This thesis studies the Chinese banks’ credit risk assessment using the Post Keynesian approach. We argue that bank loans are the major financial sources in emerging economies and it is uncertainty, an unquantifiable risk, rather than asymmetric information about quantifiable risk, as held by the mainstream approach, which is most important for the risk attached to credit loans, and this uncertainty is particularly important in China. With the universal existence of uncertainty, borrowers and lenders have to make decisions based on convention and experience. With regard to the nature of decision-making, this implies the importance of qualitative methods rather than quantitative methods. The current striking problem in Chinese banking is the large amount of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and this research aims to address the NPLs through improving credit risk management. Rather than the previous literature where Western models are introduced into China directly or with minor modification, this work advocates building on China’s conventional domestic methods to deal with uncertainty. We briefly review the background of the Chinese banking history with an evolutionary view and examine Chinese conventions in the development of the credit market. Based on an overview of this history, it is argued that Soft Budget Constraints (SBC) and the underdeveloped risk-assessing mechanism contributed to the accumulation of NPLs. Informed by Western models and experience, we have made several suggestions about rebuilding the Chinese convention of credit risk assessment, based on an analysis of publications and interviews with Chinese bankers. We also suggest some further development of the Asset Management Companies (AMCs) which are used to dispose of the NPLs.

本文以馬來西亞近代發展沿革為經，華人族裔金融機構的組織變貌為緯，同時援引社會學族裔經濟（ethnic economy）之理論及概念，作為歷史詮釋的張本，嘗試勾稽華人族裔金融機構的發展梗概，論析砂拉越華資銀行在此脈絡下的發展與侷限。進而回答何以全馬僅大眾、豐隆等少數繼續茁壯，更大多數的華人金融機構卻陸續退出市場？及其所蘊寓的華人族裔經濟意涵為何？ 本文指出，在英人殖民時期，華人移民因創業謀生之所需，同族互助而有華資銀行等族裔金融機構的誕生，隨著華人逐漸融入當地生活而在戰後初年達到發展高峰。嗣後馬來西亞聯邦成立，華資銀行則在國家大力扶持土著資本的影響下趨向邊緣化；1997年東南亞金融風暴後，馬國政府力促銀行整併以回應全球化競爭，過程中華人資本被迫淡出，多數的華資銀行也因而走入歷史。總體而言，華資銀行歷經「在地化」及「土著化」進程，反映出馬來西亞華人經濟的質量變化，就社會學的領域，即是華人在馬國金融業的參與，已由早期族裔擁有的經濟（ethnic ownership economy），朝族裔控制的經濟（ethnic control economy）方向演化。 在企業史的層次，個案研究顯示：馬國絕大多數的華資銀行屬中小型規模，發展深受在地政商脈絡及華人族裔特性之影響。砂拉越的華資銀行脫胎於傳統的族裔金融機構，專注於當地業務及同族市場，有著穩健成長的特色，雖對華人經濟作出貢獻，卻難以應付一再增加的族群政策鉗制及市場競爭壓力。本文也發現，隨著時間過去，華資銀行的族裔色彩逐漸淡化，幫權結構也不斷崩解，惟有家族經營始終強韌，顯示族裔特性依然存在，但其內涵早已今非昔比；而主導銀行的家族不願向外發展，擴大規模，以免流失控制權的保守心態，亦侷限其進一步發展的可能性。 / This paper studies the history of Chinese ethnic financial institutions in Malaysia, and explores its implications of the “ethnic economy” theory. Following this context, this article aims to explore the societal changes resulting from the adaptation of Chinese communities to the local host population, and gradual transformation of family-controlled Malaysian Chinese banks and ethnic financial institutions. Meanwhile, I also uses case study to discuss the development and limitation of a Sarawak bank. In this paper, I try to answer the reasons why a few Chinese banks in Malaysia thrived while other ethnic financial institutions eventually went out of business. And how do the evolution of ethnic financial institutions and the related turning point reflect the meaning of the ethnic economy? I pointed out that ethnic financial institutions were created under a particular time period and background, ethnic entrepreneurs fined-tuned their resources for applicable business strategy, and their strategy allowed Chinese communities to expand in every aspect of the economy at the early colonial era. Banking systems in Singapore, Malaya and Sarawak were originally introduced by the British; later Chinese communities became involved and the financial industry reached its peak in the first few years after the World War II. The Chinese banks played a great role in the local financial industries/enterprises at the time were owned by single or multiple families. The industry then underwent a series of events, such as the sovereign separation of Singapore and Malaysia, implementation of New Economic Policy(NEP), and ongoing mergers since the millennium, resulting in only two Chinese banks, Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank, remaining in the industry with a continued decline in the proportion of their stockholding. Malaysian Chinese with significant amounts of capital were once highly involved in the banking and financial industry, but with the passage of time, the development of Chinese financial institutions was subject to the phenomenon of “indigenization” and “bumiputraization”, which both hindered their ongoing development and later drove them out of business. In the light of the ethnic economy theory, Participation of Chinese financial institutions in Malaysia were moving from an "ethnic ownership economy" towards an "ethnic controlled economy". The analysis of the Sarawak case indicates the development of Chinese banks was subject to the influence of political and local business relationships, and the distinctive ethnic features of the Chinese communities. The majority of the Chinese banks in Sarawak evolved from ethnic financial institutions, small and medium-sized business within the family control, they focused on local businesses and markets of the same ethnicity. Even though these banks contributed to the ethnic economy and saw constant growth, they were swept aside by the tide of history once the political and economic environment began to change. This article also discovered that as time went by, Chinese bank gradually changed their image as ethnic banks. The structure of “dialect groups” began to collapse as well; this was a distinctly ethnic concept whereby only family management could maintain the existence of a corporation. The major limitations which restricted the development of ethnic financial institutions were conservative family management and a reluctance to expand outward in the hope of preventing the dispersion of power.