L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'étudier les mécanismes de transport des déchets marins flottants ainsi queleur accumulation potentielle en Méditerranée, en s'appuyant sur la modélisation numérique de leur dérive ainsique sur des observations in-situ de leur distribution. La dynamique du transport des déchets marins y estnotamment analysée en terme d'échelles caractéristiques du bassin, en partant de la grande échelle jusqu'auxéchelles côtière et littorale.Dans un premier temps, l'examen d'un ensemble d'expériences Lagrangiennes numériques a permis d'identifierdans le bassin des zones probables d'accumulation non permanentes à grande échelle (Mansui et al., 2015a).L'impact à l'échelle côtière d'un courant de bord (Courant Nord) et des forçages atmosphériques sur ladistribution locale et l'échouage des déchets marins flottants a ensuite pu être estimé en utilisant notammentdes données originales recueillies en mer et à terre (Mansui et al., 2015b, en révision). / The main objective of this work is to study the floating marine debris transport mechanisms and their potentialaccumulation in the Mediterranean Sea, using numerical modelling and in-situ observations of debris. Thetransport dynamics is analysed in terms of typical scales in the basin, from the large scale to the coastal andlocal scales.First, the analysis of a Lagrangian experience data set show the potential existence of non-permanent and largeretention areas (Mansui et al., 2015a). In a second stage, the coastal impact of a boundary current (the NorthernCurrent) and atmospheric forcings on the local distribution and stranding of floating marine litter has beenestimated (Mansui et al., 2015b, under revision), using an original set of data combining offshore sightings andbeaching surveys.

Cells adhere to each other and to the extracellular matrix (ECM) through protein molecules on the surface of the cells. The breaking and forming of adhesive bonds, a process critical in cancer invasion and metastasis, can be influenced by the mutation of cancer cells. Several molecules have been reported to play a crucial role in cellular adhesion and proliferation, and eventually in cancer progression, with TGF-β being one of the most important. In this thesis, we propose a general framework to model cancer cells movement and aggregation, in response to nonlocal social interactions (that is, attraction towards neighbours that are far away, repulsion from those that are near by, and alignment with neighbours at intermediate distances), as well as other molecules' effect, e.g., TGF-β. We develop nonlocal mathematical models describing cancer invasion and metastasis as a result of integrin-controlled cell-cell adhesion and cell-matrix adhesion, for two cancer cell populations with different levels of mutation. The models consist of nonlinear partial differential equations, describing the dynamics of cancer cells and TGF-β dynamics, coupled with nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing the ECM and integrins dynamics. We study our models analytically and numerically, and we demostrate a wide range of spatiotemporal patterns. We investigate the effect of mutation and TGF-β concentration on the speed on cancer spread, as well as the effect of nonlocal interactions on cancer cells' speed and turning behaviour.

Container Line Supply Chain (CLSC), which transports cargo in containers and accounts for approximately 95 percent of world trade, is a dominant way for world cargo transportation due to its high efficiency. However, the operation of a typical CLSC, which may involve as many as 25 different organizations spreading all over the world, is very complex, and at the same time, it is estimated that only 2 percent of imported containers are physically inspected in most countries. The complexity together with insufficient prevention measures makes CLSC vulnerable to many threats, such as cargo theft, smuggling, stowaway, terrorist activity, piracy, etc. Furthermore, as disruptions caused by a security incident in a certain point along a CLSC may also cause disruptions to other organizations involved in the same CLSC, the consequences of security incidents to a CLSC may be severe. Therefore, security analysis becomes essential to ensure smooth operation of CLSC, and more generally, to ensure smooth development of world economy. The literature review shows that research on CLSC security only began recently, especially after the terrorist attack on September 11th, 2001, and most of the research either focuses on developing policies, standards, regulations, etc. to improve CLSC security from a general view or focuses on discussing specific security issues in CLSC in a descriptive and subjective way. There is a lack of research on analytical security analysis to provide specific, feasible and practical assistance for people in governments, organizations and industries to improve CLSC security. Facing the situation mentioned above, this thesis intends to develop a set of analytical models for security analysis in CLSC to provide practical assistance to people in maintaining and improving CLSC security. In addition, through the development of the models, the thesis also intends to provide some methodologies for general risk/security analysis problems under complex and uncertain environment, and for some general complex decision problems under uncertainty. Specifically, the research conducted in the thesis is mainly aimed to answer the following two questions: how to assess security level of a CLSC in an analytical and rational way, and according to the security assessment result, how to develop balanced countermeasures to improve security level of a CLSC under the constraints of limited resources. For security assessment, factors influencing CLSC security as a whole are identified first and then organized into a general hierarchical model according to the relations among the factors. The general model is then refined for security assessment of a port storage area along a CLSC against cargo theft. Further, according to the characteristics of CLSC security analysis, the belief Rule base Inference Methodology using the Evidential Reasoning approach (RIMER) is selected as the tool to assess CLSC security due to its capabilities in accommodating and handling different forms of information with different kinds of uncertainty involved in both the measurement of factors identified and the measurement of relations among the factors. To build a basis of the application of RIMER, a new process is introduced to generate belief degrees in Belief Rule Bases (BRBs), with the aim of reducing bias and inconsistency in the process of the generation. Based on the results of CLSC security assessment, a novel resource allocation model for security improvement is also proposed within the framework of RIMER to optimally improve CLSC security under the constraints of available resources. In addition, it is reflected from the security assessment process that RIMER has its limitations in dealing with different information aggregation patterns identified in the proposed security assessment model, and in dealing with different kinds of incompleteness in CLSC security assessment. Correspondently, under the framework of RIMER, novel methods are proposed to accommodate and handle different information aggregation patterns, as well as different kinds of incompleteness. To validate the models proposed in the thesis, several case studies are conducted using data collected from different ports in both the UK and China. From a methodological point of view, the ideas, process and models proposed in the thesis regarding BRB generation, optimal resource allocation based on security assessment results, information aggregation pattern identification and handling, incomplete information handling can be applied not only for CLSC security analysis, but also for dealing with other risk and security analysis problems and more generally, some complex decision problems. From a practical point of view, the models proposed in the thesis can help people in governments, organizations, and industries related to CLSC develop best practices to ensure secure operation, assess security levels of organizations involved in a CLSC and security level of the whole CLSC, and allocate limited resources to improve security of organizations in CLSC. The potential beneficiaries of the research may include: governmental organizations, international/regional organizations, industrial organizations, classification societies, consulting companies, companies involved in a CLSC, companies with cargo to be shipped, individual researchers in relevant areas etc.