This paper discusses the factors that affect the share price index of Taiwan solar power industry, crude oil prices and the size of the solar manufacturers in Taiwan and Taiwan's market index into the consideration. In addition, considering whether the policies implemented by our government would change the solar industry in Taiwan¡¦s stocks structural .Using the correlation coefficient, the unit root test, Chow test, cointegration test , vector error correction model, impulse response and forecast error variance decomposition to explore their relationship respectively. The study period starts from January 3,2002 until December 30,2011, a total of 2450 daily data for empirical analysis. By Chow test , we find that there is no structural change of solar stock index after the implementation of the domestic policies. Three international crude oil prices and the total share capital of solar manufacturers in Taiwan and the Taiwan solar power industry stocks index has co-integration relationship, means the three international crude oil prices and solar companies total share capital of solar stock index has a long-run equilibrium relationship. By the error correction model of West Texas crude oil price of Brent crude oil prices, the total share capital of the solar companies in Taiwan and Taiwan solar stock index mutual interaction, and the relationship between changes in Taiwan's solar stock price index and Brent crude oil price, West Texas crude oil prices and the total manufacturers of solar energy manufacturers in Taiwan¡¦s share capital are positive, besides, I also found a positive relationship in the impulse response.

Abstract Japan is the second largest economic power in the world. It has a great deal of FDI outflows but few FDI inflows. Therefore, Japan is in the serious situation of ¡§FDI balance of payments deficit.¡¨ In terms of inward FDI stocks as a percentage of GDP and gross fixed capital formation, Japan is the lowest place of G-7. The purpose of this research is focusing on discussing the shortage of FDI inflows and causing factors which lower the desires of investments in Japan by using the simplest way which is based on the actual situation and the limit of the information in Japan. This paper takes the quarterly data of Japan from 1978 to 2005 and four variables (wage index, real exchange rate, trade and FDI inflows). In this research, the unit root test is used to check if the data have the stationarity or not, and then it uses vector autoregression model (VAR) to proceed impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition. According to the result of these two approaches, we can figure out the influences of four variables for each other, and then find out the causing factors which lead Japan to have less FDI inflows. The calculation shows that the reason which leads Japanese wages to increase gradually results not only from real exchange rate, trade and FDI inflows, but also from Japanese labor system (lifetime employment system and payment according to working seniority) and the labor quantities. The causality runs from real exchange rate to trade is greater than vice versa. Trade has a positive impact from the real exchange rate which means that the depreciation can accelerate trade. However, the main factor of hindering FDI inflows is Japanese high wages rather than real exchange rate or trade. Therefore, in order to get rid of the depression which was caused by the bubble economy in 1990s, Japanese government not only opens up the restrictions in policy but also takes the control of the prime costs into the most important consideration.

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In this master thesis, the impact of forward-looking macroeconomic information under IFRS 9 is studied using fictional data from a Swedish mortgage loan portfolio. The study employs a time series analysis approach and employs vector autoregression models to model expected credit loss parameters with multiple incorporated macroeconomic parameters. The models are analyzed using impulse response functions to study the impact of macroeconomic shocks and the results show that the unemployment rate, USD/SEK exchange rate and 3-month interest rates have a significant impact on expected credit losses. / I detta examensarbete studeras effekterna av framåtblickande makroekonomisk information enligt IFRS 9 med fiktiv data baserad på en svensk bolåneportfölj. Studien använder sig av tidsserieanalys och vektorautoregressionsmodeller för att modellera förväntade kreditförlust-parametrar med flera inkorporerade makroekonomiska parametrar. Modellerna analyseras med hjälp av impulsresponsfunktioner för att studera effekterna av makroekonomiska chocker. Resultaten visar att arbetslöshet, USD/SEK växelkurs och 3-månaders räntor har en signifikant inverkan på förväntade kreditförluster.

Seminal papers of Solow (1957) and Swan (1956) stimulated debate among economists on the role of technical change in productivity improvements and for that matter economic growth. The consensus is that technological change accounts for a significant proportion of gross national product (GNP) growth in industrialised economies. In the case of Australia, the aggregate productivity performance was poor in the 1970s and 1980s, but picked up very strongly by the 1990s, and was above the OECD average growth level for the first time in its productivity growth history. However, this high productivity growth rate could not be sustained and Australia started to experience a slowdown in productivity growth since 2000. This study empirically measures the performance of productivity in Australia’s economy for the period 1950-2005, using an econometric approach. Time-series data are used to develop econometric models that capture the dynamic interactions between GDP, fixed capital, labour units, human capital, foreign direct investment (FDI) and information and communication technology (ICT). The Johansen (1988) cointegration techniques are used to establish a long-run steady-state relation between or among economic time series. The econometric analysis pays careful attention to the time-series properties of the data by conducting unit root and conintegration tests for the variables in the system. / This study finds that Australia experienced productivity growth in the 1950s, a slow down in the mid 1960s, a very strong productivity growth in the mid 1990s and another slowdown from 2000 onwards. The study finds evidence that human capital, FDI and ICT are very strong determinants of long-run GDP and productivity growth in Australia. The study finds that the three, four and the five factor models are likely to give better measures of productivity performance in Australia as these models recognise human capital, FDI and ICT and include them as separate factors in the production function, This study finds evidence that the previous studies on the Australia’s productivity puzzle have made a very significant omission by not considering human capital, FDI and ICT as additional exogenous variables and by excluding them from the production function for productivity analysis.

This dissertation consists of three essays wherein tools of financial econometrics are used to study the three aspects of farmland valuation puzzle: short-term boom-bust cycles, overpricing of farmland, and inconclusive effects of direct government payments. Essay I addresses the causes of unexplained short-term boom-bust cycles in farmland values in a dynamic land pricing model (DLPM). The analysis finds that gross return rate of farmland asset decreases as the farmland asset level increases, and that the diminishing return function of farmland asset contributes to the boom-bust cycles in farmland values. Furthermore, it is mathematically proved that land values are potentially unstable under diminishing return functions. We also find that intertemporal elasticity of substitution, risk aversion, and transaction costs are important determinants of farmland asset values. Essay II examines the apparent overpricing of farmland by decomposing the forecast error variance of farmland prices into forward looking and backward looking components. The analysis finds that in the short run, the forward looking Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) portion of the forecast errors are significantly higher in a boom or bust stage than in a stable stage. This shows that the farmland market absorbs economic information in a discriminative manner according to the stability of the market, and the market (and actors therein) responds to new information gradually as suggested by the theory. This helps to explain the overpricing of farmland, but this explanation works primarily in the short run. Finally, essay III investigates the duel effects of direct government payments and climate change on farmland values. This study uses a smooth coefficient semi-parametric panel data model. The analysis finds that land valuation is affected by climate change and government payments, both through discounted revenues and through effects on the risk aversion of land owners. This essay shows that including heterogeneous risk aversion is an efficient way to mitigate the impacts of misspecifications in a DLPM, and that precipitation is a good explanatory variable. In particular, precipitation affects land values in a bimodal manner, indicating that farmland prices could have multiple peaks in precipitation due to adaption through crop selection and technology alternation.

Abstract of thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Commerce and Management Dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Fiji : a cointegrated VAR analysis By Shiu Raj Singh The objective of this study is to examine how macroeconomic variables of Fiji inter-relate with aggregate demand and co-determine one another using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. This study did not use a prior theoretical framework but instead used economic justification for selection of variables. It was found that fiscal policy, which is generally used as a stabilisation tool, did not have a positive effect on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the short term. Effects on GDP growth were positive over the long term but not statistically significant. Furthermore, expansionary fiscal policy caused inflationary pressures. Fiji has a fixed exchange rate regime, therefore, it was expected that the focus of monetary policy would be the maintenance of foreign reserves. It was, however, found that monetary expansion in the short term resulted in positive effects on real GDP growth and resulted in inflation. The long term effects of monetary policy on real GDP growth were negative, which are explained by the fixed exchange rate regime, endogenous determination of money supply by the central bank, an unsophisticated financial market and, perhaps, an incomplete transmission of the policy. Both merchandise trade and visitor arrivals growth were found to positively contribute to short term and long term economic growth. Political instability was found not to have significant direct effects on real GDP growth but caused a significant decline in visitor arrivals which then negatively affected economic growth in the short term.

本文是探討管理浮動匯率時期（1978年第三季至1993年第三季），台灣地區經常帳盈餘發生的原因，同時考慮匯率因素、貨幣市場及商品與勞務市場吸納的情況。利用兩個向量自迴歸模型，分別納入：(1)匯率、利率、經常帳、消費節約及貨幣供給，(2)匯率、利率、經常帳、財政盈餘及貨幣供給，藉由因果關係檢定、預測誤差分解、及衝擊反應，分析經常帳失衡的原因。 　　實証結果指出：台灣地區經常帳盈餘，深受匯率、財政盈餘及消費節約的影響，這個結論與我國低估幣值與出口拓展的政策一致。且經常帳盈餘並不能夠顯著的影響貨幣供給，這個結論與央行沖銷的措施一致，其目的無非是要隔離國外部門影響國內貨幣。足見自由化的匯率政策，不但讓匯率反應出合理的水準值，同時可追求獨立的貨幣政策，配合著獎勵投資、消費及增加公共支出，增加國內吸納，藉以減少鉅幅的經常帳盈餘。