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Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Neilson Soares Lopes.pdf: 983372 bytes, checksum: 2233d489295cd76cb2d8dcbd78e1e5de (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-08 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / This study applied the techniques of traditional parametric discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis of credit real estate financing transactions where borrowers may or may not have a payroll loan transaction. It was the hit rate compared these methods with the non-parametric techniques based on classification trees, and the methods of meta-learning bagging and boosting that combine classifiers for improved accuracy in the algorithms.In a context of high housing deficit, especially in Brazil, the financing of real estate can still be very encouraged. The impacts of sustainable growth in the mortgage not only bring economic benefits and social. The house is, for most individuals, the largest source of expenditure and the most valuable asset that will have during her lifetime.At the end of the study concluded that the computational techniques of decision trees are more effective for the prediction of payers (94.2% correct), followed by bagging (80.7%) and boosting (or arcing , 75.2%). For the prediction of bad debtors in mortgages, the techniques of logistic regression and discriminant analysis showed the worst results (74.6% and 70.7%, respectively). For the good payers, the decision tree also showed the best predictive power (75.8%), followed by discriminant analysis (75.3%) and boosting (72.9%). For the good paying mortgages, bagging and logistic regression showed the worst results (72.1% and 71.7%, respectively). Logistic regression shows that for a borrower with payroll loans, the chance to be a bad credit is 2.19 higher than if the borrower does not have such type of loan.The presence of credit between the payroll operations of mortgage borrowers also has relevance in the discriminant analysis. / Neste estudo foram aplicadas as técnicas paramétricas tradicionais de análise discriminante e regressão logística para análise de crédito de operações de financiamento imobiliário. Foi comparada a taxa de acertos destes métodos com as técnicas não-paramétricas baseadas em árvores de classificação, além dos métodos de meta-aprendizagem BAGGING e BOOSTING, que combinam classificadores para obter uma melhor precisão nos algoritmos.Em um contexto de alto déficit de moradias, em especial no caso brasileiro, o financiamento de imóveis ainda pode ser bastante fomentado. Os impactos de um crescimento sustentável no crédito imobiliário trazem benefícios não só econômicos como sociais. A moradia é, para grande parte dos indivíduos, a maior fonte de despesas e o ativo mais valioso que terão durante sua vida. Ao final do estudo, concluiu-se que as técnicas computacionais de árvores de decisão se mostram mais efetivas para a predição de maus pagadores (94,2% de acerto), seguida do BAGGING (80,7%) e do BOOSTING (ou ARCING, 75,2%). Para a predição de maus pagadores em financiamentos imobiliários, as técnicas de regressão logística e análise discriminante apresentaram os piores resultados (74,6% e 70,7%, respectivamente). Para os bons pagadores, a árvore de decisão também apresentou o melhor poder preditivo (75,8%), seguida da análise discriminante (75,3%) e do BOOSTING (72,9%). Para os bons pagadores de financiamentos imobiliários, BAGGING e regressão logística apresentaram os piores resultados (72,1% e 71,7%, respectivamente).A regressão logística mostra que, para um tomador com crédito consignado, a chance se ser um mau pagador é 2,19 maior do que se este tomador não tivesse tal modalidade de empréstimo. A presença de crédito consignado entre as operações dos tomadores de financiamento imobiliário também apresenta relevância na análise discriminante.

La dangerosité des défauts électriques et notamment des défauts d’arcs série dans les installations basse tension est connue depuis longtemps et représente une problématique d’actualité. La détection et la localisation de ces défauts constituent ainsi le sujet d’étude de cette thèse. Notons également, qu’à l’heure actuelle, aucun disjoncteur pour la détection des défauts d’arcs n’est équipé de la fonction localisation d’un arc sur la ligne électrique. Plusieurs méthodes de localisation des défauts d’arcs électriques séries ont été proposées dans le travail présenté. La première méthode est basée sur les paramètres d’impédance obtenus à partir des lois de Kirchhoff et ceci sur une ligne expérimentale de 49 m de longueur. La seconde méthode utilise la modélisation de ligne pour obtenir différents vecteurs de signatures utilisés pour entrainer un réseau de neurones. La troisième méthode par transformée en ondelettes est basée sur l’identification des ondes haute fréquence qui apparaissent en présence d’un défaut d’arc série. L’autre contribution majeure de cette thèse est la mise au point d’un algorithme performant de détection de la présence d’un défaut d’arc électrique par analyse du courant de ligne. L’algorithme est conçu pour détecter de manière fiable les défauts d'arc dans les modes de fonctionnement stationnaires et transitoires des appareils ménagers puis dans des configurations complexes de masquage de charges et d'appareils perturbateurs. L’algorithme repose sur l’analyse du courant de ligne par un filtre de Kalman associé à une logique de décision. La technique mise en œuvre, portant sur un seuillage adaptatif à base de logique floue (Fuzzy Logic), entraîne une réduction significative des faux déclenchements / The dangerousness of electrical defects and in particular serial arcing ones in low-voltage installations is well known and represents a topical research issue. The detection and localization of these defects is therefore the subject of this thesis. It should also be noted that, at present time, no circuit-breaker for arc fault detection is equipped with the arc location function on the power line. Several methods for locating series arc faults have been proposed in this work. For the first method, a model based on the impedance parameters of the experimental power line (length 49 meters) based on Kirchhoff's laws was developed. The second method uses line modeling to obtain different signature vectors used to train a neural network. The third wavelet transform method is based on the identification of high frequency waves that occur in the presence of a series arc fault. The other major contribution of this thesis is the development of an efficient algorithm for detecting the presence of an electrical arc fault by the line current analysis. The algorithm is designed to reliably detect series arcing faults in stationary and transient operating modes of household appliances and then in complex load masking and with disturbance device configurations. The algorithm is based on the analysis of the line current by a Kalman filter associated with a decision logic block. The technique used based on adaptive fuzzy logic thresholding logic, allows significant reduction in false triggering

Silicone rubber insulators have been replacing conventional insulators made from toughened glass and porcelain in the power system, due to the non-wetting properties of silicone rubber insulation housing. However, silicone elastomers will eventually wet-out leading to leakage current and dry-band arcing giving rise to erosion of the silicone housing material, and eventually insulation failure. Well-established formulations of insulation housing composites have been developed and validated for erosion performance using the standard inclined plane tracking and erosion test, yet no such formulations have been developed and validated for DC. With the assumption that equivalent performance will be obtained, an adjustment to the creepage distance has been the measure taken in using the AC insulators for DC, without taking into consideration the differing aspects of the DC as compared to the AC dry-band arcing. This practice questions the existing DC insulators as an unknown entity that requires further investigation to ensure the reliability of the power supply. In addition recent demands have been raised to develop housing composites specifically for DC outdoor insulation, particularly with the increased interest in DC. It follows that developing a standard DC inclined plane tracking and erosion test is necessary for the development of more suitable materials for outdoor DC insulation applications. This thesis provides a thorough study of the DC dry-band arcing mechanism as opposed to the well understood mechanism of the AC dry-band arcing and provides a mechanistic understanding to the dry-band arcing leading to erosion as a foundation for the development of a standard DC inclined plane tracking and erosion test. To this end, the influence of inorganic fillers in silicone rubber on resisting erosion due to dry-band arcing is also presented, as an essential step towards obtaining more suitable silicone composite for DC outdoor insulation applications.

Polymer insulators are used in the power transmission and distribution industry as a good substitute to the porcelain and glass insulators. These polymer insulators have many advantages compared to porcelain insulators respectively. Significant improvement has been made in the performance of polymer insulators with continuous evaluation involving its performance and reliability under contaminated conditions for transmission and distribution purposes. This thesis investigates about the performance of polymer insulation under accelerated tracking and erosion test conditions conducted on distribution class polymer equipment’s like composite insulators and polymeric cutouts having a rated voltage of 15 kV. Further electrical tests, additional tests are done for investigating the dielectric strength of composite insulators and polymeric cutouts for studying its degradation process at macroscopic level.

The scope of this thesis was to develop a prototype high-impedance arc detection system that a utility worker could use as an early warning system while working in a manhole environment. As part of this system sensors and algorithms were developed to increase the sensitivity of detecting an arc while ignoring loads that can give false positive signatures for arcing. The latest technology was used to repeat measurements performed in previous research from decades ago that lacked in sampling speed and amplitude resolution. Several types of arcs were produced and analyzed so to establish a library of various waveform and frequency signatures. The system was constructed as a development unit and is currently gathering information in the field. Data being collected will be analyzed so future revisions will give higher confidence levels of arc detection. Other future plans involve designing a more compact and portable unit.

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The determination of the pre-arcing time of a fuse given a specific current is crucial during the selection process if the fuse is to be effective for the given application. Often the data supplied by the manufacturer is enough to determine this time, however this is not always the case. For this purpose a fuse model of a diazed fuse has been developed in order to simulate the pre-arcing times in the range of 2 ms to 2 s. The model is implemented in MATLAB and simulates the pre-arcing time for a given current together with fuse parameters such as the materials and the geometry of the fuse. The model has been tested experimentally by running specific currents designed to represent a wide variety of currents which a fuse might be subjected to. The tests were done on 10A gG fuses for which the current through the fuse was logged and then used as input to the fuse model, the simulated time and the measured time was then compared. The simulated times are in general faster than the measured pre-arcing times, this is mainly due to the rate of change of thermal conductivity of the sand with respect to temperature being approximated in conjunction with thermal radiation not being taken into consideration. More testing needs to be done to validate the model for different current ratings and fuse-element designs. / Att bestämma smälttiden för en säkring som utsätts för en given ström är viktigt för att kunna avgöra om dess prestanda är tillräcklig för en viss applikation. I de flesta fall är det möjligt att använda tillverkarens data tillsammans med vågformen för att bestämma smälttiden, men det kan även inträffa att detta inte är möjligt. För dessa fall har en modell av en diazed säkring utvecklas för att simulera smälttiden inom 2 ms till 2 s. Modellen har implementerats i MATLAB och beräknar smälltiden för en given ström och parametrar för säkringen. Modellen har testats experimentellt genom att säkringar har utsatts för en mängd olika strömmar som representerar de olika strömmar som säkringen kan utsättas för. Testerna gjordes på 10 A gG säkringar där strömmen genom säkringen loggades för att sedan användas som ingångsvärde till modellen, tiderna för den uppmätta smälttiden och den beräknades smälltiden jämfördes sedan. De simulerade smälttiderna är lägre jämfört med de uppmätta, detta beror dels på att förändringen av värmeledningsförmågan med temperaturökning hos sanden är okänd och är uppskattad från referenser och dels på att värmestrålning inte har ingått i modellen. Mer tester behöver utföras för att validera modellen mot fler strömstyrkor och designer. / Kandidatexjobb i elektroteknik 2020, KTH, Stockholm

Les défauts d’arcs électriques sont souvent la cause du déclenchement d’un incendie dans l’habitat. Les détecter constitue une amélioration de la sécurité électrique domestique. La contribution de cette thèse porte sur la problématique de l’identification et de la détection de défauts d’arcs électriques sur le réseau basse tension domestique (charge simple et combinée). Dans ce travail de thèse, le premier axe de recherche porte sur la mise en œuvre d’un modèle de simulation de réseau. Sur le modèle de réseau l’objectif est d’introduire à volonté et de manière graphique des charges de nature différentes associées à un défaut d’arc électrique série. La modélisation porte sur la source de tension, des charges domestiques, le défaut d’arc et le bloc d’analyse numérique du courant et de la tension pour la commande d’un disjoncteur. Le second axe de recherche porte la mise au point de méthodes de détection robuste d’un défaut d’arc électrique Quatre méthodes originales de détection portant sur la tension et le courant de ligne ont été développées dans le cadre de ce travail de thèse. Elles sont toutes basées sur l’analyse des caractéristiques fréquentielles et temporelles du courant de ligne. Toutes les méthodes produisent une information dont l’amplitude tend à s’accroître en présence d’un arc électrique. Toutefois, le caractère non déterministe et très variable des signaux produits par un arc électrique ainsi que la grande variabilité des charges et des perturbations qu’elles introduisent rendent la détection très difficile. L’ensemble des études s’est donc systématiquement composé d’une comparaison entre la situation avec et sans arcs. Le résultat a abouti à une approche combinée de plusieurs méthodes et d’un modèle simple de décision basé sur un simple seuil. Un prototype implémentant une partie de l’algorithme a montré la faisabilité d’un circuit en temps réel / The electrical arc faults are the cause of electrical home fire. Detecting them is an improvement of domestic electrical safety. The thesis contribution focuses on the problem of the electrical arc fault identification and detection in the domestic low voltage network. In this thesis, the first research objective is the modeling of a domestic electrical network. The aim of the modeling is to recreate graphically the loads and the topology of the real domestic electrical network associated with a series electrical arc fault. The modeling is made on the AC voltage source, domestic loads, arc fault model and a block of current and voltage analysis to control a circuit breaker. The second research objective is the development of a robust method for detecting arcing fault. Four detecting methods were developed as part of this thesis; they are based on the current analysis of frequency and time characteristics. All methods generate information whose amplitude tends to increase in the presence of an electric arc. However, the non-deterministic and random feature of the signals produced by the electrical arc fault as well as the large number and variability of loads and the disturbances which they introduce make the arc detection very difficult. All the studies consistently are composed of a comparison between the normal operation and arc fault signals. The result has resulted in a combined approach of some methodologies and a simple decision model based on a threshold. A prototype which contains a part of the algorithm was shown the feasibility of a circuit in real time

Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-04-17T13:51:49Z No. of bitstreams: 1 HENRIQUE NUNES DE SANTANA – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGEE) 2017.pdf: 2930914 bytes, checksum: a4c0e297d62f2854c085762512fb6f16 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-17T13:51:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 HENRIQUE NUNES DE SANTANA – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGEE) 2017.pdf: 2930914 bytes, checksum: a4c0e297d62f2854c085762512fb6f16 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-18 / Capes / Neste trabalho, é avaliada aplicabilidade de sensores de acoplamento capacitivo na detecção dos sinais emitidos por arcos elétricos em contatos de disjuntores. Adicionalmente, é investigada a possibilidade de correlacionar estes sinais com nível de degradação dos contatos de arco. A aplicabilidade dos sensores é avaliada por meio da comparação dos sinais detectados pelos mesmos, com os sinais detectados por uma antena direcional em banda larga, tanto no domínio do tempo quanto no domínio da frequência. Para a análise da correlação entre o nível de degradação dos contatos de arco e os sinais detectados, atributos de estatística descritiva da duração e da energia dos sinais foram avaliados. A análise dos resultados evidenciou que os sensores de acoplamento capacitivo são capazes de detectar os sinais emitidos pelos arcos elétricos. Também foi evidenciado que a sensibilidade de detecção dos sensores depende da posição na qual foram instalados ao longo do polo analisado. No caso dos disjuntores utilizados neste trabalho, a melhor posição para a instalação dos sensores foi a posição mais próxima do terminal inferior do polo. A flexibilidade e o valor da constante dielétrica devem ser avaliados no momento da escolha do material empregado na confecção dos sensores, uma vez que sensores pouco flexíveis podem sofrer danos ao serem instalados no polo do disjuntor e, constantes dielétricas elevadas podem prejudicar os ganhos dos respectivos sensores. A correlação entre os sinais dos arcos elétricos detectados pelos sensores e o nível de degradação dos contatos de arco é possível, quando os atributos estatísticos da média, desvio padrão, curtose e mediana obtidos da energia dos referidos sinais são avaliados. / In this work, is evaluated the applicability of capacitive coupling sensors in the detection of signals emitted by electric arcs in circuit breaker contacts. In addition, the possibility of correlating these signals with the arcing contacts degradation level is investigated. The sensors applicability is investigated by comparing the signals detected by them with the signals detected by a broadband directional antenna in both time and frequency domain. For the analysis of the correlation between the arcing contacts degradation level and the detected signals, descriptive statistical attributes of the duration and energy of the signals were evaluated. The analysis of the results showed that the capacitive coupling sensors are able to detect the signals emitted by the electric arcs. It was also evidenced that the sensor detection sensitivity depends on the position in which they are installed along the analyzed pole. In the case of the circuit breakers used in this work, the best position for the installation of the sensors was the one closest to the lower terminal of the pole. The flexibility and value of the dielectric constant must be evaluated when choosing the material used in the construction of the sensors, since weak sensors can be damaged when installed at the pole of the circuit breaker, and high dielectric constants can affect the gains of the respective sensors. The correlation between the electric arcs signals detected by the sensors and the arcing contacts degradation level is possible, when the statistical attributes of the mean, standard deviation, kurtosis and median obtained from the energy of these signals are evaluated.