Rural-urban differentials in fertility behaviour are neither new nor surprising, but a difference of over four children per woman as observed between rural Ethiopia and the country's national capital, Addis Ababa, in 1990 is rare, possibly unique. Reported fertility in Addis Ababa in 1990 was about 2.6 children per woman. By the mid-1990s, it declined further to 1.8 children per woman. This study investigates the dimensions, components and causes of this remarkable reproductive change. ¶ The study specifically asks and seeks to answer the following questions. Is the decline real, or is it merely an illusion created by faulty reporting? If it is real, how has it come about? Did it result from a change in the onset of reproduction or a decline in the proportion of women reaching high parities or both? And in what context has such a fundamental, even revolutionary, change taken place in a country and a continent that are mostly yet to join the global transition to a small family-size norm. ¶ Data for the study were drawn from two national population censuses, undertaken in 1984 and 1994, two fertility surveys, conducted in 1990 and 1995, and a number of supplementary sources, including a qualitative study conducted by the investigator. Results from the study confirm that the trend of declining fertility and the recent fall to below-replacement-level are indeed real. As the analysis shows the decline was largely driven by changes in the marriage pattern, and supplemented by the increased propensity of fertility control observed across all birth orders and age groups. All socio-economic groups in the city have had a decline in cohort fertility and this was brought about both by shifts in population composition (a composition effect) and increased intensity of fertility control within each group (a rate effect). The institutional and cultural factors that are believed to have prompted these changes are discussed in the thesis in some detail.

How fast and how far China’s fertility declined in the 1990s has long been a matter of considerable debate, despite very low fertility consistently being reported in a number of statistical investigations over time. Most demographers interpreted this as a result of serious underreporting of births in population statistics, due to the family planning program, especially the program strengthening after 1991. Consequently, they suggested that fertility fell only moderately below-replacement level, around 1.8 children per woman from the early 1990s. But some demographers argued that surveys and census may have reflected a real decline of fertility even allowing for some underreporting of births, given the consistency between data sources and over time. They believed that fertility declined substantially in the 1990s, very likely in the range between 1.5 and 1.6 by the year 2000.¶ The controversy over fertility is primarily related to the problem of underreporting of births, in particular the different estimations of the extent of underreporting. However, a correct interpretation of fertility data goes far beyond the pure numbers, which calls for a thorough understanding of different data sources, the programmatic and societal changes that occurred in the 1990s, and their effects on both fertility changes and data collection efforts. This thesis aims to address the question whether the reported far-below-replacement level fertility was a reality of substantial fertility decline or just an illusion arising from underreporting of births. Given the nature of the controversy, it devotes most efforts in assessing data quality, through examining the patterns, causes and extent of underreporting of births in each data source; reconstructing the decline of fertility in the 1990s; and searching corroborating evidence for the decline.¶ After reviewing programmatic changes in the 1990s, this thesis suggests that the program efforts were greatly strengthened, which would help to bring fertility down, but the birth control policy and program target were not tightened as generally believed. The program does affect individual reporting of births, but the completeness of births in each data source is greatly dependent on who collects fertility data and how the data are collected. The thesis then carefully examines the data collection operations and underreporting of births in five sets of fertility data: the hukou statistics, the family planning statistics, population census, annual survey and retrospective survey. The analysis does not find convincing evidence that fertility data deteriorated more seriously in the 1990s than the preceding decade. Rather, it finds that surveys and censuses have a far more complete reporting of births than the registration-based statistics, because they directly obtain information from respondents, largely avoiding intermediate interference from local program workers. In addition, the detailed examination suggests that less than 10 percent births may have been unreported in surveys and censuses. The annual surveys, which included many higher-order our-of-plan births being misreported as first-order births, have more complete reporting of births than censuses, which were affected by the increasing population mobility and field enumeration difficulties, and retrospective surveys, which suffered from underreporting of higher-order births.¶ Using the unadjusted data of annual surveys from 1991 to 1999, 1995 sample census and 2000 census, this research shows that fertility first dropped from 2.3 to 1.7 in the first half of the 1990s, and further declined to a lower level around 1.5-1.6 in the second half of the decade. The comparison with other independent sources corroborates the reliability of this estimation. Putting China’s fertility decline in international perspective, comparison with the experiences of Thailand and Korea also supports such a rapid decline. Subsequently, the thesis reveals an increasingly narrow gap between state demands and popular fertility preferences, and great contributions from delayed marriage and nearly universal contraception. It is concluded that the fertility declined substantially over the course of the 1990s and dropped to a very low level by the end of last century. It is very likely that the combination of a government-enforced birth control program and rapid societal changes quickly moved China into the group of very low-fertility countries earlier than that might have been anticipated, as almost all the others are developed countries.

John Bongaarts' proximate determinants model of fertility has accounted for over 90 percent of variation in the total fertility rate (TFR) of primarily developing nations and historical populations. Recently, dramatically low fertility rates across the globe have raised questions regarding whether this model could be applied to exclusively below-replacement nations. This study follows Knodel, Chamratrithirong, and Debavalya's 1987 analysis of fertility decline in Thailand by conducting in-depth case studies of the proximate determinants in two low fertility countries over time: South Korea, where fertility is well below the level of replacement, and the United States, where fertility has hovered around replacement level for many years. Then, the fertility-inhibiting effect of the proximate determinants is assessed by comparing the quantitative index representing each determinant measured in the 1960s/1970s with its measurement in the 2000s. For both years, I consider the fertility level that would prevail in the determinant's presence as well as the level that would exist in its absence. Finally, I use each of the indices to calculate the TFR and assess how the strength of the model varies over time in the two countries. Ultimately, results indicate that the proximate determinants model does not offer a clean picture of the fertility level in either South Korea or the United States; when trends uncovered by the case studies are compared to the results of the quantitative analysis, a number of inconsistencies are revealed. This suggests that certain components in the model may need to be respecified for more effective application in low-fertility contexts. However, that is not to say that it offers no insight into fertility at all or that it is no longer a useful tool. On the contrary, it is shown that the proximate determinants model holds a lot of potential for analysis in low-fertility nations. The implications of these results, as well as the need for improvements in international data collection efforts, are also discussed.