Global climate models predict changes in precipitation patterns in many areas of the world. Extreme precipitation in particular is poorly represented in climate models and there are significant difficulties involved in assessing the frequency and severity of future extreme precipitation events. In this study, several methods have been reviewed and compared for estimating projected changes in Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, commonly used in urban hydrology. A theoretical approach based on geostatistical considerations is employed to derive reasonable areal-reduction factors that make it possible to compare gridded model data with observations. The mean value method and QQ-mapping have been used to remove biases from modeled data. A simple scaling model has been developed to construct IDF curves using the bias-corrected modeled data for the control and future climate. To investigate uncertainties in predicted changes, different simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) have been analyzed.

Knowledge of past chmate variability is vital if the causes of observed chmate changes since instrumental records began are to be fully understood, particularly those, post-1850 AD, possibly due to anthropogenic activity. The past two millennia provide a long enough background with which to compare post-r850 AD change, whilst errors on proxy records remain relatively small. In the Eastem Mediterranean changes in water balance are of particular interest as water is an important resource. Oxygen isotope records from lakes in the region record changes in water balance and are therefore an important archive for observing natural, and anthropogenicaly forced, variabiUty in hydrology. Full understanding of cUmate proxies requires high-resolution analysis through the instramental time period for comparison with measured climate variability. Varved lake sediments provide the possibility for obtaining annually-resolvedarchives of climate proxies, andstrong chronological control through time. In this study gebchemical-climate proxies including oxygen and stable carbon isotope ratios were measured from two lakes in central Turkey with varved sediment archives. Lake Burdur's complex carbonate mineralogy and large catchment led to stable isotope data that is controlled by a variety of mischariisms and highlights the complex nature of some lake-isotope systems. A 1725 year long record was obtained from Nar GolU, with the top 900 years analysed at an annual resolution. Calibration of the top of this record with instmmental cHmate records suggests stable isotope variability at Nar is controlled by changes in evaporation, driven by changes in sunmier temperature and relative humidity. The proxy record from Nar shows sununer evaporation at Nar to be enhanced at times of increased Indian and African monsoon rainfall, and reduced during drier monsoon periods. Major shifts in the chmate system occur c. 500 and c. 1400 AD associated with times of change between relatively warm and cold periods of Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Cycles, with a frequency of 64 years, observed in the Nar isotope record and proxy records of solar activity suggest a solar forcing mechanism for decadal variability in the Eastem Mediterranean-Indian- African sununer climate system.

Vad händer om de ständiga förbättringarna tar slut? Förmågan att ständigt utvecklas och förändras har i vårt samhälle och inom den svenska industrin blivit en allt viktigare konkurrensfördel för att skapa framgångsrika organisationer. Marknadsförändringar förekommer numera i en alltmer progressiv takt och det framstår att organisationer med ett gott kreativt klimat förmår att skapa goda förutsättningar för att hantera omvärldens föränderlighet. Kärnan för industriella organisationer är ytterst att upprätthålla en accepterad produktionstakt och samtidigt skapa ett kreativt klimat som ger goda förutsättningar för att utveckling kan frodas. Det råder en enighet om att organisationer med ett gott kreativt klimat som ger medarbetare stöd, möjlighet och utrymme att omsätta idéer till verklig nytta, skapar goda förutsättningar för organisationers utvecklingsförmåga. Lösningen blir således organisationers interna kreativa klimat och hur förutsättningar för att förhålla sig utvecklingsorienterad skapas, i en alltmer föränderlig miljö, med en tro på den enskilda medarbetares förmåga att ständigt utvecklas. Organisationer har således mycket att vinna på att förstå och kontinuerligt mäta skillnaden mellan det rådande kreativa klimatet och det eftertraktade klimatet. Syftet med den här fallstudien är att mäta en svensk industris kreativa klimat och undersöka vilka hinder och möjligheter organisationens ledare och medarbetare upplever i utvecklingsarbetet.  Ett sekundärt syfte är att bidra till en ökad förståelse av förutsättningarna för en utvecklingsorienterad organisation i en industriell kontext genom att undersöka, utvärdera och analysera komplexiteten av utvecklingsarbetet. Studien visar en diskrepans i det kreativa klimatet mellan organisationens befintliga avdelningar och uppmuntrar till ytterligare forskning för att åskådliggöra de kausala relationerna.

No description available.

In the warm humid tropical climate of Bali, Indonesia, overheating and high humidity influence occupants' comfort, indoor climate and the comfort of their homes, both directly and indirectly. The traditional way to deal with these problems, using natural ventilation, was ecologically sound and acceptable. However, development of tourism in Bali has had a positive impact on people's earning, causing cultural pressure, migration and a rapid rise in the urban population, as well as increasing housing demand. In urban areas, the methods of climate modification have moved away from natural ventilation, and comfort is now more often achieved by installing air conditioning. This has caused increasing energy use and had economic impact. As world-wide energy consumption will continue to increase, the use of more energy will have more impact on global warming. In these circumstances, energy efficiency is paramount, particularly in the dwelling designs for new housing development in Indonesia. The study focuses on the design of a thermally comfortable dwelling in the warm humid climate of Bali, Indonesia, with emphasis on the energy efficiency of the naturally ventilated and air-conditioned dwelling. Using a computer program and energy conservation strategies, a dwelling design was simulated. A model dwelling was adopted from a standard house type for people on a middle class income, based on the family size of a couple with two children. Such units are built by the National Housing Authority of Indonesia. A comprehensive study of the computer-simulation outcomes, survey research, previous works undertaken and literature reviews were carried out, to develop a thermally comfortable dwelling design. This new thermally efficient dwelling design was simulated to draw the final conclusions of the research. The research discovered that the combination of both natural ventilation and air conditioning, integrated with the combined design of a compound-compact dwelling, are an intelligent response to the thermal comfort performance problems of a dwelling in the warm humid climate and architecturally adaptable to the culture of Bali. The study found that a combination of natural ventilation with air conditioning which is only used when necessary, coupled with insulation and shading devices, can significantly reduce energy consumption and achieve adequate thermal comfort. In this respect, however, architectural design should come first, and be considered before an engineering solution. The reasons are that architectural solutions are more robust, and has a long duration of applicability, while the technology is perhaps the opposite, being prone to mechanical failure. When a less compact dwelling is designed, increased use of natural ventilation can be achieved. The use of airtight construction, insulation in the building envelope and shading devices are effective ways of reducing the air-conditioning load.

The intent of this study was to investigate the efficient use of energy by developing an energy efficient grocery store combined with cogeneration. This study demonstrated the potential to reduce the energy use in buildings, by implementing a decentralized source of energy generation that allowed for the use of a portion of the energy generated to be shared across building boundaries. This study considered a high energy use building such as a grocery store to be a part of a residential community, which could potentially participate in the sharing of energy across building boundaries. To better utilize energy resources the study proposed the implementation of a cogeneration facility to supply energy primarily to the store. Surplus energy generated by this cogeneration system was then shared with the requirements of the surrounding residential community. Finally, in order to better account for energy consumption of these buildings both site and source energy was considered. The study focused on hot and humid climates. This study was presented in two parts: Analyzing conventional grocery store systems to determine the maximum savings possible; and examining the option of co-generation systems to provide power to grocery stores and a portion of the community in order to reduce source energy use for the grocery store and a portion of the surrounding community. Source energy savings were in the range of 47% to 54% depending on the energy efficiency measures selected and the cogeneration configuration determined in the grocery store. Economic payback periods in the range of 4 to 7 years (time until zero net present value) were observed. The selection of appropriate options was narrowed down to two options that utilized more thermal energy within the boundaries of the store and generated more amount of surplus energy to be absorbed by the neighboring residential buildings.

Population dynamics of ducks is a complex process influenced by both biotic and abiotic factors, and good understanding about the mechanisms behind this process is needed not only for the management of duck harvest but also for the conservation of wetland, which is under threat in the face of land change and climate warming. Basic time series analysis techniques, such as correlogram, partial correlogram and periodogram, cluster analysis and partial least squares regression (PLSR) are applied to the long-term breeding population data gathered by Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey and monthly weather data from Environment Canada in order to explore the pattern in the duck abundance data and the effect of local weather on population dynamics of ducks. Results of above analysis show that the duck abundance of previous years has short but strong correlation with the duck abundance of following years suggesting a large part of variability in duck abundance is explained by the abundance of previous years, especially that of last year. There is also clear periodic pattern in the duck abundance data, but the length of the cycle varies both for duck species and ecozones suggesting separating duck species and ecozones for analysis is necessary. The effects of weather on duck populations appear weak or absent in most PLSR models; this is consistent with previous studies. More detailed information, such as age structure of the duck populations and interspecific interactions, will be needed for future modeling. Among the small number of PLSR models exhibiting the weather effect, results suggest potential mechanisms, such as the impact of weather on recharge and discharge of wetland basins and nest failure caused by flooding.

No description available.

University of Technology, Sydney. Faculty of Engineering. / This research has analysed the economy-wide impacts of carbon tax as a policy option to reduce the rate of growth of carbon-dioxide emissions from the electricity sector in Australia. These impacts are analysed for energy and non energy sectors of the economy. An energy-oriented Input–Output framework, with ‘flexible’ production functions, based on Translog and Cobb-Douglas formulations, is employed for the analysis of various impacts. Further, two alternative conceptions of carbon tax are considered in this research, namely, based on Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) and Shared Responsibility Principle (SRP). In the first instance, the impacts are analysed, for the period 2005–2020, for tax levels of $10 and $20 per tonne of CO2, in a situation of no a-priori limit on CO2 emissions. The analysis shows that CO2 emissions from the electricity sector, when carbon tax is based on PPP, would be 211 and 152 Mt, for tax levels of $10 and $20, respectively (as compared to 250 Mt in the Base Case scenario, that is, the business-as-usual-case). The net economic costs, corresponding with these tax levels, expressed in present value terms, would be $27 and $49 billion, respectively, over the period 2005-2020. These economic costs are equivalent to 0.43 and 0.78 per cent of the estimated GDP of Australia. Further, most of the economic burden, in this instance, would fall on the electricity sector, particularly coal-fired electricity generators – large consumers of direct fossil fuel. On the other hand, in the case of a carbon tax based on SRP, CO2 emissions would be 172 and 116 Mt, for tax levels of $10 and $20, respectively. The corresponding net economic costs would be $47 (0.74 per cent of GDP) and $84 (1.34 per cent of GDP) billion, respectively, with significant burden felt by the commercial sector – large consumers of indirect energy and materials whose production would contribute to CO2 emissions. Next, the impacts are analysed by placing an a-priori limit on CO2 emissions from the electricity sector – equivalent to 108 per cent of the 1990 level (that is, 138 Mt), by the year 2020. Two cases are analysed, namely, early action (carbon tax introduced in 2005) and deferred action (carbon tax introduced in 2010). In the case of early action, the analysis suggests, carbon tax of $25 and $15, based on PPP and SRP, respectively, would be required to achieve the above noted emissions target. The corresponding tax levels in the case of deferred action are $51 and $26, respectively. This research also shows that the net economic costs, in the case of early action, would be $32 billion (for PPP) and $18 billion (for SRP) higher than those in the case of deferred action. However, this research has demonstrated, that this inference is largely due to the selection of particular indicator (that is, present value) and the relatively short time frame (that is, 2005–2020) for analysis. By extending the time frame of the analysis to the year 2040, the case for an early introduction of carbon tax strengthens. Overall, the analysis in this research suggests that an immediate introduction of carbon tax, based on SRP, is the most attractive approach to reduce the rate of growth of CO2 emissions from the electricity sector and to simultaneously meet economic and social objectives. If the decision to introduce such a tax is deferred, it would be rather difficult to achieve not only environmental objectives but economic and social objectives as well.

The IPCC Third Assessment report (IPCC 2001a) concludes that Australia has significant vulnerability to the changes in temperature and rainfall projected over the next decades to 100 years. Agriculture and natural resources were two of the key sectors identified as likely to be strongly affected. Climate change will add to the existing, substantial pressures on Australia’s grape and wine industry sector. Vineyards have a life of thirty plus years so right now, when selecting vineyard sites, or when managing existing vineyards, consideration of the changing climate is prudent. (For complete abstract open document)