Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-29T11:13:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_7494_DISSERTAÇÃO FINAL MARCOS STOCKL.pdf: 2623028 bytes, checksum: 055c4eb263ffe42b39d092d3297139b3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-15 / O conhecimento da dinâmica dos preços das commodities nos mercados internacionais tem ganhado importância nos últimos anos, haja vista seus potenciais impactos sobre a inflação no Brasil e, por conseguinte, suas implicações para a devida condução da política monetária. Segundo a literatura, países cujas economias dependem das exportações de commodities, como é o caso do Brasil, possuem um menor repasse de uma alta no preço das commodities sobre a inflação. Este menor repasse aos preços ocorre, uma vez que, o aumento do preço das commodities gera uma pressão de apreciação do câmbio local, que por consequência, alivia os efeitos sobre a inflação. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho tem como propósito demonstrar os impactos dos choques nos preços internacionais das commodities na composição da inflação no Brasil, sua relação com o câmbio, bem como, as implicações desta relação para a condução da política monetária do Banco Central. Por meio da estimação de modelos de Vetores Auto Regressivos (VARs), comumente utilizado pelo Banco Central, foi estimado um modelo econométrico para verificar como as variações no Índice CRB (Commodity Research Bureau), principal índice de commodities mundial, e IC-Br (Índice de Commodities Brasil) - índice de commodities utilizado pelo Banco Central do Brasil, são repassados aos preços ao consumidor. Os resultados verificados a seguir mostram que, pela hipótese de choques de oferta, as flutuações dos preços das commodities possuem grande influência sobre a trajetória da inflação ao consumidor no país, embora em determinados períodos este impacto tenha sido amenizado possivelmente pela apreciação cambial. E, com base na literatura teórica e empírica, através dos resultados apresentados, buscar-se-á sugerir uma resposta de política monetária a estas variações de preços, comparativamente às respostas sugeridas pelos principais autores estudados.

When the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) Agricultural Products Division (APD) was formed in the early 1990s after the demise of the Marketing Boards, the support and direct participation of producers on the exchange was core to its long term success. A tremendous amount of energy and cost was invested by SAFEX and brokers to educate and sign up primary producers. Most agribusinesses (excooperatives) also had broking divisions. This campaign was very successful and a large percentage of producers, particular of maize and wheat, opened SAFEX accounts through brokers. It was not unusual for many of them to open more than one account with different brokers. Collectively, they had a very important impact on the market. Fifteen years after the launch of the wheat contract (in 1998), this is no longer the case. Industry sources have it that many, if not most, producers have either closed their accounts, have an inactive account, or have scaled down their trading activities. This leads to the hypothesis that direct participation by producers on the JSE/SAFEX Commodity Division is declining. The questions that arise from this observation are:  Are producers distancing themselves from SAFEX (or the other way around)? or,  Has the industry matured and progressed into a new era? This research had the objectives to:  Determine the estimated percentage of producers that directly traded on SAFEX during the initial years and compare the data to present numbers. Based on the outcome of the primary data collected, to determine if there is indeed a trend.  If correct, to determine what the reasons for this could be. Has there been a shift in hedging practices? Are brokers offering additional services which make it unnecessary for producers to operate directly on the exchange? Wheat producers in the Western Cape were selected as the target group for various reasons, including the province’s geographical isolation, its importance as a wheat production area and the importance of wheat in the gross income generated by producers. The survey firstly established the importance of wheat in the Western Cape grain production areas. No doubt, income derived through wheat production is still very important throughout the Western Cape, but in certain areas it is absolutely crucial. Next, the survey attempted to determine how and when producers ‘price’ (sell) wheat. The survey then aimed to establish what the most important factors are that influence producers’ pricing strategy. Producers ranked growing conditions as the number one factor in taking a pricing decision, followed by production costs. Furthermore, producers do adjust their marketing strategy but there seems to be a difference of opinion as to whether it is on their own accord or on advice of their brokers. The survey not only depended on producer data but cross-referenced with brokers (traders and agribusinesses). Based on overall feedback, the analysis determined vi that on average in the Western Cape 10 – 20% of wheat producers had SAFEX accounts, while in selected areas it was as high as 37 – 50%. It was also important to determine to what extent SAFEX trading activity had decreased, if at all. This question only applied to those respondents that said they did have a SAFEX account and their activities had decreased. The answer revealed that 91% of respondents had stopped trading altogether. Having now established that a fairly large number of producers had accounts on which most had ceased their activities, the question is why. Cash flow requirements are the single biggest reason why producers have reduced (or completely stopped) their participation on SAFEX. The second reason was that a producer could achieve the same benefits and more through the services offered by the grain traders and agribusinesses, compared to trading directly on SAFEX. It should not be forgotten that the trader could only offer these service if he or she does a deal, back-to-back, on SAFEX. This is part of the reason why all traders and agribusinesses have a SAFEX account. The survey concluded with what might be singled out as one of the most important questions (given what had been determined up to this point): Do producers believe brokers offer all of the marketing options that could be achieved by trading direct on SAFEX? With the benefit of already having analysed the response to the earlier questions, the answer might have been expected. However, the response was overwhelming: 97% of respondents said that brokers offer all of the marketing options they were interested in. It could therefore be said that the decline in direct SAFEX participation by Cape wheat producers is the direct result of the all-inclusive services offered by traders and agribusinesses. Producers sign a forward contract with their brokers while the brokers would offset their risk on SAFEX. An element of caution, however, needs to be expressed. Given the importance of wheat in the Western Cape, and particularly in the Swartland, producers should not relinquish their responsibility to acquire or maintain a minimum amount of knowledge on the functioning of SAFEX. Irrespective of whether producers deal directly on SAFEX or through their brokers, knowledge now and in the future will hold the key to their marketing performance and should not be replaced by using brokers. / Dissertation (MSc Agric)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2014 / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

This thesis is focused on Managed Futures, which is one of alternative investment instruments. Even though its popularity in developed countries rises, it is a rarity in Czech financial market. The main intent is to clarify specifications, historical roots, legal framework and other characteristic aspects. Part of the work will be devoted to the analysis of performance, risk, correlation with other investments and the possibility of inclusion in a portfolio of experienced Czech investor.

The principal aim of the thesis is to describe the functioning of commodity markets, especially on the example of oil, to analyze the specifics of selected commodity companies, to determine the influence of these characteristics on the valuation of these selected commodities and to identify the possibility of usage of the methods for valuation of other commodity companies.

The main focus of this thesis is gold as an investment option among commodity asset class. The goal is to present the facts that rate gold as an investing instrument and create recommendations for the standard 'middle-class' investors setting up their portfolio. The first chapter discusses the pillars determining the market value of gold, the pros and cons of investing into gold, and specific forms of how investments into gold can be done. The second chapter analyzes how gold is ranked in the awareness of ordinary people. It also describes the phases in the process of creating investment portfolio. In the last chapter, there is comparison of investment into gold versus other main commodities and how they compete.

The aim of this thesis is to assess the current situation and propose appropriate marketing management of joint-stock company Moravian ceramic factories with business activities in the field of metallurgy and foundry.

This thesis presents three distinct chapters that look at different challenges faced by advanced and emerging market economies. Given the issues explored in these chapters, I contribute to several strands of economic literature. Yet, each chapter is motivated by its policy relevance and is embedded in the issues advanced and emerging market countries face. Chapter 1 explores the impact of income inequality on domestic investment in resource-rich countries. Income inequality may affect investment through different mechanisms. For instance, it could distort incentives for domestic investment; high-income inequality may discourage investment in public goods since low-income non-investors may benefit more from the returns on investment. As a result, countries with higher income inequality are expected to contribute less to their domestic investment. To investigate the relationship between income inequality and domestic investment, I use the data for 57 resource-rich countries from 1982-2015. Due to endogenous relationships among variables, I use generalized method-of moments estimators that employ lagged regressors as instruments in the estimation. Using a variety of income inequality measures, I find a negative and significant relationship between these two economic indicators: income inequality and domestic investment. This result could help resource-rich countries achieve higher growth from their resource endowments. The second chapter studies the extent to which worldwide shocks can explain country-specific inflation fluctuations. My benchmark model proxy world shocks with shocks to commodity prices. First, using a factor model of commodity prices, I extract three leading factors characterizing their co-movement. Then, I use the commodity price factors in a structural vector autoregressive model to investigate the fraction of inflation fluctuations that commodity price shocks can explain. My estimation is based on the data for 67 advanced and emerging market economies from 1970-2014. Furthermore, I examine the impact of world shocks on inflation through additional mechanisms, such as changes in the world interest rate and the global economic activity index. Compared to the previous literature, I find the increased importance of world shocks in explaining country-specific inflation fluctuations. This result can guide policymakers in setting the relevant monetary policy to control or prevent inflationary pressures in an economy. Finally, the third chapter studies whether commodity price shocks matter for estimating the output gap. First, I apply the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition method and calculate the share explained by world shocks in the variance decomposition of the output gap. In my analysis, world shocks affect the output gap through commodity price indices and global economic factors. My study includes five advanced and ten emerging market economies from 1980-2018. Then, I investigate whether commodity price shocks can improve the accuracy of this estimation. To do this, I exclude commodity price indices from my model to estimate the output gap. Finally, I use output gaps estimated with and without commodity price indices in an inflation forecasting model to compare the forecast errors of predicted inflation. Using a forecast error test, I find that the estimated output gap using commodity price indices would provide better results in forecasting inflation than other output measures.

The U.S. tung oil industry began as a government experiment in plant diversification but businessmen mistakenly interpreted this interest as an endorsement of domestic production and began growing tung trees in the Gulf South states of Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. The new crop quickly caught the attention of paint, varnish, and ink companies in the northern and Midwestern states and created a buzz among chemurgists like Henry Ford and other industrialists who eagerly expanded tung acreage. With the erection of the first crushing mill in 1928, the tung oil industry began but it did not acquire any semblance of maturity until World War II. The war thrust the nascent tung oil industry into strategic status. Used as a varnish on military airplanes and naval vessels, a brake lining, a machinery lubricant, a liner for tin cans, and as electrical insulation, demand exceeded supply. Traditional consumers had such a difficult time purchasing tung oil during the war that they turned to other oilseeds or new synthetic oils. The war both aided and crippled tung oil by highlighting its chemurgic uses and deterring consumers given that shortages encouraged the quest for alternatives. Despite a barrage of synthetic competitors and imports, domestic tung growers continued production in the hopes that the discovery of new industrial markets would increase demand and attract government support in the form of parity, tariffs, and quotas. Between 1949 and 1969, a series of agricultural policies granted protection but from the outset federal support proved reluctant and tenuous because production remained miniscule, quotas threatened to heighten diplomatic tensions, and wealthy, part-time growers comprised the bulk of parity recipients. Hurricane Camille has often received credit for bringing a swift end to the industry but imports, competitive oilseeds, synthetics, and freezes had delivered powerful blows to the extent that many farmers stopped growing tung long before 1969. Indeed, Camille proved nothing more than a death knell to a waning industry that had become dependent on government largesse.

A wholesale beef futures contract has been suggested as a possible solution to recent problems in live cattle futures. However, it is uncertain whether the new futures contract will outperform the existing contract. In this research, I develop methods to derive a price series that is theoretically sound for a hypothetical futures contract. This allows for the evaluation of this hypothetical wholesale beef futures contract. I test these methods for validity using futures markets for hogs and find that they are similar in accuracy to a futures valuation model for existing futures. Then I derive a price series for this hypothetical wholesale beef futures contract and evaluate its effectiveness as a risk management tool.

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