International trade is one of the leading discussions taken not only in South Africa but worldwide on daily basis. The importance of international trade is that one country can be able to assist the other country to meet its needs. The level of economic growth is important in any country not only in South Africa. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of foreign trade on economic growth in South Africa. The findings of this study will demonstrate the light about positive and negative effects of international trade on economic growth. The empirical analysis is conducted by using a time series data from 199001 - 201302 quarterly obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and Organisation of Economic Co-operation Development (OECD). The study follows a Cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) which contains the following: Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests for stationarity. The model is also taken through the Johansen cointegration test and Vector error correction model (VECM). VECM approach will be followed if cointegration amongst the variables has been established. The findings of the study are that all variables have unit root. The cointegration model emphasizes the long run equilibrium relationship between dependent and independent variables. The empirical results for the Johansen cointegration test reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration and suggest the presence of a long term relationship among all the variables. Empirical investigation reveals that three variables such as inflation rate , export and exchange rates are positively related to GOP while other one variable such as import is negatively related to GOP. The conclusion drawn from this work is that there is a correlation amongst GOP and its independent variable. This dissertation recommends that The South African government must start strengthening the competiveness of export by making sure that it is always balanced with the import. / Thesis (M.Sc. (Economics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2013

The "global" financial crisis (GFC) emerged during 2008 and it was mainly triggered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis (SMC) in the United States of America. The main aims of this thesis is to conduct an econometric analysis of the financial crisis and household savings in South Africa and also to provide a rationale that will facilitate a policy attention on Domestic Resource Mobilisation (DRM) through household savings. The study uses quarterly time series data for the period 199401 to 201102 obtained on-line from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The research is based on the Keynesian saving function, which is a complement of the consumption function. The model will be estimated by using a cointegrating vector autoregressive (CVAR) framework, which allows for endogeneity of the regressors. To check robustness on the cointegration results, the study employs the second empirical technique based on Generalized Impulse Response Function (GIRF) analysis and Variance Decomposition. The regression equation of household savings is expressed as a function of household disposable income, household debt to disposable income, real GOP, interest rate, inflation rate and foreign savings. The variables are tested for the presence of a unit root by the application of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (AOF), Phillips-Perron (PP) Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) tests. The findings of the study are that all variables have unit roots. The cointegration model emphasises the presence of a long run equilibrium relationship between dependent and independent variables. The CVAR reveals the short run of the dynamic household savings model. Taking this into consideration, the study concludes that household debt has a huge influence on the level of household savings. The econometric analysis also revealed that household savings in South Africa actually improved during the period associated with the GFC. It could be postulated that South African households responded to their deteriorating financial situations by reducing their average spending and increasing their savings. Variance decomposition analysis revealed that 'own shocks' constitute the predominant source of variations in household saving therefore household savings can be explained by the disturbances in macroeconomic variables in the study. The study recommends the promotion of household savings and economic growth in order to reduce the dependence of South Africa on foreign savings. DRM is therefore enhanced by a higher level of household savings, which can facilitate higher levels of investment and economic growth. / Thesis (PhD (Economics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2012

The focus of the dissertation is based on the previous research of a relatively new field of environmental governance posed by climate change policy. The implementation of the climate change policy in Europe is then a subject to the discussion over the consistency of that policy with one of the fundamental goals of European integration. That goal is building an internal market as well as ensuring fair competition in such a market. The interaction of these two areas is a key objective of this research work. Given the complexity of the topic, the dissertation, for sake of clarity, is defined more narrowly. On one hand, the thesis provides with an analysis of European climate policy and its main instruments for regulating carbon emissions in the European economy - the European Union emission trading system (EU ETS). On the other hand, the thesis also provides with a description of the European competition policy. The reason is, as mentioned above, that the competition policy is a fundamental policy that guarantees the consistency of the implementation of environmental policies with the building of the internal market. The author analysed in the thesis basic measures implemented within the framework of those with the aim to prove out whether both policies are in mutual accord and whether they do function under the real terms. Based on the results achieved, the author can make following conclusions: The EU ETS mechanism decided for the European Union proved out to be a cost-efficient choice of emission reduction, despite of some temporary weakness that it has. Also, it can be concluded, that the allocation method is the ultimate criterion that determines both the efficiency of the climate action in Europe as well as its compliance with the competition policy. Stemming from that conclusion, there has been some strong evidence given that grandfathering has not been always in line with the state aid rules existing now in the environment protection. Last but not least, the optional use of the Article 10c of the Directive 2003/87/EC seems to be, from what one can say now, fully in line with the state aid rules valid in the European Union. However, further research in this field might be of very use in the future.

Duas ou mais séries não estacionárias são cointegradas se existir uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre elas. Nas últimas décadas, o interesse na literatura sobre o tema cointegração aumentou de maneira expressiva. Os modelos tradicionais supõem que o vetor de cointegração não varia ao longo do tempo. Entretanto, existem evidências na literatura de que esta suposição pode ser considerada muito restritiva. Utilizando o conceito de ondaletas, propomos um modelo de correção de erros vetorial em que é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar ao longo do tempo. Diferente de trabalhos similares, é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar suave ou abruptamente, dependendo da família de ondaletas considerada. Experimentos de Monte Carlo foram utilizados para estudar os quantis e o poder do teste de razão de verossimilhanças entre as hipóteses de cointegração usual e a de cointegração variando com o tempo. Os experimentos sugerem que o teste possui poder contra alternativas que variam ao longo do tempo. Foi demonstrada a capacidade do modelo em lidar satisfatoriamente com séries cointegradas simuladas, que apresentavam mudança de regime para o vetor de cointegração. O modelo foi empregado ainda para testar a validade da hipótese de paridade de poder de compra entre Estados Unidos e doze países da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD): Canadá, Japão e mais dez países europeus. Assim como em trabalhos similares, foram verificadas evidências de cointegração variando com o tempo entre os países. Foram utilizados valores-p bootstrap para verificar a significância da estatística do teste. / Two or more non-stationary time series are cointegrated if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. In recent decades, interest in the literature on the subject of cointegration increased expressively. Traditional models that address this issue assume that the cointegration vector does not vary over time. However, there is evidence in the literature that this assumption can be considered very restrictive. Using the concept of wavelets, we propose a vector error correction model in which is allowed to the cointegration vector vary over time. Unlike similar works, the cointegration vector is allowed to vary smoothly or abruptly, depending on the considered family of wavelets. Monte Carlo experiments were used to study the quantiles and the power of the likelihood ratio test of the hypotheses of usual cointegration versus the time-varying cointegration. The experiments suggest that the test has power against alternatives that vary over time. It was demonstrated the ability of the model to deal satisfactorily with simulated cointegrated series, which presented regime change for the cointegration vector. The model was also used to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis between United States and twelve countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Canada, Japan and ten other European countries. As in similar works, evidence of time-varying cointegration was verified among countries. Bootstrap p-values were used to verify the significance of the likelihood ratio of the test.

Duas ou mais séries não estacionárias são cointegradas se existir uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre elas. Nas últimas décadas, o interesse na literatura sobre o tema cointegração aumentou de maneira expressiva. Os modelos tradicionais supõem que o vetor de cointegração não varia ao longo do tempo. Entretanto, existem evidências na literatura de que esta suposição pode ser considerada muito restritiva. Utilizando o conceito de ondaletas, propomos um modelo de correção de erros vetorial em que é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar ao longo do tempo. Diferente de trabalhos similares, é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar suave ou abruptamente, dependendo da família de ondaletas considerada. Experimentos de Monte Carlo foram utilizados para estudar os quantis e o poder do teste de razão de verossimilhanças entre as hipóteses de cointegração usual e a de cointegração variando com o tempo. Os experimentos sugerem que o teste possui poder contra alternativas que variam ao longo do tempo. Foi demonstrada a capacidade do modelo em lidar satisfatoriamente com séries cointegradas simuladas, que apresentavam mudança de regime para o vetor de cointegração. O modelo foi empregado ainda para testar a validade da hipótese de paridade de poder de compra entre Estados Unidos e doze países da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD): Canadá, Japão e mais dez países europeus. Assim como em trabalhos similares, foram verificadas evidências de cointegração variando com o tempo entre os países. Foram utilizados valores-p bootstrap para verificar a significância da estatística do teste. / Two or more non-stationary time series are cointegrated if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. In recent decades, interest in the literature on the subject of cointegration increased expressively. Traditional models that address this issue assume that the cointegration vector does not vary over time. However, there is evidence in the literature that this assumption can be considered very restrictive. Using the concept of wavelets, we propose a vector error correction model in which is allowed to the cointegration vector vary over time. Unlike similar works, the cointegration vector is allowed to vary smoothly or abruptly, depending on the considered family of wavelets. Monte Carlo experiments were used to study the quantiles and the power of the likelihood ratio test of the hypotheses of usual cointegration versus the time-varying cointegration. The experiments suggest that the test has power against alternatives that vary over time. It was demonstrated the ability of the model to deal satisfactorily with simulated cointegrated series, which presented regime change for the cointegration vector. The model was also used to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis between United States and twelve countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Canada, Japan and ten other European countries. As in similar works, evidence of time-varying cointegration was verified among countries. Bootstrap p-values were used to verify the significance of the likelihood ratio of the test.

Abstract of thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Commerce and Management Dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Fiji : a cointegrated VAR analysis By Shiu Raj Singh The objective of this study is to examine how macroeconomic variables of Fiji inter-relate with aggregate demand and co-determine one another using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. This study did not use a prior theoretical framework but instead used economic justification for selection of variables. It was found that fiscal policy, which is generally used as a stabilisation tool, did not have a positive effect on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the short term. Effects on GDP growth were positive over the long term but not statistically significant. Furthermore, expansionary fiscal policy caused inflationary pressures. Fiji has a fixed exchange rate regime, therefore, it was expected that the focus of monetary policy would be the maintenance of foreign reserves. It was, however, found that monetary expansion in the short term resulted in positive effects on real GDP growth and resulted in inflation. The long term effects of monetary policy on real GDP growth were negative, which are explained by the fixed exchange rate regime, endogenous determination of money supply by the central bank, an unsophisticated financial market and, perhaps, an incomplete transmission of the policy. Both merchandise trade and visitor arrivals growth were found to positively contribute to short term and long term economic growth. Political instability was found not to have significant direct effects on real GDP growth but caused a significant decline in visitor arrivals which then negatively affected economic growth in the short term.