market is currently firming; consequently construction and expansion of mills is expected to accelerate and a peak in capacity growth should occur in the latter portion of the five-year projection period. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

A study in economic geography, this thesis attempts to determine the importance of water for process supply and effluent disposal in industrial location decisions. It is postulated that industry faces physical, institutional, and technologic-economic constraints when evaluating the water component in location problems. Each of these three constraints is analyzed and evaluated for British Columbia's pulp and paper industry, with a view to discovering its effect on the range of spatial choice enjoyed by firms. A number of general conclusions emerge from the investigation. Although a theoretic location proof is not offered, the study raises a number of arguments which indicate water has been over-emphasized in industrial location decisions, and that industry exhibits greater spatial mobility regarding water requirements than is contended in the geographical and technical literature. Of the three constraints, it appears that those of a technologic-economic nature impose the severest limitations on spatial choice; physical, the least. Institutional regulations are found to provide industry with incorrect signals for decision making — the suggestion is offered that effluent control programs based upon economic rather than biological criteria would remove this problem. The implications of the above conclusions for future geographic inquiry regarding water management and development is considered in the concluding section of the study. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

The purpose of this thesis was to analyse the supply of pulp and paper products in the three major producing provinces of Canada, namely British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. A translog restricted profit function and its first partial derivatives were estimated using the iterative seemingly unrelated regressions procedure. Derived demand equations for energy, fibre, labour and supply equations for net market pulp, newsprint and 'other paper and paperboard", (net market pulp and 'all paper and paperboard' for British Columbia) were obtained with net supplies as a function of each input and output price. The success of the model in representing the industry was mixed. Derived demand own price elasticities were, in almost all cases, negative as expected a priori. Negative own price elasticities were also found in many end product supply functions suggesting a misspecification of the supply relationship. The unexpected supply function results bring up questions about the degree of competitiveness in pulp and paper markets, and thus the validity of using the perfectly competitive market assumption in empirical studies. Finally the model was evaluated in the context of using the results in a spatial equilibrium model of the North American pulp and paper sector. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate