The increasing awareness of, and concern over, possible terrorist attacks using biological threats has increased attention and efforts for safeguarding U.S. agriculture. Whether intentional or unintentional, a biological event likely would cause substantial consequences well beyond the U.S. agricultural sector with considerable economic, social, and political costs. One significant impact would involve trade disruptions. This dissertation investigates biosecurity risk impacts with a focus on animal disease outbreaks using data from recent U.S. and Canada bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases. An empirical study was carried out on the impact of the North American BSE cases. Using a time series approach, this study detected a significant structural break during the second half of 2003 when two BSE cases were confirmed in North America. Results showed that U.S. beef prices responded to the disruptions in cattle and beef trade caused by the BSE cases. The ban on beef and cattle imports from Canada and the ban on U.S. beef exports were major contributors to the fluctuation in beef prices. This showed that trade disruptions following the BSE discoveries in North America resulted in a supply shift and affected the movement of beef prices afterwards. The study did not find strong evidence that the 2003 North American BSE cases and associated trade disruptions greatly affected per capita beef consumption. In turn, a simulation study was conducted to examine the impact of major BSE outbreaks, associated trade disruptions, and demand shifts on U.S. welfare and the livestock industry. Six alternative scenarios were simulated and compared with the base scenario where there was no trade disruption and demand shift. The six scenarios consisted of various combinations of cattle and beef trade restrictions, livestock production adjustment, and beef demand shift. When beef and cattle trade, and market demand are greatly reduced in the wake of the BSE events in both Canada and the U.S., the impact on the U.S. welfare, meat trade, and regional livestock production would be the greatest. Beef price and production could reduce by 26% and 16% respectively. Regional impact on beef and livestock production would also be substantial in this case.

Due to the complexity and dynamism of the global beef market, policymakers need a theoretically consistent, rigorous and quantitative analysis to validate and quantify the effects of different factors that are believed to drive beef trade. The general objective of this dissertation was to validate and quantify the factors that drive and influence international beef trade in order to facilitate and improve the decision-making behaviour of policymakers. The gravity model methodology was identified as the ideal framework to address the general objective of this dissertation, and was used as the primary tool to analyse the factors that drive and influence beef trade. The specific objectives were to gain an understanding of prominent issues that influence international beef trade, to review the gravity modelling methodology and to model the effects of various issues on the volume of beef trade based on trade data among leading importers and exporters between 1996 and 2010. A model was estimated using two separate equations, referred to as Model B1 and Model B2. For each of these equations the dependant variable varied to represent: bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled (HS 020130); bovine cuts boneless, frozen (HS 020230); and an aggregation of these two products designated as "Total beef". Model B1 was estimated with the full gravity model specification, including export prices. Since very few studies on commodity specific gravity models exist and have never modelled beef exports prices directly, it was decided to run an additional model, Model B2, without the export price variable. The Wald Chi-square test confirmed that the variables included in the model were significant in explaining the variation in the volume of exports. Issues that were included in the specification included beef production in a beef exporter, beef consumption in a beef importer, tariff measures applied by importing countries, income per capita of consumers in importing countries, export prices and trade bans due to animal diseases. The coefficients of individual variables estimated were found to be plausible while the signs of the coefficients indicated the expected relationships between the volume of beef trade and each of the individual issues. After comparing the two models it was found that the price variable exhibited statistically significant and plausible results, and did not affect the estimates of the other variables. A comparison with similar studies revealed that the model developed in this dissertation estimated similar results in some areas, and even more plausible results in others. When all of the statistical tests and validation criteria are taken into account, the gravity model developed in this dissertation was successful in validating and quantifying the factors that drive and influence international beef trade. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / gm2014 / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A survey to assess the sustainability and marketing opportunities for smallholder cattle production systems was conducted by consulting with a total of 95 smallholder cattle producers in Ncorha and Gxwalibomvu communities in the Eastern Cape Province (ECP) of South Africa. In addition, a total of 18 surrounding beef retailers, 5 abattoirs that supplied beef to these retailers and 155 beef consumers who bought beef from these retailers between February 2013 and February 2014 were also interviewed using pretested structured questionnaires. The surveys established the perception of beef traders and consumers on the development of a Natural beef (NB) brand and indicated the willingness of participants to support the development of a NB brand. The results indicated that a smallholder beef cattle production system was socially and environmentally conditionally sustainable but economically not sustainable. Overall, the system was conditionally sustainable. Cattle herd size was bigger in Ncorha than in Gxwalibomvu (13.7±1.9 vs. 11.3 ± 1.9 heads of cattle, respectively). Smallholder producers from both sites sold an average of two cattle per year. Young farmers (<40 years old), Christians and small households (<5 members) had a greater potential to sell cattle than adults (>40 years old), traditionalists and larger households (>5 members). Similarly, households with access to extension services, owners of smaller cattle herds (<10 cattle) and from a lower income bracket (<R3000) had a bigger potential to sell cattle. More than 70% of consumers were willing to buy a NB brand once it is available on the market but were not willing to pay a premium for the beef brand. Consumers’ willingness to buy and pay a premium for a NB product was influenced by gender, age, income source, with meat preference and meat consumption frequency playing the biggest role in decision making. On the other hand, retailers were not willing to participate in the development of a NB brand. Beef traders, however, suggested that communal feedlotting, group marketing and characterization of beef from cattle fed natural pasture-based diets to identify unique quality attributes of such beef, can potentially improve offtake and economic sustainability of smallholder cattle production systems. The study concluded that smallholder cattle production systems in the ECP is conditionally sustainable, and opportunities for the integration of smallholder cattle producers into the formal beef market value chain lies in the characterization of natural pasture-fed beef, feedlotting and group marketing. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING:'n Opname om die volhoubaarheid en bemarkingsgeleenthede vir kleinboer vleisbeesproduksiestelsels te evalueer, is deur middel van konsultasie met 'n totaal van 95 kleinboere vee produsente in Ncorha en Gxwalibomvu gemeenskappe in die Oos-Kaap Provinsie van Suid-Afrika, uitgevoer. Daarbenewens is altesame 18 omliggende vleis kleinhandelaars, 5 abattoirs wat beesvleis verskaf aan hierdie kleinhandelaars en 155 beesvleis verbruikers wat vleis gekoop het van die kleinhandelaars tussen Februarie 2013 en Februarie 2014, met behulp van vooraf-getoetste gestruktureerde vraelyste ondervra. Die opnames het die mening van beesvleis handelaars en -verbruikers oor die ontwikkeling van 'n natuurlike weiding-geproduseerde beesvleis (NPB) handelsmerk ingewin en ook die bereidwilligheid van die deelnemers om die ontwikkeling van 'n NPB handelsmerk te ondersteun, aangedui. Die bevindinge dui daarop dat 'n kleinskaalse vleisbees produksiestelsel sosiaal en omgewingsvriendelik voorwaardelik volhoubaar is, maar nie ekonomies volhoubaar is nie. In geheel is hierdie tipe produksiestelsel as voorwaardelik volhoubaar beskou. Beestrop grootte was groter in die Ncorha as in die Gxwalibomvu gemeenskappe (13.7 ± 1.9 beeste vs. 11.3 ± 1.9 beeste, onderskeidelik). Kleinboer produsente van beide areas het 'n gemiddeld van twee beeste per jaar verkoop. Jong boere (<40 jaar oud), Christene en klein huishoudings (<5 lede) het 'n beter potensiaal gehad om beeste te verkoop as volwassenes (> 40 jaar oud), tradisionele boere en groter huishoudings (> 5 lede). Net so het huishoudings met toegang tot voorligtingsdienste, eienaars van klein troppe (<10 beeste) en boere wat aan die laer inkomstegroep behoort het (<R3000), ʼn groter potensiaal gehad om vee te verkoop. Meer as 70% van verbruikers was bereid om vir 'n NPB produk te betaal sodra dit beskikbaar is op die mark, maar was nie bereid om 'n premie vir die NPB handelsmerk te betaal nie. Verbruikers se bereidwilligheid om NPB produkte te koop en ʼn premie te betaal vir die handelsmerk was deels beïnvloed deur geslag, ouderdom, bron van inkomste en die meeste deur vleis voorkeur en frekwensie van vleis verbruik. Kleinhandelaars was nie bereid om deel te neem aan die ontwikkeling van ʼn NPB handelsmerk nie. Bees handelaars het egter voorgestel dat kommunale voerkrale, groepsbemarking en karakterisering van vleis van beeste gevoer op natuurlike weiding om die unieke kwaliteitseienskappe van die tipe vleis vas te stel, potensieel afsette en ekonomiese volhoubaarheid van kleinboere produksie beeste stelsels kan verbeter. Die studie het bevind dat kleinboer veeproduksiestelsels in die Oos-Kaap Provinsie voorwaardelik volhoubaar is en dat geleenthede vir die integrasie van kleinboer beesprodusente in die formele vleisbeesmark waardeketting in die karakterisering van beesvleis geproduseer op natuurlike weiding, voerkrale en groepsbemarking, vervat is.

This dissertation includes three essays on U.S. beef market. Each essay has looked at this market from a different point of view. The first essay investigates the price adjustment along the different levels of this market. The second essay discusses the impact of food safety incidents on export levels in this market. The third essay considers the environmental loading of U.S. beef market. A summary of each article is as follows. The first essay (chapter 2) analyzes price adjustment of the U.S. beef sector with a focus on the Great Recession. To this purpose, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and historical decomposition graphs are applied to monthly data. The results indicate that retail prices have lower speeds of adjustment than wholesale prices. Also, the magnitude of price adjustment in the presence of the Great Recession, as an exogenous shock, is different for each level of the U.S. beef market. It is concluded that, with respect to both the speed and magnitude of the price adjustment, the U.S. beef sector has an asymmetric price adjustment, pointing to the inefficiency of the U.S. beef supply chain. These results have welfare implications for U.S. beef consumers and producers. The primary objective of the second essay (chapter 3) is to quantify the impact of consumer awareness about beef safety on U.S. beef exports. To do that, an index is used to reflect consumer’s awareness about beef safety based on the publicized reports in the media. Quarterly panel data is applied to the top importing countries, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Canada for the period 2000-2016. Applying the gravity model, results show that a 0.8% reduction in U.S. beef exports arose from the foodborne-disease news. In addition, using impulse response functions derived from panel vector autoregressive (Panel VAR) estimation, results show that the negative impact of a shock in food safety news intensified after three quarters, and then diminished slowly over time. In order to regain consumers’ confidence and to compensate for the economic loss arising from a foodborne outbreak, bilateral cooperation among trade partners seems necessary. Investing in any scheme that minimizes the impact of food safety events, such as disease eradication programs, traceability systems, quality labeling, and third-party certification that conveys the safety message to consumers is suggested. The third essay (chapter 4) has two purposes. First, it quantifies the environmental loading of U.S. beef sector by calculating emission levels over the period 1970-2014. Beef cattle is one of the most emission-intensive sectors, which is responsible for 35% to 54% of total GHGs from livestock. Following International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline, this study identifies three sources of emissions, including enteric fermentation, manure management, and manure left on pastures. Second, it provides an understanding of consumption-environmental connection related to the beef industry using time series techniques. Finally, it is suggested that providing information to the public regarding livestock and climate change relationship would be beneficial. This knowledge might help to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate change in the future.

Este trabalho procura estabelecer a relação entre as informações científicas e da mídia, relativas a um presumido risco associado ao consumo de um produto agroalimentar, e o comportamento do mercado. O caso estudado se refere à ocorrência da encefalopatia espongiforme bovina (BSE) no Reino Unido, no final da década de 1980. O entendimento do processamento da informação científica pela mídia, e o seu efeito no comportamento de um mercado conhecido, pode auxiliar no estabelecimento de um modelo integrado de geração do conhecimento científico, sua difusão pela mídia e impactos no mercado, que refletem a percepção pública de risco alimentar derivada da informação. Este modelo pode auxiliar na análise prospectiva de mercados, frente à geração de novos conhecimentos, relativos a riscos no âmbito da segurança alimentar. O modelo também poderá expressar os efeitos do comportamento do mercado alimentar sobre a pauta futura da pesquisa científica sobre risco alimentar. As percepções de risco são disseminadas na população, em regra, pelas informações que chegam até a mesma, principalmente pela mídia escrita e digital. Analisando as publicações científicas e a difusão de notícias nos informativos da mídia, se buscou determinar se as variáveis de mercado da carne bovina são afetadas pelo número de informações publicadas sobre determinado tema, e se estas variáveis podem ser antecipadas pela produção científica e da mídia sobre risco alimentar. O trabalho consistiu em levantamentos bibliométricos nas bases de dados e fontes de informação on-line, correlacionando-se o número de informações publicadas com o comportamento do mercado da carne, antes, durante e após a crise da BSE. Esta análise permitiu caracterizar os fluxos e a dinâmica da informação, identificando os intervalos de tempo e a intensidade, com os quais a percepção de risco foi repassada pela mídia para a população. No caso estudado, observou-se que a difusão de notícias pelos semanários científicos ocorreu de forma rápida, e que estas notícias se correlacionavam com as variações de mercado ligadas ao consumo de carne bovina. As revistas dirigidas à área econômica trataram do risco alimentar apenas discretamente, enquanto que os jornais diários reagiram de forma rápida e massiva. Por isso, antes dos periódicos científicos e das revistas econômicas, são os jornais diários e os semanários de divulgação científica, as fontes de informação sugeridas para avaliar a percepção de risco da sociedade. Por outro lado, a análise dos dados bibliométricos permitiu constatar que, em resposta ao comportamento da população, novas pesquisas são realizadas sobre temas correlatos, cujas publicações realimentam os jornais e semanários. Essas novas informações contribuem para reduzir o grau de incerteza na sociedade, com reflexos positivos no mercado, independente da natureza e do grau do risco mensurado científicamente. / This work aims to establishing the relationship between the scientific information and the information published by the media, regarding a potential health risk associated to food consumption, and the market of this food. The case studied refers to the events on the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) occurred in the United Kingdom at the end of the 1980s. The understanding of the processing of the scientific information by the media, and its effects on the market behavior, might help in designing a conceptual model which integrates the production of scientific knowledge, its diffusion by the media, and its impacts no the market, which expresses the public perception of a potential risk, as derived from the information. This conceptual model might be helpful in the prospective analysis of a market, towards on emergent, new scientific knowledge on food risk and food safety. The model could also express the effects of the public behavior on the scientific agenda related to food safety. Risk perception is usually disseminated in the public by the media. By analyzing the scientific publications and the news, it was searched whether the beef market was impacted by the number of scientific publications on BSE, and its human version, and whether changes in this market could be anticipated by the analysis of the progress of the scientific research, and the behavior of the media regarding that food scare. Bibliometric data was gathered from open, public, online sources, correlating the number of publications on the BSE and its agents with the behavior of the beef market, before, during, and after the food scare crisis. The analysis allowed the characterization of the dynamic of the information, and the identification of the time intervals, and the intensity with which the risk perception was disseminated by the media in the population. In the case studied, one could find that the dissemination of information by the weekly scientific magazines occurred quite rapidly, and that the published news were correlated with the changes of the beef market. The magazines directed to the economic area have dealt the food risk with no special editorial emphasis, while the daily newspapers reacted rapidly and massively. Therefore, before the scientific journals, and the economic magazines, the daily newspapers and the weekly scientific magazines are the main sources of information for evaluating the evolution of the perception of food risk in the society. Further, the analysis of the bibliometric data suggested that, as a response to the public behavior, new scientific research is carried out on subjects related to the food scare. The new publications derived from this research supply newspapers and magazines with new information, and contribute to reduce the uncertainty of the society, and affect positively the behavior of the market.

Este trabalho procura estabelecer a relação entre as informações científicas e da mídia, relativas a um presumido risco associado ao consumo de um produto agroalimentar, e o comportamento do mercado. O caso estudado se refere à ocorrência da encefalopatia espongiforme bovina (BSE) no Reino Unido, no final da década de 1980. O entendimento do processamento da informação científica pela mídia, e o seu efeito no comportamento de um mercado conhecido, pode auxiliar no estabelecimento de um modelo integrado de geração do conhecimento científico, sua difusão pela mídia e impactos no mercado, que refletem a percepção pública de risco alimentar derivada da informação. Este modelo pode auxiliar na análise prospectiva de mercados, frente à geração de novos conhecimentos, relativos a riscos no âmbito da segurança alimentar. O modelo também poderá expressar os efeitos do comportamento do mercado alimentar sobre a pauta futura da pesquisa científica sobre risco alimentar. As percepções de risco são disseminadas na população, em regra, pelas informações que chegam até a mesma, principalmente pela mídia escrita e digital. Analisando as publicações científicas e a difusão de notícias nos informativos da mídia, se buscou determinar se as variáveis de mercado da carne bovina são afetadas pelo número de informações publicadas sobre determinado tema, e se estas variáveis podem ser antecipadas pela produção científica e da mídia sobre risco alimentar. O trabalho consistiu em levantamentos bibliométricos nas bases de dados e fontes de informação on-line, correlacionando-se o número de informações publicadas com o comportamento do mercado da carne, antes, durante e após a crise da BSE. Esta análise permitiu caracterizar os fluxos e a dinâmica da informação, identificando os intervalos de tempo e a intensidade, com os quais a percepção de risco foi repassada pela mídia para a população. No caso estudado, observou-se que a difusão de notícias pelos semanários científicos ocorreu de forma rápida, e que estas notícias se correlacionavam com as variações de mercado ligadas ao consumo de carne bovina. As revistas dirigidas à área econômica trataram do risco alimentar apenas discretamente, enquanto que os jornais diários reagiram de forma rápida e massiva. Por isso, antes dos periódicos científicos e das revistas econômicas, são os jornais diários e os semanários de divulgação científica, as fontes de informação sugeridas para avaliar a percepção de risco da sociedade. Por outro lado, a análise dos dados bibliométricos permitiu constatar que, em resposta ao comportamento da população, novas pesquisas são realizadas sobre temas correlatos, cujas publicações realimentam os jornais e semanários. Essas novas informações contribuem para reduzir o grau de incerteza na sociedade, com reflexos positivos no mercado, independente da natureza e do grau do risco mensurado científicamente. / This work aims to establishing the relationship between the scientific information and the information published by the media, regarding a potential health risk associated to food consumption, and the market of this food. The case studied refers to the events on the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) occurred in the United Kingdom at the end of the 1980s. The understanding of the processing of the scientific information by the media, and its effects on the market behavior, might help in designing a conceptual model which integrates the production of scientific knowledge, its diffusion by the media, and its impacts no the market, which expresses the public perception of a potential risk, as derived from the information. This conceptual model might be helpful in the prospective analysis of a market, towards on emergent, new scientific knowledge on food risk and food safety. The model could also express the effects of the public behavior on the scientific agenda related to food safety. Risk perception is usually disseminated in the public by the media. By analyzing the scientific publications and the news, it was searched whether the beef market was impacted by the number of scientific publications on BSE, and its human version, and whether changes in this market could be anticipated by the analysis of the progress of the scientific research, and the behavior of the media regarding that food scare. Bibliometric data was gathered from open, public, online sources, correlating the number of publications on the BSE and its agents with the behavior of the beef market, before, during, and after the food scare crisis. The analysis allowed the characterization of the dynamic of the information, and the identification of the time intervals, and the intensity with which the risk perception was disseminated by the media in the population. In the case studied, one could find that the dissemination of information by the weekly scientific magazines occurred quite rapidly, and that the published news were correlated with the changes of the beef market. The magazines directed to the economic area have dealt the food risk with no special editorial emphasis, while the daily newspapers reacted rapidly and massively. Therefore, before the scientific journals, and the economic magazines, the daily newspapers and the weekly scientific magazines are the main sources of information for evaluating the evolution of the perception of food risk in the society. Further, the analysis of the bibliometric data suggested that, as a response to the public behavior, new scientific research is carried out on subjects related to the food scare. The new publications derived from this research supply newspapers and magazines with new information, and contribute to reduce the uncertainty of the society, and affect positively the behavior of the market.

Este trabalho procura estabelecer a relação entre as informações científicas e da mídia, relativas a um presumido risco associado ao consumo de um produto agroalimentar, e o comportamento do mercado. O caso estudado se refere à ocorrência da encefalopatia espongiforme bovina (BSE) no Reino Unido, no final da década de 1980. O entendimento do processamento da informação científica pela mídia, e o seu efeito no comportamento de um mercado conhecido, pode auxiliar no estabelecimento de um modelo integrado de geração do conhecimento científico, sua difusão pela mídia e impactos no mercado, que refletem a percepção pública de risco alimentar derivada da informação. Este modelo pode auxiliar na análise prospectiva de mercados, frente à geração de novos conhecimentos, relativos a riscos no âmbito da segurança alimentar. O modelo também poderá expressar os efeitos do comportamento do mercado alimentar sobre a pauta futura da pesquisa científica sobre risco alimentar. As percepções de risco são disseminadas na população, em regra, pelas informações que chegam até a mesma, principalmente pela mídia escrita e digital. Analisando as publicações científicas e a difusão de notícias nos informativos da mídia, se buscou determinar se as variáveis de mercado da carne bovina são afetadas pelo número de informações publicadas sobre determinado tema, e se estas variáveis podem ser antecipadas pela produção científica e da mídia sobre risco alimentar. O trabalho consistiu em levantamentos bibliométricos nas bases de dados e fontes de informação on-line, correlacionando-se o número de informações publicadas com o comportamento do mercado da carne, antes, durante e após a crise da BSE. Esta análise permitiu caracterizar os fluxos e a dinâmica da informação, identificando os intervalos de tempo e a intensidade, com os quais a percepção de risco foi repassada pela mídia para a população. No caso estudado, observou-se que a difusão de notícias pelos semanários científicos ocorreu de forma rápida, e que estas notícias se correlacionavam com as variações de mercado ligadas ao consumo de carne bovina. As revistas dirigidas à área econômica trataram do risco alimentar apenas discretamente, enquanto que os jornais diários reagiram de forma rápida e massiva. Por isso, antes dos periódicos científicos e das revistas econômicas, são os jornais diários e os semanários de divulgação científica, as fontes de informação sugeridas para avaliar a percepção de risco da sociedade. Por outro lado, a análise dos dados bibliométricos permitiu constatar que, em resposta ao comportamento da população, novas pesquisas são realizadas sobre temas correlatos, cujas publicações realimentam os jornais e semanários. Essas novas informações contribuem para reduzir o grau de incerteza na sociedade, com reflexos positivos no mercado, independente da natureza e do grau do risco mensurado científicamente. / This work aims to establishing the relationship between the scientific information and the information published by the media, regarding a potential health risk associated to food consumption, and the market of this food. The case studied refers to the events on the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) occurred in the United Kingdom at the end of the 1980s. The understanding of the processing of the scientific information by the media, and its effects on the market behavior, might help in designing a conceptual model which integrates the production of scientific knowledge, its diffusion by the media, and its impacts no the market, which expresses the public perception of a potential risk, as derived from the information. This conceptual model might be helpful in the prospective analysis of a market, towards on emergent, new scientific knowledge on food risk and food safety. The model could also express the effects of the public behavior on the scientific agenda related to food safety. Risk perception is usually disseminated in the public by the media. By analyzing the scientific publications and the news, it was searched whether the beef market was impacted by the number of scientific publications on BSE, and its human version, and whether changes in this market could be anticipated by the analysis of the progress of the scientific research, and the behavior of the media regarding that food scare. Bibliometric data was gathered from open, public, online sources, correlating the number of publications on the BSE and its agents with the behavior of the beef market, before, during, and after the food scare crisis. The analysis allowed the characterization of the dynamic of the information, and the identification of the time intervals, and the intensity with which the risk perception was disseminated by the media in the population. In the case studied, one could find that the dissemination of information by the weekly scientific magazines occurred quite rapidly, and that the published news were correlated with the changes of the beef market. The magazines directed to the economic area have dealt the food risk with no special editorial emphasis, while the daily newspapers reacted rapidly and massively. Therefore, before the scientific journals, and the economic magazines, the daily newspapers and the weekly scientific magazines are the main sources of information for evaluating the evolution of the perception of food risk in the society. Further, the analysis of the bibliometric data suggested that, as a response to the public behavior, new scientific research is carried out on subjects related to the food scare. The new publications derived from this research supply newspapers and magazines with new information, and contribute to reduce the uncertainty of the society, and affect positively the behavior of the market.