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Population Dynamics of Northern Bobwhites in Southern TexasDemaso, Stephen 16 January 2010 (has links)
Northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) are an important cultural, ecological, and economical part of the southern Texas landscape. I used radio-telemetry data from 2000?2005, part of a long-term, bobwhite study in southern Texas, to test the nest-concealment hypothesis, develop a stochastic simulation model for bobwhite populations, and evaluate the influence of brush canopy coverage (BCC) on short- and long-term demographic performance of bobwhites.
Bobwhite nests tend to be situated in taller and denser vegetation than would be expected if nest-site location was a random process. I compared 4 microhabitat variables between successful (n = 135) and depredated nests (n = 118). I documented similar microhabitat attributes between successful and depredated nests. The discriminant function correctly classified only 48?59% of nest fates into the correct group, but only 18% of the variation in nest fate. Thus, my results did not support the nest-concealment hypothesis.
My stochastic simulation model for bobwhite populations is based on difference equations (?t = 3 months) and simulations run for 100 years using STELLA� 9.0.2. The probability of persistence for 100 years for the spring population was 74.2% and 72.5% for the fall population. Simulated population parameters were similar to those observed in the field for 5 of 6 population parameters. Only simulated male adult annual survival differed by 275.0% from field estimates. Despite this difference, my model appears to be a good predictor of bobwhite populations in the Rio Grande Plains of Texas.
I estimated bobwhite density, survival, and production (proportion of hens nesting, nesting attempts per hen, and clutch size) in 3 study areas with ~10%, ~25%, and >30% BBC. All demographic parameters were similar among the 3 BCC classes. However, simulation modeling indicated that long-term demographic performance was greater on the ~25% and >30% BCC classes. The probability of fall population persistence was greater in the ~25% (90.8%) and >30% (100.0%) BCC classes than in the ~10% BCC class (54.2%). My study highlights the shortcoming of considering only short-term effects when comparing habitat given that short- and long-term effects of habitat on demographic performance can differ.
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