The ability to anticipate and evaluate the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on streamflow regimes is critical to developing proactive strategies that protect aquatic ecosystems. I developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to compare and contrast the effectiveness of integrated stormwater management, or its absence, with two regional growth patterns for maintaining streamflow regimes in the context of climate change. In three adjacent urbanizing watersheds in Oregon's Willamette Valley, I conducted a three-step sequence to: 1) simulate land use change under four future development scenarios with the agent-based model Envision; 2) model resultant hydrological change under the recent past and two future climate regimes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool; and 3) assess scenario impacts on streamflow regimes using 10 ecologically significant flow metrics. I evaluated each scenario in each basin using a flow metric typology based on the magnitude of change in each metric and the degree to which such changes could be mitigated, i.e., insensitive, sensitive and manageable, and sensitive and resistant. My results demonstrated distinct signatures of urbanization and climate change on flow regimes. Urbanization and climate change in isolation led to significant flow alterations in all three basins. Urbanization consistently led to increases in flow regime flashiness and severity of extreme flow events, whereas climate change primarily caused a drying trend. Climate change tended to exacerbate the impacts of urbanization but also mitigated urban impacts on several metrics. The combined impacts of urbanization and climate change caused substantial changes to metric sensitivities, which further differed by basin and climate regime, highlighting the uncertainties of streamflow regime responses to development and the value of spatially explicit modeling that can reveal complex interactions between natural and human systems. Scenario comparisons demonstrated the importance of integrated stormwater management and, secondarily, compact regional growth. My findings reveal the need for regional flow-ecology research that substantiates the ecological significance of each flow metric, develops specific targets for manageable ones, and explores potential remedies for resistant ones. The interdisciplinary modeling framework shows promise as a transferable tool for local watershed management. This dissertation includes previously unpublished co-authored material.

Master of Arts / Department of Geography / John A. Harrington Jr / Environmental degradation is a major concern in agricultural landscapes. Innovative tools and methods will be necessary to identify and deal with the ongoing environmental impacts of past and present agricultural practices. The use of scenarios in environmental modeling is one way to address these concerns. Recently a group of researchers devised a framework for creating future land cover scenarios for two physiographic regions in Iowa. Based on that work, a suite of scenarios were created for Antelope Creek watershed in the Northern Flint Hills of Kansas. The Antelope Creek scenarios represent conditions pre Euro-American settlement, present day, increased intensification of agricultural production, enhancement of water quality, and enhancement of biodiversity. These scenarios were then modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Additional model runs were completed to compare SSURGO and STATSGO soil datasets. Results indicated that reductions in discharge, total suspended sediment and various nitrogen and phosphorus loads could be achieved by implementing modest changes to agricultural management practices. Results also indicated that a higher detail soil dataset such as SSURGO lead to slightly higher loads than with STATSGO data.

The essay is an attempt to make sense of the apparently special relation between self-knowledge and agency. To achieve that goal, the essay translates the account of what it is like to be a human self offered by Sartre into the language of evolutionary psychology. In L’être et le néant, Sartre describes the phenomenology of the self as a series of inescapable choices in a contingent set of circumstances. This essay identifies Sartre’s description with what Baumeister, Maranges and Sjåstad call a matrix of maybe: the mechanism of nonfactual pragmatic prospection found in humans. Consequently, it defines the self as a matrix of maybe operating within a contingency matrix and reflecting on its own operation. Self-knowledge, the essay concludes, seems special because we routinely and erroneously ascribe to the self features of its contingency matrix. Most of our true first-person claims should not be read as I PREDICATE. Instead, they can be explicated as I have to act in a world where C PREDICATE, where C is the relevant part of the contingency matrix.