There are a variety of international issues that disrupt the global trade market, an important one being national policies on the regulation of genetically modified organisms, or GMOs. Many crops have been genetically modified for reasons from herbicide resistance to correcting dietary shortfalls. This study evaluates the United States' exports of corn and soybeans from 1998 to 2016 to identify unusual shocks in trade values. In particular, this study quantifies how the importers' policy stance on the GMO issue impacts bilateral trade values. I estimate a gravity model with both ordinary least squares (OLS) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimations. Residual analysis is used to assess the difference between actual trade and the trade levels predicted by the models. The results suggest that anti-GMO policies reduce trade values by an average of 11%. The largest difference between predictions and actual trade values is seen in corn exports to the European Union. Between 1998 and 2016, this forgone trade in corn was valued at $52.7 billion, which is $2.77 billion per year on average. This value is similar to the annual average value of U.S. exports of corn to Japan in the same period, $2.46 billion. The results have important implications for the agricultural industry. For developing nations, adoption of GMO crops could increase productivity and help alleviate poverty. Ultimately, the decision to adopt is up to the consumer, so the factors of consumer knowledge and opinions of GMOs are not to be ignored. / Master of Science / There are a variety of international issues that disrupt the global trade market, an important one being national policies on the regulation of genetically modified organisms, or GMOs. This study evaluates the United States’ exports of corn and soybeans from 1998 to 2016 to identify unusual drops in trade values. In particular, this study quantifies how the importers’ policy stance on the GMO issue impacts bilateral trade values. I estimate a gravity model with various estimation methods. Residual analysis is used to assess the difference between actual trade and the trade levels predicted by the models. The results suggest that anti-GMO policies reduce trade values by an average of 11%. The largest difference between predictions and actual trade values is seen in corn exports to the European Union. Between 1998 and 2016, this forgone trade in corn was valued at $52.7 billion, which is $2.77 billion per year on average. This value is similar to the annual average value of U.S. exports of corn to Japan in the same period, $2.46 billion. The results have important implications for the agricultural industry. For developing nations, adoption of GMO crops could increase productivity and help alleviate poverty. Ultimately, the decision to adopt is up to the consumer, so the factors of consumer knowledge and opinions of GMOs are not to be ignored.

Imports of fresh fruits and vegetables to the United States have grown by more than 350 percent since 1989. Factors such as rising consumer incomes, the desire for greater variety and availability of fresh produce throughout the year, and a reduction in trade barriers through multi-lateral and bi-lateral trade agreements have contributed to this growth in imports. In addition, since the implementation of the Agreement on Agriculture and the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures from the Uruguay Round of the World Trade Organization negotiations, there have been numerous requests to export fresh fruits and vegetables to the United States. From 1996 to 2008, the United States has granted new market access to 204 exporter/commodity combinations. Given this large increase in new market access, this thesis assesses the success of the new entrants in terms of contributing to the increase in fresh fruit and vegetable imports and whether they exported on a continual basis after gaining import eligibility. In addition, this thesis estimates a gravity model to assess the differences in fresh fruit and vegetable exports from new entrants subject to phytosanitary measures relative to those with no such restrictions in place and to determine whether these effects vary by commodity sector and exporter's size. The major finding of this thesis is that in general, new entrants have contributed little to the growth in U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable imports. For most commodities, new entrants do not provide a significant proportion of imports potentially because new entrants are not able to compete with existing suppliers. This study finds differences in fresh fruit and vegetable exports from new entrants subject to specific phytosanitary treatments relative to entrants with no such restrictions in place. / Master of Science

This thesis estimates the impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs) notified by the importing countries on agricultural trade. The non-tariff measures constitute the technical measures notified under the SPS and TBT agreements and the non-technical measures to trade. Two approaches are used; the inventory approach and the econometric approach which makes use of the gravity model. The inventory results suggest that African countries face more restrictions on their exports than what they impose on their imports. Also, Uganda, Senegal and Mali are among the top twenty most affected importers. The empirical results suggest that the impact of the overall group on non-tariff measures is ambiguous but when measures are disaggregated into technical and non-technical measures, the results show that the technical measures promote agricultural trade and that the non-technical measures restrict trade. Also, imports of industrialized nations from fellow industrialized nations are promoted by the technical measures but are restricted by non-technical measures, while those from non-industrialized countries are affected negatively by both technical and non-technical measures. Out of the five regions considered, Africa faces the largest negative impact by both technical and non-technical measures. / Master of Science

Sverige är ett exportland med lång tradition av handel med omvärlden. För att kunna utnyttja våra absoluta och komparativa fördelar gäller det att vi har god kunskap om vad som påverkar vår handel. Dagens konsumenter har ett stort antal produkter att välja mellan. Handla har aldrig varit lättare och med hjälp av internet är det möjligt att handla varor från andra sidan jordklotet med minimal ansträngning. Vi ställer oss frågan, har vår språkkunskap och kultur en inverkan på den internationella handeln? Denna fråga ska försöka besvaras med hjälp av ett bland de vanligaste verktygen vid skattning av bilateral handel, den så kallade gravitationsmodellen. Gravitationsmodellen är ett bra verktyg då man med små medel kan få en hög förklaringsgrad av handeln. Eftersom kultur innehåller fler dimensioner än språk, som bland annat historia, religion, politik och värderingar, förväntades kultur ha en större inverkan på handeln. Resultatet visar att språk och kultur har en kraftig effekt på handeln och samtliga variabler visade sig vara starkt signifikanta.

The introduction of the single currency (Euro) in Europe has been referred to as the ‘world’s largest economic experiment’ and has led to major research on the effects of the adoption of a common currency on economic activity with considerable emphasis on its effect on trade flows at the macroeconomic level. However, the investigation of the euro effect on individual sectors has received very little attention and this provides the motivation for the research. The main contribution of this thesis is to the sectoral analysis of the single currency’s effect on bi-lateral trade flows, specifically the effects on the transport equipment manufacturing sector. In order to achieve this, a comparison of the different estimation methods applied in the gravity model literature will be employed to investigate this effect and to identify the factors affecting trade in this sector. This study uses a panel data set which comprises the most recent information on bilateral trade for the EU15 countries from 1990 to 2008. This research aims to build on the results obtained in previous studies by employing a more refined empirical methodology and associated tests. The purpose of the tests is to ensure that the euro’s effect on trade is isolated from the other pro- trade policies of the European integration processes, particularly the introduction of the Single Market. The desirable feature of this approach is that, while other studies limit their attention to a particular issue (zero trade flow, time trend, sectoral analysis, cross-correlation, etc.), very few, if any, apply a selection of techniques. Overall, the results demonstrate that the single currency’s effect on trade in this sector is limited with only the fixed effects formulation with year dummy variables showing a significant positive effect of the euro. An obvious policy implication for countries looking to adopt a single currency is that they should be cautious regarding the potential for growth in intra-bloc trade in a particular sector, although they will benefit from the on-going process of integration.

This dissertation spans topics related to global trade, oil prices, optimum currency areas, the eurozone, monetary independence, capital controls and the international monetary policy trilemma. It consists of four chapters and three essays. Chapter one provides a brief summary of all three essays. Chapter two investigates the impact of oil prices on global trade. It is concluded that when oil prices increase, countries start trading relatively more with their neighbors. As an application this chapter provides a new estimate of the eurozone effect on trade. Chapter three continues to study the eurozone and asks whether it is an optimum currency area using the member countries’ desired monetary policies. It is concluded that Greece, Spain, and Ireland have desired policies that are the least compatible with the common euro policy and are therefore the least likely to have formed an optimum currency area with the euro. Chapter four provides a new methodology in testing the international trilemma hypothesis. It is concluded that the trilemma holds in the context of the Asian countries.

The opening up process of the central and eastern European (CEE) countries marked new beginnings in terms of greater integration of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) with Western Europe. Adopting a two-stage out-of-sample gravity equation approach to predicting East West trade patterns, a panel data set of bilateral exports from twelve EU countries to twenty OECD partner countries is estimated over the 1992-2003 period to examine how integrated the CEE countries are with the West European countries. In general, countries which are initially less well-integrated with the EU have strongest trade potential: among the EU accession countries, the potential candidate countries look set to benefit most whereas the mixed trade ratios among the EU associated countries reflect very diverse economic structures. Using a similar approach to project East West FDI patterns, the potential to actual ratios of FDI stocks indicate a very uneven distribution of FDI among the eleven CEE countries. The FDI stock ratios accord with patterns of regional specialisation for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland and suggest greatest FDI potential lies with the two latest accession countries. As the West European countries represents the CEE countries main trading partners and their main sources of FDI, the nature of the trade-direct investment relation among the group of EU OECD countries is of potential importance to the CEE countries. Merging the determinants for both trade and FDI into one model and estimating the merged model as a trade equation and as an FDI equation, the EU OECD patterns of FDI are characterised by both horizontal FDI (HFDI) and vertical FDI (VFDI). The dual role of HFDI and VFDI is supported when the general model of trade and FDI determinants is estimated using an instrumental variables method and when the additional price variables of FDI and trade are interpreted as cross-price elasticity effects. In a competitive world, attracting more FDI to the CEE countries may not only mean catering to the traditional MNE motives, but can also depend on transition-related factors and host country policies. Using a panel data set of bilateral FDI flows from twelve EU countries to eleven CEE countries, the traditional determinants of direct investment along with the liberalisation process and infrastructure endowments are found to significantly affect FDI over the 1994-2003 period.

Trade is largely considered a driving force of economic growth and development of nations. To this end, there is vast and far-reaching research on the subject, especially on matters international. However, research on intra-African trade is lacking in comparison to research on trade amongst the rest of the world, not just developed, but also developing countries alike. That aside there are numerous efforts put in place to enhance and encourage trade within and without the continent. The research presented in this thesis aims to investigate and address three key issues specific to intra-Africa trade. The questions asked are: are the measures currently in place successful in the promotion of intra-Africa trade; is the continent ready for measures about to be implemented and after all that, is trade really the key driving force for economic growth and development within Africa? To answer these questions, the research presented here in this thesis employs the gravity modelling approach, the G-PPP test and develops a macro-economic model which is applied to the Kenyan economy. The results indicate that; yes, trade is significant and important in determining economic growth, and while measures taken thus far such as the creation of Economic Integrations have not been as successful as was envisioned, trade openness continues to be among the most important ways in which trade is encouraged and enhanced, to this end, although the continent is yet to fulfil all the requirements for the formation of a full-blown Economic Union, it is ready for drastic measures such as the formation of a currency union. Literature reveals that this could form the basis of hastening complete integration and harmonization of all systems of the participating economies, thereby benefiting not just trade but also all other sectors of the economies.

Food safety scares affect consumption behavior, and food safety and animal health issues are increasingly impacting international agricultural trade. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral-type disease, and has raised not only the concerns of animal health issue but also food safety issue. Over 58 countries in the world have experienced FMD outbreaks, and pork exports and imports among these countries are largely impacted. This dissertation focuses on how global pork trade is affected by FMD. This dissertation consists of three parts: first, this study specifically focuses on the market of U.S. pork exports. Results show that disease-affected pork importers are potential traders with the U.S., and only importing countries with a vaccination policy are more likely to increase pork imports from the U.S. rather than those importers with a slaughter policy. Second, a further investigation focuses basic hypothesis on import demand of FMD-affected importers by using a gravity model with fixed-effects to show how pork trade is affected by FMD among 186 countries. Results confirm that pork export falls when an exporting country develops FMD. Exporters with a vaccination policy have larger negative impacts than those with a slaughter policy. Further, pork importers that develop FMD and institute a slaughter policy will import more pork, but importers with a vaccination policy import the same level of pork. Third, the findings of part one and two reveal that FMD-free pork exporters face different market opportunities when pork importers have FMD outbreaks. Hence, four major FMD-free pork exporters, such as Canada, U.S., Germany, and Spain, are further investigated. Results confirm that the impacts of foreign FMD have altered pork exporters differently. Germany has gained the most exports during foreign FMD outbreaks in pork importers; the U.S. is second; Spain is third; and Canada is fourth. In sum, this dissertation contributes to the literature of gravity model when endogeneity and heteroskedasticity may coexist, when an extremely large number of zero observations are included, when single commodity for one specific exporter is analyzed, when a spatial econometric approach is compared, and when pork export market has been altered by foreign FMD outbreaks.

This dissertation consists of three essays that examine the impact of various trade policies on the extensive (new trading relationships) and intensive (increase in trade of existing relationships) margins of trade, whereas past studies have been limited to aggregate trade flows. An inquiry into the extensive and intensive margins of trade reveals that total aggregate trade masks the heterogeneous trade creating effect of policy variables. Furthermore, this dissertation also takes into account the econometric issues that have plagued the traditional empirical model that analyzes the impact of these policies on trade. The first chapter examines the impact of hosting and bidding for mega-events on exports. Rose & Spiegel (2011b) find that hosts and unsuccessful bidders (candidates) experience a similar positive impact on total aggregate exports. They attribute the Olympic effect to the signal a country sends when bidding to host the games. This chapter inquires whether this Olympic signal leads to new trading relationships or an increase in trade in existing relationships. The results indicate that only hosts (not candidates) experience a permanent increase in exports at the intensive margin. While hosting the Olympics is consistently correlated with a permanent deepening of existing trade relationships, it is at the expense of the number of trading relationships. The second chapter examines the impact of the World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on the extensive and intensive margin of imports. Accounting for several estimation issues that have plagued the literature, results indicate that the benefit of the WTO is realized entirely through the extensive margin. The results are in line with the literature that attributes WTO to reducing market uncertainty through tariff binds rather than reduction, thus increasing entry in the export market even when the applied protection is unchanged. The third chapter examines the impact of fiscal episodes (fiscal stimuli and consolidation) on the extensive and intensive margins of exports. The results indicate that fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in total exports, while a fiscal stimulus leads to a decrease in total exports. Furthermore, fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in exports solely through the extensive margin.