Aviation biofuel is technically viable and nearing the commercial stage. In the last 5 years aviation biofuel has moved from relative obscurity to become fully certified for commercial use in up to 50% blends with standard jet fuel. There have since been 15 successful commercial flight tests using aviation biofuels including Lufthansa s six month trial operating on a passenger revenue generating route in 2011. Airlines and biofuel companies such as British Airways and Solena are furthermore beginning to form partnerships to finance specialised aviation biofuel production facilities. However, aviation biofuels have yet to become widely commercialised. In fact, there are a series of issues preventing the emergence, development and uptake of aviation biofuels. The main issues are perceived as high costs of manufacture, limited availability of feedstocks, controversy surrounding the effect on food prices and the emissions output from land use change. Furthermore, there is a significant lack of academic peer reviewed literature which investigates these issues or offers solutions to support the development of the technology. This thesis aims to investigate the factors that affect the emergence, development and uptake of aviation biofuels by drawing upon in-depth stakeholder interviews and survey data. Strategic niche management (SNM) theory is used and extended to analyse the contemporary issues and develop recommendations to support the continued emergence, development and uptake of aviation biofuels. It is concluded that the emergence, development and uptake is being driven mainly by rising jet fuel prices, growing concern regarding aviation emissions legislation and fuel (in)security. Airlines, biofuel producers and specialised supply chain companies are driving emergence, development and uptake due to commercial opportunities. Despite these drivers, the emergence, development and uptake is being constrained by a combination of ineffective policy provision, high costs of production, limited feedstocks and uncertainty surrounding sustainability. Ineffective and unsuitable policy is exacerbating the issues of high production costs, limited feedstocks and sustainability. In particular, competition between aviation and road biofuels is limiting aviation biofuel expansion. Recommendations are to develop nurtured niche markets for aviation biofuels using principles from SNM. Within these markets, aviation biofuels are afforded commercial viability in order to learn about supply chain development, longer term infrastructural requirements and technological development. Information should be shared between the niche markets in order to maximise learning by doing and speed up efficiency gains. Once niche markets are established, the incentives and protection should be gradually reduced to allow a competitive aviation biofuel industry to develop.

Aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have risen faster than any other transport sector to double between 1990 and 2005. Such emissions from aviation could increase another 700 percent globally, and at least 150 percent in the European Union (EU), by 2050 due to continuously increasing consumer demand. To reverse the trend of rising emissions writ large, the EU has set 2030 climate goals of reducing its GHG emissions by 40 percent (relative to 2005) and having 32 percent of gross final energy consumption from renewables. The EU’s recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED-II) calls for 14 percent of transport energy from renewables, gives multipliers to advanced biofuels, and restricts biomass that is from ecologically valuable lands or that causes land use change. Energy security and energy independence are also long-term EU goals. Many of these goals and targets have also been adopted by the European Free Trade Area (EFTA). Despite these efforts, options are limited to reduce aviation emissions compared to other transport sectors, leaving aviation biofuels, also known as renewable jet fuels (RJFs), as currently the only commercialized option. Against this backdrop, in this thesis scenario analyses were conducted to produce biomass from EU+EFTA lands, project RJF yields from this biomass, and estimate emissions savings of these RJFs compared to petroleum jet fuel. Particular effort was devoted to identifying biomass, biofuels, and EU+EFTA lands that comply with RED-II criteria. The two RJF pathways selected were hydroprocessed esters and fatty acid (HEFA) conversion of Camelina sativa vegetable oil and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis of forestry residue lignocellulosic biomass. Over 117 million hectares in the EU+EFTA was identified as available for Camelina sativa cultivation, which could yield over 64 Mt of RJF each year, or 113 percent of the total jet fuel consumed in the EU+EFTA in 2017. Conversely, if 50 percent of the forestry residues generated as by-products from EU+EFTA roundwood harvesting operations in 2017 were extracted from harvest sites, 40 Mt of forestry residues would be available as biomass, which would yield almost 7.6 Mt of RJF annually (13% of 2017 jet fuel consumption). If all 144 million hectares of EU+EFTA forest lands deemed available for wood supply were logged, 1,772 Mt of forestry residues would be produced in total (at 50 percent extraction), which could result in almost 337 Mt of RJF, or 590% of the jet fuel consumed in the region in 2017. Hence, RJF can be feasibly produced from biomass from EU+EFTA lands, in amounts that meet or exceed the annual jet fuel consumption of the EU+EFTA, and in ways that meet or exceed RED-II sustainability criteria. However, the proportion of these RJF yields to total annual EU+EFTA jet fuel consumption will decrease over time as the number of flights and their resulting emissions increase. The two RJFs also emit 67 percent and 91 percent fewer GHG emissions, respectively, than petroleum-based jet fuel, showing them to be important tools for the EU to meet its 2030 renewables and emissions reductions targets. Producing the biomass feedstocks and RJFs in these quantities will require the EU to make serious decisions on land use trade-offs, such as whether livestock production is more important than biofuel production.