Bulk electric system reliability assessment is an important activity in both vertically integrated and unbundled electric power utilities. The conventional deterministic N-1 criterion normally used in bulk electric system planning does not respond to the probabilistic factors that influence the reliability of the system and is a rigid criterion. New assessment procedures are therefore required that combine the traditional deterministic approach with probabilistic perspectives to provide a responsive planning criterion.<p>This research work introduces the concept of a joint deterministic-probabilistic (D-P) criterion for bulk electric system planning using a previously developed software package designated as MECORE. The D-P concept presented is a deterministic framework that incorporates a probabilistic criterion. This research examines the application of the conventional deterministic N-1, the basic probabilistic and the D-P criteria to two test systems. The studies show that the D-P approach is driven by the accepted deterministic N-1 criterion and influenced by the probabilistic criterion (Pc). The D-P technique adds additional probabilistic risk information to the traditional deterministic N-1 criterion that is useful when making system reinforcement decisions. <p>The research work illustrated in this thesis indicates that the D-P criterion and associated procedures for bulk electric system analysis can be effectively utilized in bulk electric system reliability assessment. The conclusions and the techniques presented in this thesis should prove valuable to those responsible for composite generation and transmission system expansion planning.

Bulk electric system reliability assessment is an important activity in both vertically integrated and unbundled electric power utilities. The conventional deterministic N-1 criterion normally used in bulk electric system planning does not respond to the probabilistic factors that influence the reliability of the system and is a rigid criterion. New assessment procedures are therefore required that combine the traditional deterministic approach with probabilistic perspectives to provide a responsive planning criterion.<p>This research work introduces the concept of a joint deterministic-probabilistic (D-P) criterion for bulk electric system planning using a previously developed software package designated as MECORE. The D-P concept presented is a deterministic framework that incorporates a probabilistic criterion. This research examines the application of the conventional deterministic N-1, the basic probabilistic and the D-P criteria to two test systems. The studies show that the D-P approach is driven by the accepted deterministic N-1 criterion and influenced by the probabilistic criterion (Pc). The D-P technique adds additional probabilistic risk information to the traditional deterministic N-1 criterion that is useful when making system reinforcement decisions. <p>The research work illustrated in this thesis indicates that the D-P criterion and associated procedures for bulk electric system analysis can be effectively utilized in bulk electric system reliability assessment. The conclusions and the techniques presented in this thesis should prove valuable to those responsible for composite generation and transmission system expansion planning.

Electric power systems are experiencing dramatic changes with respect to structure, operation and regulation and are facing increasing pressure due to environmental and societal constraints. Bulk electric system reliability is an important consideration in power system planning, design and operation particularly in the new competitive environment. A wide range of methods have been developed to perform bulk electric system reliability evaluation. Theoretically, sequential Monte Carlo simulation can include all aspects and contingencies in a power system and can be used to produce an informative set of reliability indices. It has become a practical and viable tool for large system reliability assessment technique due to the development of computing power and is used in the studies described in this thesis. The well-being approach used in this research provides the opportunity to integrate an accepted deterministic criterion into a probabilistic framework. This research work includes the investigation of important factors that impact bulk electric system adequacy evaluation and security constrained adequacy assessment using the well-being analysis framework.<p> Load forecast uncertainty is an important consideration in an electrical power system. This research includes load forecast uncertainty considerations in bulk electric system reliability assessment and the effects on system, load point and well-being indices and reliability index probability distributions are examined. There has been increasing worldwide interest in the utilization of wind power as a renewable energy source over the last two decades due to enhanced public awareness of the environment. Increasing penetration of wind power has significant impacts on power system reliability, and security analyses become more uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of wind power. The effects of wind power additions in generating and bulk electric system reliability assessment considering site wind speed correlations and the interactive effects of wind power and load forecast uncertainty on system reliability are examined. The concept of the security cost associated with operating in the marginal state in the well-being framework is incorporated in the economic analyses associated with system expansion planning including wind power and load forecast uncertainty. Overall reliability cost/worth analyses including security cost concepts are applied to select an optimal wind power injection strategy in a bulk electric system. The effects of the various demand side management measures on system reliability are illustrated using the system, load point, and well-being indices, and the reliability index probability distributions. The reliability effects of demand side management procedures in a bulk electric system including wind power and load forecast uncertainty considerations are also investigated. The system reliability effects due to specific demand side management programs are quantified and examined in terms of their reliability benefits.

Electric power systems are experiencing dramatic changes with respect to structure, operation and regulation and are facing increasing pressure due to environmental and societal constraints. Bulk electric system reliability is an important consideration in power system planning, design and operation particularly in the new competitive environment. A wide range of methods have been developed to perform bulk electric system reliability evaluation. Theoretically, sequential Monte Carlo simulation can include all aspects and contingencies in a power system and can be used to produce an informative set of reliability indices. It has become a practical and viable tool for large system reliability assessment technique due to the development of computing power and is used in the studies described in this thesis. The well-being approach used in this research provides the opportunity to integrate an accepted deterministic criterion into a probabilistic framework. This research work includes the investigation of important factors that impact bulk electric system adequacy evaluation and security constrained adequacy assessment using the well-being analysis framework.<p> Load forecast uncertainty is an important consideration in an electrical power system. This research includes load forecast uncertainty considerations in bulk electric system reliability assessment and the effects on system, load point and well-being indices and reliability index probability distributions are examined. There has been increasing worldwide interest in the utilization of wind power as a renewable energy source over the last two decades due to enhanced public awareness of the environment. Increasing penetration of wind power has significant impacts on power system reliability, and security analyses become more uncertain due to the unpredictable nature of wind power. The effects of wind power additions in generating and bulk electric system reliability assessment considering site wind speed correlations and the interactive effects of wind power and load forecast uncertainty on system reliability are examined. The concept of the security cost associated with operating in the marginal state in the well-being framework is incorporated in the economic analyses associated with system expansion planning including wind power and load forecast uncertainty. Overall reliability cost/worth analyses including security cost concepts are applied to select an optimal wind power injection strategy in a bulk electric system. The effects of the various demand side management measures on system reliability are illustrated using the system, load point, and well-being indices, and the reliability index probability distributions. The reliability effects of demand side management procedures in a bulk electric system including wind power and load forecast uncertainty considerations are also investigated. The system reliability effects due to specific demand side management programs are quantified and examined in terms of their reliability benefits.