The determination of long-term goals for climate policy, or of near-term mitigation effort, requires a shared conception among nations of what is at stake. Unfortunately, because of different attitudes to risk, problems of valuing non-market effects, and disagreements about aggregation across rich and poor nations, no single benefit measure is possible that can provide commonly accepted basis for judgment. In response to this circumstance, a portfolio of estimates is recommended, including global variables that can be represented in probabilistic terms, regional impacts expressed in natural units, and integrated monetary valuation. Development of such a portfolio is a research task, and the needed program of work suggested. / Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). / Results cited from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change were developed with the support of the US Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] (DE-FG02-94ER61937) the US Environmental Protection Agency (X-827703-01-0), the Electric Power Research Institute, and by a consortium of industry and foundation sponsors.

Yes / The government increased the funding for regional development agencies to £2.3 billion in 2007/8, yet hard evidence on the effectiveness of the spending is difficult to find. Techniques for valuing benefits in difficult areas have existed for many years. They range from the hedonic methods and contingent valuation studies of environmental economists to the estimates of shadow wage rates used by development economists to take account of the economic value of additional employment. The latter have been used for years in some of the poorest developing countries in the world, as well as some countries in the European Union. Meanwhile some attempts to capture the indirect benefits of regeneration spending have surfaced through the United States with the ‘Social Return on Investment’ and Local Multiplier 3, yet the proponents of these approaches do not seem to have come across the abundant literature on the use of shadow pricing in the context of developing countries. This article attempts to explore the extent to which practices used and lessons learned in the economic analysis of environmental impacts and of investments in developing countries can inform the evaluation and appraisal of regeneration projects in the United Kingdom.

The use of contingent valuation (CV) methods to estimate benefits has become increasingly common in project analysis. Ever since the NOAA Blue Ribbon Panel Report in 1993 (NOAA, 1993) recommended the use of the referendum form of CV, it seems to have become the method of choice in practical settings. Referendum-type questions are thought to be easier to answer than the open-ended variety. But there is a downside: econometric techniques must be applied to the referendum data in order to infer the mean or median willingness to pay (WTP) of the sample and, thus, of the population of potential beneficiaries. This is not, however, just a technical point. Its implications are demonstrated with data obtained from a referendum CV study done for a proposed sewer and wastewater treatment project designed to improve water quality in the Tietê River flowing through the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The results show that: A factor of 4 separates lowest from highest central tendency estimates of WTP, ignoring one implausible outlier that is 14 times larger than the largest of the other figures. This variation is ample enough to make a difference in the cost-benefit analysis results for the project under conservative assumptions. Analysts that use referendum CV data must be sensitive to the problems they buy into, and decide how to deal with the resulting benefits uncertainty in their project analysis. If the principal use of CV survey data is to produce a mean or median estimate of WTP for Cost-Benefit analysis rather than to test for the factors influencing referendum choice responses and, by implication, WTP, nonparametric approaches have the advantage of simplicity over parametric approaches. / Master of Arts