M.Ing. / The low level of living standard of South Africa's black population is a characteristic of its history. The economic growth and development of any country rely on its factors of production. The main factor of production that can not be neglected is its labour force. The labour force of South Africa is plagued by its history, where the strategy of the past government of that era was to ensure that the black population remains uneducated. South Africa has however moved beyond its past and is looking into the future where its people can live in harmony. The majority of the population fall between the ages of 15-35 classified as youth. Unfortunately the highest unemployment rate occurs amongst the black youth of South Africa. The challenge South Africa faces is to alleviate poverty and the high rate of unemployment. The focus is to boost the work force by changing the skills profile of the people, which is currently enforced by the government through the Skills Development Act. The study undertaken indicated that to achieve a better life for all a paradigm shift in the educational system of the country must be initiated. A much needed technical skills development is required. However the long term remedy could be to ensure that the schools provide quality learners who will be able to be utilised in the work place. Another important factor of production is technology innovation, the only set-back is that there is a small community of engineers in the country and the enrolment figures for this field of study are not promising. One of the root causes of this is the low percentage of mathematics and physical science learners completing school. As a result there are a low percentage of learners moving into a technical field of study especially engineering. One of ways to unlock South Africa's economic growth is an investment in its people and engineers are the most suitable custodians. The engineer can drive technology which is one of the portals to techno-economic growth. While humanity shares one planet, it is the planet on which there are two worlds, the world of the rich and the world of the poor. Raanan Weitz, 1986. We cannot rebuild our society at the expense and standard of living of ordinary men and women. We cannot develop at the expense of social justice. We cannot compete without a floor of basic human standards. Nelson Mandela The school in many underdeveloped countries is a reflection and a fruit of the surrounding underdevelopment, from which arises its deficiency, its quantitative and qualitative poverty. But little by little, and there lies the really serious risk, the school in these underdeveloped countries risks becoming in turn a factor of underdevelopment. Joseph Kizerbo, former Minister of Education, Burkino Faso

This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread's predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and IO-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it's best predictive power is seen at two quarters. Results from the standard probit model and the modified pro bit model with a lagged dependent variable are somewhat similar, although the latter model improves forecasts at shorter horizons up to 3 months. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth is a noisy indicator and does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All-Share index can provide information for up to 12 months but does not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the spread performs better at longer horizons. Based on the results from the study, it appears that changes in monetary policy explain the yield spread's predictive power. This is because the yield spread loses its explanatory power when combined with a variable representing the monetary policy stance of the central bank.

Many research papers have documented the positive relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future real economic activity in different countries and different time periods. One explanation of this link is based on monetary policy. The forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is based on the fact that interest rates reflect the expectations of investors about the future economic situation when deciding about their plans for consumption and investment. This thesis examined the predictive ability of the term structure of interest rates on economic activity, and the effects of different monetary policy regimes on the predictive ability of the term spread. The South African experience offers a unique opportunity to examine this issue, as the country has experienced numerous monetary policy frameworks since the 1970s. The study employed the Generalised Method Moments technique, since it is considered to be more efficient than Ordinary Least Squares. Results presented in this thesis established that the term structure successfully predicted real economic activity during the entire research period with the exception of the last sub-period (2000-2004) when using the multivariate model. In the periods of financial market liberalisation and interest rates deregulation the term structure was found to be a better predictor of economic activity in South Africa. These findings emphasise the importance of considering the prevailing economic environment in testing the term structure theory.

This research is born out of recognition of the challenges Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) in the private sector faces in South Africa, with preferential procurement being one of the components of South Africa's Broad Based Black Economic Empowerment Strategy. Over the past years, South Africa has witnessed the birth of a new economy, one that allows for investment in its people, makes provision for sustainable growth through skills transfer and development, and ensures economic empowerment. The focus of this research is the Preferential Procurement strategy implemented at DaimlerChrysler South Africa (DCSA) as part of its overall Black Economic Empowerment strategy, the perceptions and expectations of how the current BEE preferential procurement strategy should work versus the perceived performance of how it is working. An official definition of Black Economic Empowerment is presented in the study, followed by barriers to growth of BEE suppliers. The aim of defining Black Economic Empowerment is to provide a good reference point against which an organization like DaimlerChrysler can assess the implementation of its preferential procurement programmes. Having discussed the above, there will be a reflection on government scorecard and a brief discussion of the two charters namely, mining and financial services charter. The study also presents the following requirements for a successful BEE corporate strategy: Strategic intent; External Balanced Scorecard; Financial Assistance; Skills development; Communication. A research methodology for conducting this study and data analysis is presented, followed by limitations of the study and recommendations for further research. It is expected that the knowledge gained from this study will help to I. Demonstrate the need to change perceptions and behaviour regarding Black Economic Empowerment. 2. Assist procurement officials to include BEE objectives into their procurement strategy. 3. Identify policy implications and assist in improving DCSA's Black Economic Empowerment Procurement strategy.

Local Economic Development (LED) is an applied economic development strategy which seeks to address site-specific needs through locally appropriate solutions. In this thesis, the faith being accorded to the potential of LED in South Africa is critically examined. The study is based on a detailed examination of the experience of regional development and several emerging cases of LED in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. High levels of poverty and unemployment necessitate and justify innovative approaches to address such problems. The thesis examines the potential of LED strategies and identifies applied policy guidelines which can help address the Province's development needs. The theoretical framework of this research is based on a critical examination of international and South African literature dealing with development issues, LED and localities theory. A detailed documentary examination of early LED endeavours and the experience of regional development in the present century was undertaken. Results suggest that LED is not a new concept and that regional development, through its political bias, achieved only limited success. Contemporary examples of LED were identified and examined through detailed site-specific investigations. This was carried out through the use of semistructured interviews supplemented by participatory rural appraisal and questionnaire surveys which served as a means to triangulate the results. The research findings indicate that regional development, as applied in the study area, did not lead to the establishment of a permanent industrial base. In terms of the concept of LED, it is apparent that it has allowed for socio-political empowerment but has only improved economic conditions in the more well-endowed case-studies. In these areas, positive antecedent conditions and the key role played by community supportive nongovernmental organizations is apparent. Despite the limited degree of success which many initiatives attain, the thesis regards LED as a development alternative for areas which are unlikely to draw in external investment. Some of the key contributions of the thesis include the advancement of a refined typology of LED, the development of a research schedule to investigate and assess LED initiatives and the postulation of appropriate development guidelines and theoretical constructs.

There has been some concern that the pace of expectations being built up regarding the transfer of ownership of the economy into the hands of the previously disadvantaged was not allowing for the due diligence and analysis of the implications of such transactions. Tax legislation relating to the transfer of assets is also not seen to be consistently conducive to this process. The focus of this thesis is taxation and a critical analysis of how the current tax legislation affects most of the transactions which usually form the basis of black economic empowerment. It is argued that tax policy is one of the fundamental instruments available to government to encourage the process of black economic empowerment. It is therefore important to assess whether or not current tax legislation is supportive of the process of black economic empowerment and to suggest ways in which it can be amended to serve this purpose. By means of a literature review and a case study of a Black Economic Empowerment deal in the financial sector, the thesis examines various sections of the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962, which may have a bearing on black economic empowerment transactions and structures, including corporate restructuring rules, the taxation of trusts, inter-company loans, the use of hybrid financial instruments, the taxation of small business corporations, employee share incentive schemes, connected persons rules and value-shifting arrangements, the general deduction formula and the deductibility of interest incurred on amounts raised to acquire shares. It appears that although some aspects of the current tax legislation lend themselves to assisting black economic empowerment transactions, there are still areas where much improvement is required. / KMBT_363

This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.

The history of economic thought is ‘flooded’ with neo-classical accounts despite the fact that neoclassical economics did not occupy history alone. This has caused the discourses on ‘lost alternatives’ to be relegated as the deterministic ‘straight line’ neo-classical historical discourses are elevated. Globally hegemonic neo-classical discourse aided this phenomenon as it served to subordinate any counterhegemonic local discursive processes towards alternatives. This study is premised on the theme of non-neoclassical ‘lost alternatives’ using the post-apartheid South Africa as a case study. Emerging from the apartheid regime, the impetus towards non-neoclassical redistributive policies was strong in South Africa but this did not gain traction as the ANC’s ‘growth through redistribution’ was replaced by globally hegemonic discourse which favoured ‘redistribution through growth’. This thesis postulates the idea of two waves of ‘internal’ discursive formations; capturing the transition to democracy up to 1996 as the first wave and the period from 2005 to about 2009 as the second wave. The developmental state paradigm (DSP) emerged as the central heterodox paradigm with ideas such as industrial policy, welfare, and social dialogue/compacts being main elements. The DSP was expressly chosen in the early 1990s, the first period of strong internal discursive formation, but faded as neo-classical policies, epitomised through GEAR, dominated the policy space. The DSP discourse gained vitality in the second wave of internal discursive formation (2005-2009) and it was associated with the subsequent Zuma’s administration. The study illustrates that the DSP has failed to be fully developed into a practical framework but remained only at rhetorical level with the phrase ‘developmental state’ inserted into government policy documents and documents of ANC as a ruling party. The thesis further illustrates that the DSP fared well ideologically because of its inclination to the ideology of ‘developmentalism’ tended to trump any socialist inclined policies such as a generous welfare regime. The thesis rebuts the notion of the DSP in South Africa which has only been amorphously developed with the phrase ‘developmental state’ becoming a mere buzzword. The thesis argues that the DSP in the 21st century is much more complex and the growing ‘tertiarisation’ of the economy makes the Social Democratic Paradigm SDP’s capability centric approach much more relevant for South Africa. The study goes further to argue that a (SDP) is much more suitable alternative for addressing South African colonial/apartheid legacies and consolidation of democracy.

This study analyses whether the advent of strike action has an effect on the value and volatility of the South African Rand compared with the US Dollar. The literature suggests that strike action can have a significant effect on the exchange rate in terms of either value or volatility, and consequences can result that cause inefficiencies in the economy; inhibiting employment and economic growth. Strike action has become common place in South Africa, with 2012 alone recording 99 strikes, 45 of which were “wildcat” or unprotected strikes. This study uses GARCH and Intervention Analyses to determine what the resulting effects of the strikes might be on the exchange rate. The analysis used ZAR/USD exchange rate data for the period January 2000 to October 2013, and covered 72 of the most significant strikes in terms of lost man-days. The results are mixed, suggesting that the effects of strikes do not always conform to expectations (increased volatility and a depreciation in the Rand), and that outside factors affecting the global economy may have a more significant effect on the exchange rate than strikes on their own.

Economic development remains elusive for many world economies, but especially those of African countries. The current global inequalities in terms of GNP per capita and human living standards between developed and developing nations have ensured that the challenges of food insecurities are only some of the many negative experiences of underdevelopment in the African continent. Hence, delivery pressures are increasing on policy makers and researchers to provide tangible and timely economic solutions to the resilient state of underdevelopment. In the policy fights against the challenges posed by a lack of development in South Africa, the agricultural sector has in the past and continues in the present to play a central role. Such is the case because the majority of citizens rely on agricultural production activities for their livelihoods. For instance, even though the sector only contributed four percent towards the national Gross Domestic Product in 2006, in the Eastern Cape Province, more than seventy percent of the total population resided in rural areas. Moreover, in 2004 more than sixty percent of the national formal and informal employment levels were found in the sector. These economic indicators do not only reinforce the assertions that high levels of geographical and sectoral inequalities exist in the country’s economy, but they also illustrate the importance of the agricultural sector in public policy attempts, which are aimed at achieving food security alongside long-term developmental objectives. Some economists, especially the proponents of institutionalism, have argued that most of the recommendations to public policy interventions from mainstream economic research endeavours are not adequately helpful. The recommendations generally lack well considered and socially effective ideas, mainly because there remains some level of ignorance about the impacts that institutions have on economic and social systems. Some argue that this ignorance is reflected in (flawed) hedonistic and rationalist assumptions made about economic actors and in the methodological thinking of many research designs and economic analyses. The misuse of formal tools and statistical methods, for example, are some of the important factors, which have led to failures of the discipline of economics to provide effective policy solutions to problems of underdevelopment and poverty, especially in poor country environments. The thesis, having taken account of the majority of criticisms levelled against the classical and new-classical economic schools of thought, argues that the discipline as a whole lacks a paradigmatic integration of institutional and new-classical economic perspectives to offer appropriate guidelines for a methodology aimed at achieving socially responsive research outputs. The lack of this integration has resulted in a skewed selection of methods by economists, which are employed in research without a supportive and in-depth understanding of institutional and social factors. To support the thesis, a more effective and integrated framework for economic research is developed and presented with case study illustrations in a cumulative manner. The 20th century history of agricultural policies in South Africa, the agricultural and institutional case studies from the Eastern Cape Province alongside reviews of other agricultural studies are all used in presenting a case for rigorous institutional investigations in general economic research. These are also used in developing the proposed integrated framework, which aims to give guidance in developing research methods, which are more socially responsive. Having shown the usefulness of the proposed research framework, the thesis recommends that public policy interventions (at national and local levels) should aim to eliminate all types of institutions which have high associated transactional costs. The interventions should also encourage the emergence and growth of the types of institutions, which present the lowest costs to initiatives of economic development. In the primary case studies from the Eastern Cape Province, the insecurity of land tenure and the various local initiatives of business ventures are highlighted as two examples of the types of institutions, which respectively present high and low transactional costs to local initiatives of agricultural and economic development.