One of the benefits of colonial living in insect societies is the ability to build a nest which enables the maintenance of a homeostatic microenvironment. The detrimental and uncertain effects of fluctuating ambient conditions are thus avoided. An extensive amount of work has documented the regulation of respiratory gases and temperature by honeybee (Apis mellifera) colonies but relatively little is known of their water relations. Nest humidity influences the fitness of the honeybee colony by affecting adult and brood mortality, microbial and parasitic growth, nectar concentration and thermoregulation. This study aims at determining whether honeybee colonies are able to actively regulate humidity within their nest or whether humidity is stabilised merely as consequence of other socially regulated parameters. As a first step in understanding water relations in a hive, the daily, seasonal and two-dimensional humidity patterns are described in diverse contexts: various subspecies, nest architectures, ambient climates and colony conditions. The humidity in the brood nest of a healthy honeybee colony does not show a daily pattern: mean hourly RH remains between 50 and 60 % and high vapour pressure deficit results in a large evaporative capacity. Two-dimensional humidity patterns show that a vapour pressure gradient exists from the central brood area to the periphery of a hive. This finding suggests possible active regulation by workers and to test this idea we determined the behavioural response of a group of workers to a humidity gradient. Young honeybee workers in the absence of brood exhibit a weak hygropreference for approximately 75% RH. When brood is present the expression of this preference is further weakened, suggesting that workers tend to the brood by distributing evenly in the gradient. In addition, fanning behaviour is shown to be triggered by increasing humidity adding to our understanding of this behaviour. Although these results suggest that humidity in honeybee colonies is actively controlled by workers, passive mechanisms are also involved in the observed patterns. Cocoons that are spun by the larvae accumulate in cells and these hygroscopic cocoons contribute to passive stabilisation of humidity. Old comb containing cocoons absorb 11 % of its own mass in water when placed in high humidity and this water can readily evaporate into the atmosphere when humidity decreases. This buffering effect may increase brood survivorship by maintaining a high and stable humidity in the brood cells. This study contributes to our understanding of the complex mechanisms that govern microclimatic regulation in social insect nests and specifically the active and passive mechanisms that ensure homeostasis of honeybee nest humidity. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Zoology and Entomology / unrestricted

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Effective coastal adaptation to sea-level rise requires an understanding of how much and how fast glaciers and ice sheets will melt in the coming decades, together with an understanding of the provenance of that ice melt. When land ice is lost to the oceans, sea-levels do not rise uniformly across the globe, but exhibit a “sea-level fingerprint” specific to the source of ice melt, posing an important question motivating this thesis: Which ice mass(es) will contribute the first 1m/3 feet of sea-level rise? The glacial-geologic record archives the vulnerability of ice sheets and their sub-sectors to past warming. To analyze this record of past glacial change, I develop and apply cosmogenic-nuclide techniques for investigating the climate sensitivity of four key ice sheets. The novel geochemical techniques described here also allow me to investigate processes of landscape evolution, including subglacial and subaerial erosion. Subglacial erosion dictates landscape development in glaciated and formerly glaciated settings, which in turn influences ice-flow dynamics and the climate sensitivity of ice masses, making it an important input in ice-sheet models. In Chapter 1, I use 10Be measurements in surficial bedrock and a 4-m-long bedrock near Jakobshavn Isbræ, to constrain the erosion rate beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on historical and orbital timescales. 10Be concentrations measured below ~2 m depth in a 4-m-long bedrock core are greater than what is predicted by an idealized production-rate depth profile and I develop a model to utilize this excess 10Be at depth to constrain orbital-scale erosion rates. I find that erosion rates beneath GrIS were 0.4–0.8 mm yr-1 during historical times and 0.1–0.3 mm yr-1 on Pleistocene timescales. The broad similarity between centennial- and orbital-scale erosion rates suggests that subglacial erosion rates adjacent to Jakobshavn Isbræ have remained relatively uniform throughout the Pleistocene. In Chapter 2, I present cosmogenic 10Be and 3He data from Ferrar dolerite pyroxenes in surficial rock samples and a bedrock core from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, opening new opportunities for exposure dating in mafic rocks. I describe scalable laboratory methods for isolating beryllium from pyroxene, estimate a spallation production rate for 10Be in this mineral phase, referenced to 3He, of 3.6 ± 0.2 atoms g-1 yr-1, and present initial estimates for parameters associated with 10Be and 3He production by negative muon capture. I also demonstrate that the 10Be-3He pair in pyroxene can be used to simultaneously resolve exposure ages and subaerial erosion rates, and that the precision of my 10Be measurements in pyroxene enable exposure dating on Last Glacial Maximum to Late Holocene surfaces, including moraines, on a global scale. In Chapter 3, I apply exposure dating locally to investigate the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and initial deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), the most dynamic continental ice sheet, in southern New England and New York City. I synthesize new and existing exposure age chronologies from moraines and other glacial deposits that span ~26 to 20.5 ka, and quantify retreat rates for the southeastern LIS margin. Initial retreat at <5 to 30 m yr-1 started within the canonical LGM period, representing the slowest LIS retreat rates of the entire New England deglacial record, which I relate to a slow rise in modeled local summer temperatures through the LGM. Employing similar exposure dating techniques in Chapter 4, I describe the first 10Be ages from nunataks of the Juneau Icefield (JIF), Alaska, that I collected through the Juneau Icefield Research Program (JIRP) in order to evaluate icefield thinning during the Late Glacial and Holocene. I find that the JIF was smaller-than-present under warm climate conditions during the early-to-mid Holocene, elucidating the sensitivity of the icefield to warming. Tackling the climate crisis more broadly and in turn, addressing pressing Earth science questions like those posed in this dissertation, requires diverse perspectives. Yet, the Earth sciences have historically been among the least diverse of the STEM disciplines. As one contribution to a comprehensive effort through JIRP to increase diversity in the geosciences pipeline, Chapter 5 details the curriculum for a two-week course titled ‘A Virtual Expedition to the Juneau Icefield’ that I co-designed and co-taught in 2021 to bring accessible polar science experiences to high school students.

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The impact of in vitro ozone and sulfur dioxide fumigation on pollen from two Fraser fir populations was examined. Populations were located at Mt. Rogers, Va, and Mt. Mitchell, S.C.. Two age groups "young" (less then 30 years old) and "old" (more then 40 years old) were examined within each population. No statistically significant age group differences in pollen germination percentage or pollen tube length were found. Mt. Mitchell pollen had a higher germination percentage than Mt. Rogers population. The statistically significant differences in pollen germination between populations were most probably due to the confounding effect of collection practices, and environmental conditions during 1986 pollen collection, rather than actual differences between populations. In vitro pollen fumigation with sulfur dioxide had no impact on pollen germination while fumigation with ozone decreased pollen germination percentage but did not change pollen tube length. Most of the variation in pollen germination percentage, and pollen tube length was due to genotype of the pollen parent tree. The phenotypic expression of six isozymes (previously correlated with resistance to air pollutants) in pollen was studied using polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. The pattern of isozyme distribution among pollen phenotypes confirmed results from pollen germination studies. There was a difference between locations but no difference between age groups. None of isozyme phenotypes was correlated with a "resistance" to pollen fumigation with ozone or sulfur dioxide. / Master of Science

This thesis addresses the problem of predicting satellite path rain fade duration statistics for an arbitrary location, frequency, elevation angle and polarization. It summarizes the development of a dynamic stochastic model. From this model a technique is derived for predicting fade duration statistics for one site using measured attenuation data at another site. This technique is evaluated by comparing predicted and experimental results for several locations, frequencies, elevation angles and polarizations. / M.S.

Societies in much of the Horn of Africa are affected by variability in two distinct rainy seasons: the March-May (MAM) “long” rains and the October-December (OND) “short” rains. The region is the driest area of the tropics, while its societies are heavily dependent on the rainfall cycle. Especially worrying are anomalously dry conditions, which, together with other factors, contribute to food insecurity in the region. The recent 2020-2023 5-season drought, associated with the concurrent “triple-dip” La Niña and resulting in tens of millions of people facing “high levels of food insecurity” (cf: IGAD), renewed fears of long-term and possibly anthropogenically-forced drying trends, especially during the MAM long rains. A long-term decline in the long rains beginning in the early 1980s and lasting until the 2010s had indeed been noted in studies examining historical station-based observations, satellite observations, and farmer recollections in the region, though seasonal average rainfall has since partially recovered. Consequently, global climate models (GCMs) are increasingly used to project changes in rainfall characteristics under global warming scenarios and associated impacts on societies, such as agricultural production, groundwater resources, and urban infrastructure, in addition to providing seasonal forecasts used for near-term decision-making. However, GCMs uniformly predict long-term wetting in both seasons despite observed drying trends in the long rains, an “East African Paradox” that complicates the ability of decisionmakers to plan for future rainfall conditions. Previous generations of GCMs have known biases in key dynamics of the regional hydroclimate. Decisionmakers relying on projections of future rainfall in the GHA therefore need to know whether current GCM projections are trustworthy. In other words, can we be confident in future modeled wetting trends in both the long and short rains? This thesis pursues this question in three parts. Chapter 2 seeks to understand the fundamental dynamics affecting the East African seasonal rainfall climatology, which is unique for its latitude in both its aridity and for the dynamical differences between its two rainy seasons. I explain these characteristics through the climatology of moist static stability, estimated as the difference between surface moist static energy h? and midtropospheric saturation moist static energy h*. In areas and at times when this difference, h? − h*, is higher, rainfall is more frequent and more intense. However, even during the rainy seasons, h? − h* < 0 on average and the atmosphere remains largely stable, in line with the region’s aridity. The seasonal cycle of h? − h*, to which the unique seasonal cycles of surface humidity, surface temperature, and midtropospheric temperature all contribute, helps explain the double-peaked nature of the regional hydroclimate. Despite tropospheric temperature being relatively uniform in the tropics, even small changes in h* can have substantial impacts on instability; for example, during the short rains, the annual minimum in regional h* lowers the threshold for convection and allows for instability despite surface humidity anomalies being relatively weak. This h? − h* framework can help identify the drivers of interannual variability in East African rainfall or diagnose the origin of biases in climate model simulations of the regional climate. Chapter 3 applies these results to conduct a process-based model evaluation of the ability of GCMs from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6, the latest GCM generation) to simulate the historical climatology and variability in the East African long and short rains. I find that key biases from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) remain or are worsened, including long rains that are too short and weak and short rains that are too long and strong. Model biases are driven by a complex set of related oceanic and atmospheric factors, including simulations of the Walker Circulation. h? − h* is too high in models, requiring more instability for the same amount of rainfall than in observations. Biased wet short rains in models are connected with Indian Ocean zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients that are too warm in the west and convection that is too deep. Models connect equatorial African winds with the strength of the short rains, though in observations a robust connection is primarily found in the long rains. Model mean state biases in the timing of the western Indian Ocean SST seasonal cycle are associated with certain rainfall timing biases, though both biases may be due to a common source. Simulations driven by historical SSTs (so-called ‘AMIP’ runs) often have larger biases than fully coupled runs. However, models generally respond to teleconnections with the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in particular as expected, maintaining the possibility that trends in the long and short rains may also respond correctly to simulated trends in large-scale dynamics. Finally, Chapter 4 applies these results to directly tackle the East African Paradox by analyzing model trends across the entire observational record to identify under what conditions they fail to reproduce observed trends. Since even with perfect models and observational records model output may differ from observations due to internal variability, I analyze the full spread of CMIP6 output, including Large Ensembles and totalling 598 runs from 47 models. I find that while observed trends are always within the model spread if all runs from all Large Ensembles are considered, the Paradox remains in CMIP6 models, since GCMs substantially underproduce strong drying trends compared to observations. Within the observational record, the Paradox is limited to the time period with the most anomalous drying trends (especially in the years 1980-2010); the recent recovery in rainfall falls comfortably within the range of GCM simulations. The Paradox is not visible in AMIP runs forced with observed historical SSTs, suggesting that biases in simulations of SSTs may be part of the explanation, though clear causality remains elusive. The transition towards more biased trends from SST-forced to coupled runs can also be seen in output from hindcasts from seasonal forecast models, where trends calculated from short-lead-time projections (when the ocean state resembles observations) do not feature the Paradox, while lead times starting with 1.5 months do. More broadly, I show that climate model simulations of observed trends alone cannot be used to reject model predictions of increased (or decreased) precipitation under future forcings. Decision-makers relying on future projections of rainfall trends in East Africa will likely need to consider the possibility of further drying in addition to wetting trends from GCMs.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been steadily increasing from anthropogenic energy production, development and use. Carbon cycling in the terrestrial biosphere, particularly forest ecosystems, has an important role in regulating atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. US West coast forest management policies are being developed to implement forest bioenergy production while reducing risk of catastrophic wildfire. Modeling and understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to changing environmental conditions associated with energy production and use are primary goals of global change science. Coupled carbon-nitrogen ecosystem process models identify and predict important factors that govern long term changes in terrestrial carbon stores or net ecosystem production (NEP). By quantifying and reducing uncertainty in model estimates using existing datasets, this research provides a solid scientific foundation for evaluating carbon dynamics under conditions of future climate change and land management practices at local and regional scales. Through the combined use of field observations, remote sensing data products, and the NCAR CESM/CLM4-CN coupled carbon-climate model, the objectives of this project were to 1) determine the interactive effects of changing environmental factors (i.e. increased CO���, nitrogen deposition, warming) on net carbon uptake in temperate forest ecosystems and 2) predict the net carbon emissions of West Coast forests under future climate scenarios and implementation of bioenergy programs. West Coast forests were found to be a current strong carbon sink after accounting for removals from harvest and fire. Net biome production (NBP) was 26 �� 3 Tg C yr�����, an amount equal to 18% of Washington, Oregon, and California fossil fuel emissions combined. Modeling of future conditions showed increased net primary production (NPP) because of climate and CO��� fertilization, but was eventually limited by nitrogen availability, while heterotrophic respiration (R[subscript h]) continued to increase, leading to little change in net ecosystem production (NEP). After accounting for harvest removals, management strategies which increased harvest compared to business-as-usual (BAU) resulted in decreased NBP. Increased harvest activity for bioenergy did not reduce short- or long-term emissions to the atmosphere regardless of the treatment intensity or product use. By the end of the 21st century, the carbon accumulated in forest regrowth and wood product sinks combined with avoided emissions from fossil fuels and fire were insufficient to offset the carbon lost from harvest removals, decomposition of wood products, associated harvest/transport/manufacturing emissions, and bioenergy combustion emissions. The only scenario that reduced carbon emissions compared to BAU over the 90 year period was a 'No Harvest' scenario where NBP was significantly higher than BAU for most of the simulation period. Current and future changes to baseline conditions that weaken the forest carbon sink may result in no change to emissions in some forest types. / Graduation date: 2013