Differences in price levels as well as inflation rates among countries have been subject of discussion for a long time. More than the actual levels, however, the question of determinants of price levels in time and a possible convergence is key for the new member states with respect to the Maastricht criteria. The dynamics of price levels is crucial, and many suggestions have been put forward to explain the observed trends and changes. This thesis focuses on the determinants of relative price level, and hence real exchange rate, developments in the new member states of the EU and employs a regression analysis to examine their change in time. As most of the countries in focus are transition economies, structural variables are also included among the independent variables. We find that the Balassa- Samuelson effect is key to explaining real exchange rate developments as the effect of productivity differential has been significant over the whole period examined. However, in the recent years, marked by the onset of the crisis, other factors, such as the structure of trade and Euro area membership, have become more prominent.

The aim of the submitted thesis is macroeconomic analysis, comparison and evaluation of nominal and real convergence of the Visegrad Group states with EU-15 states. By the help of regression model, one can state that in years 2004--2008 countries of V4 reached Beta - convergence with EU-15. However, this did not hold for the critical period in 2008--2012 when mainly Hungary lagged behind. There was proved a positive relationship between real and nominal convergence wherewith Balassa-Samuelson Effect for EU states was confirmed. The Czech Republic has always shown a lower nominal value than it would correspond to its GDP per capita, still it approximated to regression line over time. Other V4 states registered inverse course. During period 2004--2012, the Czech Republic performed Maastricht conver-gence criteria best from V4 states. Contrariwise, Hungary had the worst position of the ob-served period.

This Thesis deals with the convergence of European states and identifies the influence of the European union enlargement in 2014 on the course of convergence. Both real and price convergences are analyzed by using beta convergence and sigma convergence concepts. The Balassa Samuelson effect is tested as well. The Balassa Samuelson effect explains the existence of price convergence and also indicates the relationship between real and price variables. The existence of real and price convergence was verified for the whole period from 1995 to 2013. During 2004 the integration of European states was strengthened, which was significant for real convergence because the speed of convergence was positively influenced. As for the price convergence, the year 2004 was insignificant as the break point. Despite a similar course of both convergences, price convergence was more affected by the crisis in 2008. The presence of Balassa Samuelson effect was confirmed. Despite the complications during intensity measurement, caused by problematic dividing into tradable and non tradable sectors, corresponding values are realistic.

Česká republika se společně s dalšími devíti evropskými státy automaticky účastní třetí fáze hospodářské a měnové unie, což znamená, že souhlasí s přijetím jednotné evropské měny. Mezi názory, proč nepospíchat s přijetím eura, patří otázky reálné a nominální konvergence. V této diplomové práci sleduji vztah mezi reálnou a nominální konvergencí pomocí Balassa-Samuelsonového efektu. Cílem práce je odpovědět na otázku, zda po přijetí jednotné evropské měny ?hrozí? v České republice vyšší míra inflace. V teoretické části se věnuji problematice Balassa-Samuelsonového efektu a jeho vlivu na plnění maastrichtského kritéria cenové stability. Jedna z kapitol je věnována příkladu konvergence Portugalska, které již jednotnou evropskou měnu v hotovostní podobě přijalo v roce 2002 a je jak rozlohou, počtem obyvatel tak i ekonomickými charakteristikami podobné České republice. V empirické části se pokusím pomocí analýzy časových řad odhadnout budoucí hodnoty CPI u jednotlivých skupin spotřebního koše podle dosavadního vývoje CPI.

The main purpose of this thesis is to explore whether the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis can effectively explain the long-term change of the real exchange. The recent panel unit root, panel cointegration tests and fully modified OLS are applied to examine the four tested equations that are based on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. 1. Relative differential productivity between traded and non-traded sectors influences price differential in two sectors. 2. We extend the relative productivity in non-traded and traded sectors causing change in non-traded relative price into the two-country model. 3. The appreciation (depreciation) of the real exchange results from the different relative price of the two-country model. 4. The appreciation (depreciation) of the real exchange is caused by the different relative productivity of the two-country model. The data span is from 1971 to 1995, and includes 12 OECD countries. There are three main different points from the existing literatures. 1. We apply some newly developed panel unit root tests to estimate the equations based on Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. 2. The previous documents only estimated the model of one variable, but the estimation of two variables was rare. In the equation 14 and 15, we examined the two variables in both. 3. In the calculation of the price, owing to the difficulties of collecting data from various sectors, we use a special way to measure the price. Finally, we can observe from the results of the empirical study: when productivity of the domestic sectors differentiates, that is, 1% increase in relative productivity between traded and non-trade sectors causes 0.53% increase in domestic relative prices. When it is taken into the two-country model, the increase of productivity will cause the appreciation of the real exchange rate. This can explain why in the developed countries like the U.S. and Japan, the faster increase in domestic relative productivity causes the appreciation of real exchange rates in the long run.

The main purpose of this thesis is to explore whether the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis can effectively explain the long-term change of the real exchange. The recent panel unit root, panel cointegration tests and fully modified OLS are applied to examine the four tested equations that are based on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. The data span is from 1985 to 2002, and includes 7 east asian countries. 1. Relative differential productivity between traded and non-traded sectors influences price differential in two sectors. 2. We extend the relative productivity in non-traded and traded sectors causing change in non-traded relative price into the two-country model. 3. The appreciation (depreciation) of the real exchange results from the different relative price of the two-country model. 4. The appreciation (depreciation) of the real exchange is caused by the different relative productivity of the two-country model. Finally, we can observe from the results of the empirical study: when productivity of the domestic sectors differentiates, that is, 1% increase in relative productivity between traded and non-trade sectors causes 0.28% increase in domestic relative prices. When it is taken into the two-country model, the increase of productivity will cause the appreciation of the real exchange rate.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:58:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 2006DaniloSampaio06062008.pdf.jpg: 17491 bytes, checksum: 2ca1bbc3acee26ede53fe9284bbf8149 (MD5) 2006DaniloSampaio06062008.pdf.txt: 107797 bytes, checksum: bf615d8b129795c3a8ab3e64bdb00d63 (MD5) 2006DaniloSampaio06062008.pdf: 581957 bytes, checksum: 356de32309d0c0ac648bacd362ddcbc6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-06-06T00:00:00Z / Most empirical approaches only use productivity differentials to estimate the Balassa-Samuelson effect. Despite of that, the Balassa-Samuelson model assumes some important hypotheses that are generally ignored. Initially, this work intends to estimate the Balassa-Samuelson effect relaxing the hypothesis that the productive sectors (tradables and non-tradables) have the same relative size in all the countries. Following Rodrik (2007), a real exchange rate disequilibrium index is computed using the results of the Balassa-Samuelson effect estimation. After that, I estimate the effect of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth and verify if Rodrik´s conclusions still hold. / A maioria dos trabalhos empíricos atuais utiliza somente os diferenciais de produtividade para estimar o efeito Balassa-Samuelson. Porém, o modelo em que se baseia esta abordagem assume algumas hipóteses importantes que podem ser relaxadas. A primeira parte deste trabalho busca estimar o efeito Balassa-Samuelson relaxando a hipótese de que o setor produtor de bens não-comercializáveis tem o mesmo tamanho em todos os países do mundo. Posteriormente, utilizando uma abordagem proposta por Rodrik (2007), os resultados obtidos na estimação do efeito Balassa-Samuelson são utilizados para calcular um índice de desequilíbrio do câmbio real. Por fim, o efeito de desequilíbrios cambiais sobre o crescimento econômico é estimado, verificando se os resultados encontrados por Rodrik (2007) se mantêm.

O mercado da carne bovina na China sofreu grandes transformações nos últimos anos, quando o país passou a ser um dos maiores importadores mundiais, apresentando assim oportunidades para os países exportadores. A competitividade de Austrália, Brasil e Estados Unidos, os três principais players que participaram deste mercado nos últimos 20 anos, foi avaliada utilizando o índice de Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas (IVCR). Consideraram-se as importações de carne bovina in natura realizadas via China continental, via Hong Kong e no total de ambos. Os resultados mostraram que o Brasil foi o país mais competitivo ao longo da série, mas seus resultados devem-se às exportações de carne congelada realizadas via Hong Kong. A Austrália é competitiva em ambos mercados, em especial na China continental, se mostrando também o mais competitivo fornecedor de carne resfriada, enquanto que os Estados Unidos tiveram sua competitividade comprometida pela ocorrência do surto de EEB em 2003. Os resultados mostram que a ocorrência de adversidades sanitárias foi o evento mais importante da série, sendo capaz de causar alterações duradouras na competitividade de todos os players. / Beef market in China has undergone major changes in recent years as the country has become one of the largest importers in the world, thus offering opportunities for exporting countries. The competitiveness of Australia, Brazil and the United States, the three main players that participated in this market during the last 20 years, was evaluated using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index. For this analysis were considered imports of fresh beef imported by mainland China, Hong Kong and the Total of both. The results showed that Brazil was the most competitive country during the series, but its performance is linked to exports of frozen beef made through Hong Kong. Australia is competitive in both markets, especially in mainland China, and is also the most competitive supplier of chilled beef. The United States had its competitiveness in both markets jeopardized by the occurrence of a BSE outbreak in 2003. The results show that the occurrence of sanitary adversities was the most important event of the series, being able to cause long-lasting changes in the competitiveness of all players.

O mercado da carne bovina na China sofreu grandes transformações nos últimos anos, quando o país passou a ser um dos maiores importadores mundiais, apresentando assim oportunidades para os países exportadores. A competitividade de Austrália, Brasil e Estados Unidos, os três principais players que participaram deste mercado nos últimos 20 anos, foi avaliada utilizando o índice de Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas (IVCR). Consideraram-se as importações de carne bovina in natura realizadas via China continental, via Hong Kong e no total de ambos. Os resultados mostraram que o Brasil foi o país mais competitivo ao longo da série, mas seus resultados devem-se às exportações de carne congelada realizadas via Hong Kong. A Austrália é competitiva em ambos mercados, em especial na China continental, se mostrando também o mais competitivo fornecedor de carne resfriada, enquanto que os Estados Unidos tiveram sua competitividade comprometida pela ocorrência do surto de EEB em 2003. Os resultados mostram que a ocorrência de adversidades sanitárias foi o evento mais importante da série, sendo capaz de causar alterações duradouras na competitividade de todos os players. / Beef market in China has undergone major changes in recent years as the country has become one of the largest importers in the world, thus offering opportunities for exporting countries. The competitiveness of Australia, Brazil and the United States, the three main players that participated in this market during the last 20 years, was evaluated using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index. For this analysis were considered imports of fresh beef imported by mainland China, Hong Kong and the Total of both. The results showed that Brazil was the most competitive country during the series, but its performance is linked to exports of frozen beef made through Hong Kong. Australia is competitive in both markets, especially in mainland China, and is also the most competitive supplier of chilled beef. The United States had its competitiveness in both markets jeopardized by the occurrence of a BSE outbreak in 2003. The results show that the occurrence of sanitary adversities was the most important event of the series, being able to cause long-lasting changes in the competitiveness of all players.

Tématem diplomové práce je zhodnocení vývoje reálné a nominální konvergence ČR k EU a zkoumání připravenosti České republiky na přijetí eura. Práce se zabývá teoretickými koncepty konvergence, jako je zákon jedné ceny, teorie parity kupní síly či Balassa - Samuelsonův model. Shrnuje, která kritéria se k hodnocení procesu konvergence používají, a blíže analyzuje, jak Česká republika plní maastrichtská konvergenční kritéria. V závěru práce jsou shrnuty aktuální problémy hospodářské politiky ČR, které jsou překážkou přijetí společné měny eura. Práce se mimo jiné zabývá otázkou, v jakém časovém horizontu je možné přijetí eura očekávat.