Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / This research aims at developing a different kind of virtual world that is dynamically designed and implemented as needed. Currently, most virtual world designs are considered static. Similar to the physical world, these worlds are pre-defined prior to their use. The resultant environments serve certain purposes but do not take into consideration possible changes to the purposes during their use, changes which often occur when the occupants interact with the environments and with each other. Virtual worlds as networked environments can be flexibly configured and programmed. This flexibility makes it possible to consider virtual world designs in terms of dynamics and autonomy, reflecting the changing needs of different moments. To achieve dynamic designs of virtual worlds, this study applies a computational approach using rational design agents. A Generative Design Agent (GDA) model is developed that specifies computational processes for reasoning and designing in virtual worlds. The GDAs serve as personal design agents to the virtual world occupants. Design formalisms for virtual worlds are also addressed. The design component of a GDA is supported by the application of a generative design grammar. On one hand, generative design grammars serve as the generative force to be applied by the GDAs for virtual world design automation. On the other hand, each grammar defines coherent stylistic characterisations shared by the virtual world designs it generates. The technical outcomes of the research consist of the GDA model and a generative design grammar framework. The framework provides guidelines and strategies to designers for developing generative design grammars that produce different design languages for virtual worlds, rather than predefine every detail of all possible virtual world designs. GDAs monitor the virtual worlds and the various activities that occur in the worlds, interpret the occupants’ needs in the virtual worlds and the state of the worlds based on these observations, hypothesise design goals in order to satisfy these needs, and finally apply generative design grammars to provide virtual world designs for the moment, or initiate other actions in the worlds, according to the current design goals, on behalf of the occupants. The development of the GDA model and the generative design grammar framework provides new perspectives for understanding and developing virtual worlds. The GDA model challenges the conventional way that virtual worlds are designed and implemented, and this leads to dynamic designs of virtual worlds. The generative design grammar framework provides a computational approach to formally defining design languages for virtual worlds.

Market makers are unique entities in a market ecosystem. Unlike other participants that have exposure (either speculative or endogenous) to potential future states of the world, market making agents either endeavor to secure a risk-free profit or to facilitate trade that would otherwise not occur. In this thesis we present a principled theoretical framework for market making along with applications of that framework to different contexts. We begin by presenting a synthesis of two concepts—automated market making from the artificial intelligence literature and risk measures from the finance literature—that were developed independently. This synthesis implies that the market making agents we develop in this thesis also correspond to better ways of measuring the riskiness of a portfolio—an important application in quantitative finance. We then present the results of the Gates Hillman Prediction Market (GHPM), a fielded large-scale test of automated market making that successfully predicted the opening date of the new computer science buildings at CMU. Ranging over 365 possible opening days, the market’s large event partition required new advances like a novel span-based elicitation interface. The GHPM uncovered some practical flaws of automated market makers; we investigate how to rectify these failures by describing several classes of market makers that are better at facilitating trade in Internet prediction markets. We then shift our focus to notions of profit, and how a market maker can trade to maximize its own account. We explore applying our work to one of the largest and most heavily-traded markets in the world by recasting market making as an algorithmic options trading strategy. Finally, we investigate optimal market makers for fielding wagers when good priors are known, as in sports betting or insurance.

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / This research aims at developing a different kind of virtual world that is dynamically designed and implemented as needed. Currently, most virtual world designs are considered static. Similar to the physical world, these worlds are pre-defined prior to their use. The resultant environments serve certain purposes but do not take into consideration possible changes to the purposes during their use, changes which often occur when the occupants interact with the environments and with each other. Virtual worlds as networked environments can be flexibly configured and programmed. This flexibility makes it possible to consider virtual world designs in terms of dynamics and autonomy, reflecting the changing needs of different moments. To achieve dynamic designs of virtual worlds, this study applies a computational approach using rational design agents. A Generative Design Agent (GDA) model is developed that specifies computational processes for reasoning and designing in virtual worlds. The GDAs serve as personal design agents to the virtual world occupants. Design formalisms for virtual worlds are also addressed. The design component of a GDA is supported by the application of a generative design grammar. On one hand, generative design grammars serve as the generative force to be applied by the GDAs for virtual world design automation. On the other hand, each grammar defines coherent stylistic characterisations shared by the virtual world designs it generates. The technical outcomes of the research consist of the GDA model and a generative design grammar framework. The framework provides guidelines and strategies to designers for developing generative design grammars that produce different design languages for virtual worlds, rather than predefine every detail of all possible virtual world designs. GDAs monitor the virtual worlds and the various activities that occur in the worlds, interpret the occupants’ needs in the virtual worlds and the state of the worlds based on these observations, hypothesise design goals in order to satisfy these needs, and finally apply generative design grammars to provide virtual world designs for the moment, or initiate other actions in the worlds, according to the current design goals, on behalf of the occupants. The development of the GDA model and the generative design grammar framework provides new perspectives for understanding and developing virtual worlds. The GDA model challenges the conventional way that virtual worlds are designed and implemented, and this leads to dynamic designs of virtual worlds. The generative design grammar framework provides a computational approach to formally defining design languages for virtual worlds.

Digital games are part of our culture and have gained significant attention over the last decade. The growing capabilities of home computers, gaming consoles and mobile phones allow current games to visualise 3D virtual worlds, photo-realistic characters and the inclusion of complex physical simulations. The growing computational power of those devices enables the usage of complex algorithms while visualising data. Therefore, opportunities arise for developers of interactive products such as digital games which introduce new, challenging and exciting elements to the next generation of highly interactive software systems. Two of those challenges, which current systems do not address adequately, are design support for creating Intelligent Virtual Agents and more believable non-player characters for immersive game-play. We start in this thesis by addressing the agent design support first and then extend the research, addressing the second challenge. The main contributions of this thesis are: - The POSH-SHARP system is a framework for the development of game agents. The platform is modular, extendable, offers multi-platform support and advanced software development features such as behaviour inspection and behaviour versioning. The framework additionally integrates an advanced information exchange mechanism supporting loose behaviour coupling. - The Agile behaviour design methodology integrates agile software development and agent design. To guide users, the approach presents a work-flow for agent design and guiding heuristics for their development. - The action selection augmentation ERGo introduces a "white-box" solution to altering existing agent frameworks, making their agents less deterministic. It augments selected behaviours with a bio-mimetic memory to track and adjust their activation over time. With the new approach to agent design, the development of "deepagent" behaviour for digital adversaries and advanced tools supporting their design is given. Such mechanisms should enable developers to build robust non-player characters that act more human-like in an efficient and robust manner. Within this thesis, different strategies are identified to support the design of agents in a more robust manner and to guide developers. These discussed mechanisms are then evolved to develop and design Intelligent Virtual Agents. Because humans are still the best measurement for human-likeness, the evolutionary cycle involves feedback given by human players.

"Concurrent Engineering (CE) has already initiated a cultural change in the design and manufacturing of new products. It is expected to lead to better engineered and faster built products. But, in order for a company to take advantage of the power of CE, the members of product development teams have to be educated in the CE method of product development and how decisions made about one aspect of a design can affect other aspects. They also have to be educated in the usefulness of the tools that can be used for CE. Those tools include intelligent agents which can be used to offer design suggestions and criticisms. The goal of this project is to build a computer system which will simulate a design environment and demonstrate the essential aspects of CE, in a way that they can be intuitively understood. It is supported by a grant from the Competitive Product Development Institute at the Digital Equipment Corporation."

"A Single Function Agent (SiFA) is a software agent, with only one function, one point of view, and one target object on which to act. For example, an agent might be a critic (function) of material (target) from the point of view of cost. This research investigates the possibilities and implications of the SiFA concept, and analyzes the definition language, negotiation language and negotiation strategies of the agents. After defining a domain-independent set of agent types we investigated negotiation, analyzing which pairs/groups of agents have reason to communicate, and what the information passed between them should be, as well as what knowledge was needed to support the negotiation. A library for the CLIPS expert system shell was built, which allows development of SiFA based expert systems from domain independent templates. We will present two such systems, one as implemented for the domain of ceramic component material selection and the other (in development) for simple sailboat design. The effect of negotiation on the design process and the results are discussed, as well as directions for future research into SiFAs."

"Design is a very complicated and ill-defined problem solving activity. Routine parametric design is a more restricted and well-defined version of design problems. Even this restricted version requires many different kinds of expert knowledge and the ability to perform a variety of tasks. One approach to solving this restricted version is to use Single Function Agents (SiFAs), each of which can perform a very specialized task, from a single point of view. The ability to represent expertise with different points of view is very important in design. These different points of view usually cause conflicts among agents, and these conflicts need to be resolved in order for the design process to be successful. Therefore, agents need to be capable of detecting and resolving these conflicts. This thesis presents a model of conflicts and negotiations in the SiFA framework. Some extensions to the present state of the SiFA paradigm are introduced. A hierarchy of possible conflicts is proposed and the steps of the negotiation process are discussed. The ability of agents to negotiation in order to resolve conflicts makes SiFA-based design systems more versatile, less brittle, and easier to construct and maintain. Also, the extended SiFA paradigm, where agents have negotiation capabilities leads to many interesting directions for further research. "