Climate policy regarding perfluorocarbons (PFCs) may have a significant influence on investment decisions in the production of primary aluminum. This work demonstrates an integrated analysis of the effectiveness and likely economic consequences of different climate policy options. In our study we first compare atmospheric observations to the available estimates of PFC emissions for the baseline years 1990 and 1995. We then present projections for regional emissions of PFCs from the aluminum industry using the MIT Emissions Projection and Policy Analysis model under different policy scenarios. Abatement costs for emissions of PFCs and CO2 are compared in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 17-18). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

The current misplaced focus on short-term climate policies is a product both of domestic political exigencies and badly flawed technical analyses. A prime example of the latter is a recent U.S. Department of Energy study, prepared by five national laboratories. The 5-Labs study assumes —- incorrectly —- that technical solutions are readily at hand. Worse, advocates of short-term emissions targets under the Framework Convention on Climate Change are using this study to justify the subsidy of existing energy technologies —- diverting resources from the effective long-term technology response that will be needed if the climate picture darkens. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 15-16). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

There are many obstacles to the development of an international CO₂ emissions trading system, but the biggest is a feature that is often assumed: the existence of a single national system. Once a national system is in place, an international system will develop naturally more as a matter of self-interested trade than as international agreement. Meeting the Kyoto targets will create a scarcity; and the scarcity requires that use and the associated rent be allocated somehow. This allocation — deciding who gets what — is a familiar problem and the largest impediment to the creation of a national system, and thus of an international regime of CO₂ emissions trading. The paper reviews the various instruments by which such the Kyoto target might be met from the standpoint of the allocation of the scarce use and the associated rent. In particular, the paper emphasizes that existing users will largely continue to use the scarce resource and that they now actively exercise the incipient right to the proposed scarcity. Creation of the scarcity and the allocation of rights raise fundamental issues of equity that lie pre-eminently in the political realm. The author observes that the creation of the scarcity and the allocation of rights are fused and that agreement on one will occur only as there is agreement on the other. Nevertheless, such problems have been solved before — for land and for SO₂ permits — although in both cases the conditions were easier than what is now proposed for CO₂. An international CO₂ trading system will develop from a national allowance system for the same reasons that trading can be expected to occur domestically. However, the unavoidable requirement of certification and verification will impede access to non-Annex B sources of emission reduction, and at the same time encourage countries with such sources to accept Annex B limits. The negotiation of such limits raises the same problems of allocation as faced at the national level, only on a global scale; and there is even less agreement here. Nevertheless, the discussion on global allocation will not begin in earnest until a national system creates the trade opportunities that will make an Annex B limit worth pursuing. The development of an international system for CO₂ emissions trading should not be expected to be either quick or easy, but to occur only by accretion and mostly as a matter of self-interested trade. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 12). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

This paper examines the effect of the Kyoto Protocol on developing economies using marginal abatement curves generated by MIT's Emissions Prediction and Policy Assessment model (EPPA). In particular, the paper addresses how developing countries are affected by the scope of CO2 emissions trading, by various limitations that Annex I countries might place on emissions trading, by the nature of the Clean Development Mechanism, and by changes in the international trade flows in conventional goods and services. In general, it is found that developing countries benefit from emissions trading, both from the new export opportunities and by the lesser distortion of Annex I economies. This effect is particularly pronounced for energy exporting countries since Annex I countries are able to substitute cheaper reductions of coal emissions in developing countries for more expensive reductions of oil emissions within Annex I. The paper also highlights the implications of the apparent inelastic demand for tradable permits from non-Annex I countries and the conflict between revenue maximization and other goals assigned to the Clean Development Mechanism. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 22-23). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Marginal abatement curves (MACs) are often used heuristically to demonstrate the advantages of emissions trading. In this paper, the authors derive MACs from EPPA, the MIT Joint Program's computable general equilibrium model of global economic activity, energy use and CO₂ emissions, to analyze the benefits of emissions trading in achieving the emission reduction targets implied by the Kyoto Protocol. The magnitude and distribution of the gains from emissions trading are examined for both an Annex B market and for full global trading, as well as the effects of import limitations, non-competitive behavior, and less than fully efficient supply. In general, trading benefits all parties at least some, and from a global standpoint, the gains from trading are greater, the wider and less constrained is the market. The distribution of the gains from trading is, however, highly skewed in favor of those who would face the highest costs in the absence of emissions trading. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

In this paper, we present an integrated framework for structuring and evaluating sequential greenhouse gas abatement policies under uncertainty. The analysis integrates information concerning the magnitude, timing, and impacts of climate change with data on the likely effectiveness and cost of possible response options, using reduced-scale representations of the global climate system drawn from the MIT Integrated Global System Model. To illustrate the method, we explore emissions control policies of the form considered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 27-28). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Includes bibliographical references (p. 22-23). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Includes bibliographical references (p. 64-73). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

The possible trends for atmospheric carbon monoxide in the next 100 yr have been illustrated using a coupled atmospheric chemistry and climate model driven by emissions predicted by a global economic development model. Various model runs with different assumptions regarding emissions or model parameters have been carried out to investigate the impacts of model and emission uncertainties on the predictions. We have found complicated interactions among emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and climate regarding the distributions and evolution of CO in the atmosphere. Based on the predicted emissions of methane and carbon monoxide, the model predicts an increasing trend of carbon monoxide in the next century with a tropospheric mole fraction of CO in 2100 double its present-day value. Methane emissions are found to have the most important effect on the future atmospheric CO budget. High methane emissions cause significant depletion of tropospheric OH, increase of CO concentrations, and lengthening of lifetimes of many chemical species including CO and CH4. The global average atmospheric lifetime of CO is predicted in our reference model run to be about 0.6 month longer than its present value (~2 months). The predicted emissions of CO increase only slightly over the next century, so the impact of CO emissions on the predicted CO abundance appears to be less important than that of methane. Consequently, maintaining the emissions of CH4 at their current levels can prevent significant future changes in tropospheric chemistry, while similar controlling emissions of CO cannot achieve the same result. This study also indicates that climate variations, especially those causing changes in H2O concentrations, can influence atmospheric trends of carbon monoxide. A two-way interaction between chemistry and climate regarding CO is evident. Specifically, the budget of atmospheric CO affects the destruction of methane and the production of CO2, ozone, and sulfate aerosols and thus affects climate, while the resultant changes in climate modify the budget of CO-CH4 in turn through their effects on H2O and temperature. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 11). / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)

Using a coupled global atmospheric chemistry and climate model we have predicted the evolution of tropospheric concentrations of chemical species along with climate parameters, based on a set of economic model predictions for anthropogenic emissions of chemically and radiatively important trace gases in the next 120 years. In particular, our predictions for tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations indicate the potential for substantial future changes affecting both atmospheric chemistry and climate. OH is arguably the most important free radical in the troposphere because it is the primary removal mechanism for most gases entering the atmosphere, and therefore, determines the lifetimes of these species. Our research indicates that if CH4 and CO emissions continually increase as expected through the next century, the tropospheric concentration of OH could decrease by as much as 29% from its current value. As a result, the lifetime of CO in the year 2100 is predicted to lengthen by 0.6 months beyond its current value of 2 months, and the CH4 lifetime in 2100 would exceed its current value (9 years) by 2.5 years in our reference case. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)