Because of the high cost and the irreversibility of the big investment company decision maker often choose to defer the investment until the uncertainty gets clear. That is a management flexibility to decrease the risky. This article analyze that when company faces two competing technology that one have competing advantage comparing with the other under an uncertainty situation how does the company decide when and which to adopt. We develop a continuous-time stochastic model that aids in determination of optimal timing for adoption within the framework of real options theory. We propose that the competing situation between two incompatible technologies follows the general Wiener Process. When company chose to defer the investment we use the expectations of the decision maker and the competing situation between two technologies to decide the optimal investment timing. The result of this thesis suggests that a technology adopter should defer its investment until one technology¡¦s probability to win out in the market place and achieve critical mass reaches a critical threshold. This research only provides a way to show the decision maker when and which to adopt but not guarantee that the technology being chose will dominate the market in the future.

The middle period of the 20th century, the births of electronic calculator and information transmission technology, let the civilized development course be faster. Under the situation in the considerable and significant growth of product-producing and cultural dissemination , the compatibility of products is shaped into the top theme that sought together by customers and manufacturers .The growth of the diverse products in markets gives a chance of option to the users in markets .This research shows that it will only be after undergoing the marketable course of competition certainly when every manufacturer introduces the products , could determines that whether it's a market that monopolize or a situation that is formed by the incompatibility of every product from each manufacturer. Based this background, The research was done by using language Visual Basic to write a function about marketing share¡Buser preference ¡Btechnology and strategy to confer when ¡Bwhy and how the competing technologies will become Monopoly or have marketing shares with each other in a long period. From the conclusion of this research, we know what will the firms do under the supposition of this research and there is the description about the limit in this research and the feasibility study in the future.