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1	Predictive Analytics of Organizational Decisions and the Role of Rationality Barfar, Arash 19 November 2015 (has links) How can we predict key decisions made by organizations in the presence of big data and on-demand information? In this dissertation we exploit a large repository of B2B real-time transactional data with service quality indicators and present evidence that organizational decision analytics apply both rational and boundedly-rational (i.e. behavioral) economic models. The dissertation’s findings demonstrate that both utility and heuristic models, respectively, play significant roles in predicting organizational decisions on churn, a key decision in this context. In the presence of a large data set the assumed rationality of organizations appears to provide accurate predictions in uncontrolled experiences and selected boundedly-rational decision rules appear to cause somatic states that make organizations more sensitive to past total qualities of service. This dissertation makes significant new contributions to the understanding of how organizations can effectively use big data to make key operational decisions. As a managerial implication, organizations must be alert to heuristics that might exacerbate the impact of total service pain on customer’s decision to churn. heuristics adaptive toolbox churn somatic markers Pareto optimal sets skylines Databases and Information Systems
2	An investigation into the integration of qualitative and quantitative techniques for addressing systemic complexity in the context of organisational strategic decision-making McLucas, Alan Charles, Civil Engineering, Australian Defence Force Academy, UNSW January 2001 (has links) System dynamics modelling has been used for around 40 years to address complex, systemic, dynamic problems, those often described as wicked. But, system dynamics modelling is not an exact science and arguments about the most suitable techniques to use in which circumstances, continues. The nature of these wicked problems is investigated through a series of case studies where poor situational awareness among stakeholders was identified. This was found to be an underlying cause for management failure, suggesting need for better ways of recognising and managing wicked problem situations. Human cognition is considered both as a limitation and enabler to decision-making in wicked problem environments. Naturalistic and deliberate decision-making are reviewed. The thesis identifies the need for integration of qualitative and quantitative techniques. Case study results and a review of the literature led to identification of a set of principles of method to be applied in an integrated framework, the aim being to develop an improved way of addressing wicked problems. These principles were applied to a series of cases in an action research setting. However, organisational and political barriers were encountered. This limited the exploitation and investigation of cases to varying degrees. In response to a need identified in the literature review and the case studies, a tool is designed to facilitate analysis of multi-factorial, non-linear causality. This unique tool and its use to assist in problem conceptualisation, and as an aid to testing alternate strategies, are demonstrated. Further investigation is needed in relation to the veracity of combining causal influences using this tool and system dynamics, broadly. System dynamics modelling was found to have utility needed to support analysis of wicked problems. However, failure in a particular modelling project occurred when it was found necessary to rely on human judgement in estimating values to be input into the models. This was found to be problematic and unacceptably risky for sponsors of the modelling effort. Finally, this work has also identified that further study is required into: the use of human judgement in decision-making and the validity of system dynamics models that rely on the quantification of human judgement. accidents adaptive toolbox Black Hawk business process re-engineering bounded rationality BPR CATWOE causality causal loop diagram cognition complexity complex strategic problems cognitive mapping combat training centre concept mapping decision-making decision support systems defence preparedness double loop learning dynamic behaviour dynamic complexity feedback feedback loop feedback structure helicopter crash heuristic influence diagram IISD learning Katie Bender knowledge managerial cognition defence materiel naturalistic decision making project management qualitative modelling quantitative modelling recognition-primed decision making risk risk management root definition Royal Canberra Hospital situation awareness soft systems methodology strategy strategy development system dynamics front-end tool system dynamics modelling systems theory systems thinking systemic problems wicked problems
3	An investigation into the integration of qualitative and quantitative techniques for addressing systemic complexity in the context of organisational strategic decision-making McLucas, Alan Charles, Civil Engineering, Australian Defence Force Academy, UNSW January 2001 (has links) System dynamics modelling has been used for around 40 years to address complex, systemic, dynamic problems, those often described as wicked. But, system dynamics modelling is not an exact science and arguments about the most suitable techniques to use in which circumstances, continues. The nature of these wicked problems is investigated through a series of case studies where poor situational awareness among stakeholders was identified. This was found to be an underlying cause for management failure, suggesting need for better ways of recognising and managing wicked problem situations. Human cognition is considered both as a limitation and enabler to decision-making in wicked problem environments. Naturalistic and deliberate decision-making are reviewed. The thesis identifies the need for integration of qualitative and quantitative techniques. Case study results and a review of the literature led to identification of a set of principles of method to be applied in an integrated framework, the aim being to develop an improved way of addressing wicked problems. These principles were applied to a series of cases in an action research setting. However, organisational and political barriers were encountered. This limited the exploitation and investigation of cases to varying degrees. In response to a need identified in the literature review and the case studies, a tool is designed to facilitate analysis of multi-factorial, non-linear causality. This unique tool and its use to assist in problem conceptualisation, and as an aid to testing alternate strategies, are demonstrated. Further investigation is needed in relation to the veracity of combining causal influences using this tool and system dynamics, broadly. System dynamics modelling was found to have utility needed to support analysis of wicked problems. However, failure in a particular modelling project occurred when it was found necessary to rely on human judgement in estimating values to be input into the models. This was found to be problematic and unacceptably risky for sponsors of the modelling effort. Finally, this work has also identified that further study is required into: the use of human judgement in decision-making and the validity of system dynamics models that rely on the quantification of human judgement. accidents adaptive toolbox Black Hawk business process re-engineering bounded rationality BPR CATWOE causality causal loop diagram cognition complexity complex strategic problems cognitive mapping combat training centre concept mapping decision-making decision support systems defence preparedness double loop learning dynamic behaviour dynamic complexity feedback feedback loop feedback structure helicopter crash heuristic influence diagram IISD learning Katie Bender knowledge managerial cognition defence materiel naturalistic decision making project management qualitative modelling quantitative modelling recognition-primed decision making risk risk management root definition Royal Canberra Hospital situation awareness soft systems methodology strategy strategy development system dynamics front-end tool system dynamics modelling systems theory systems thinking systemic problems wicked problems

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