This study examines the tone of management disclosures and their impact on capital markets. In particular, I examine the positive and negative tone, as defined by the Harvard IV-4 Dictionary, during conference calls and the impact on analyst accuracy, dispersion of analysts' estimates, cumulative abnormal returns, abnormal trading volumes, and the number of days after the end of the quarter. Results indicate that pessimism is significantly related to decreased analyst accuracy. A one percent increase in the pessimism of a conference call results in a decrease in analyst accuracy by approximately 10%. In addition, an increase in pessimism is associated with an increase in the dispersion of analysts' estimates. Pessimism is related to negative abnormal returns in the 30 days after the end of the conference call and also to increased trading volume in the three days after the conference call. A one percent increase in the pessimism of a conference call is related to a negative abnormal return of approximately .4%. These findings are consistent with the theory that the positive and negative tone of a conference call provides incremental information to the capital markets. I am unable to find significant results for an increase in the number of days between the end of the quarter and the conference call date. These results are robust to using a more financially oriented dictionary created by Loughran and McDonald (2011) / Ph. D.

L'objectif principal de cette thèse est de concevoir un système impliquant un feedback tactile facilitant l’organisation du tour de parole dans le contexte de la communication verbale à distance et à plusieurs. Ces situations impliquant des technologies numériques sont actuellement décrites comme étant des "conferences call". Elles relèvent également du Computer Supported Collaborative Work (CSCW) lorsqu'elles impliquent une tâche collaborative. Curieusement, ces situations n'ont été l'objet que de très peu d'études en dépit des problèmes qu'elles suscitent et l'évolution de ces technologies s'est faite au profit d'un enrichissement par la vidéo. Cette thèse propose une autre forme d'enrichissement par un retour tactile permettant de dépasser l'une des principales difficultés de la communication verbale à distance à savoir le contrôle du tour de parole. Deux modalités de cet enrichissement ont été étudiés : la redondance et la substitution. Comme redondance avec le feedback visuel, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que la modalité tactile favorise l'alternance du tour de parole et augmente l'expression d'intentions non verbales à l'image des situations de face à face. Comme substitution au visuel, l'hypothèse a été de poser que le tactile produit un avantage en cela qu'il fluidifie le tour de parole. Le système conçu dans cette recherche montre, au moyen de trois expériences, que l'échange verbal à distance et sa distribution dans le cadre d'une tâche de prise de décision collective peut être efficient avec un enrichissement tactile et donner lieu à une auto-régulation du tour de parole. / Our thesis aim was to design a system based on tactile modality to organize a synchronous, multi-user remote verbal communication to facilitate better turn-taking. The remote communication we studied is actually called the ‘conference call’, and relies on computer technology. A conference call is a form of CSCW, and it is thus a collaborative task. As conference calls have rarely been studied in previous research, a system designed to optimize this kind of work is of great value. Tactile modality is the basic element of the design and its impact is also studied in our thesis. As a modality of redundancy, tactile feedback accelerates the alternation of turn-taking. Moreover, it augments the intention of non-verbal exchanges, which accounts for most of the communication in face-to-face situations. As a modality of substitution, tactile modality shows a distinct advantage in making the turn-taking transfer smoother compared to visual modality. Finally, a conference call for a decision-making task under a simple turn-taking allocation system based on tactile modality provides evidence that this designed system’s controlled conference call has good efficiency and good distribution of the talking length of turn-taking.

本篇研究試圖探討半導體產業供應鏈上游的IC設計業者召開法人說明會後，基於我國半導體產業供應鏈緊密連結之特性，同屬半導體供應鏈的其他中、下游製造和封測廠之機構投資人的交易行為是否將受到IC設計業者宣告之法人說明會資訊影響，亦即證明法人說明會資訊在半導體供應鏈中是否具有垂直資訊移轉效果。實證結果發現在法人說明會召開訊息首次見報日時，供應鏈上游公司之法人說明會訊息確實會影響其中、下游公司之機構投資人的持股變化，於宣告好(壞)消息時買進(賣出)，顯示機構投資人藉由其專業團隊和私有資訊能早一般大眾提前調整其交易策略，而此資訊移轉效果也會隨著公司在供應鏈上之距離而逐漸稀釋。此外，結果亦顯示外資由於地緣限制，相較於投信和自營商更會倚賴法人說明會宣告之資訊調整其持股策略，於宣告好(壞)消息時買進(賣出)。 / This research examine the conference call which hold by the IC design companies will transfer useful information to the institutional investors of IC manufacturing and packaging companies in the supply chain downstream. I am interested in if there is a vertical information transfer in the semi-conduct industry. The empirical results show that the conference call information is significantly influence the holding percentage of the institutional investors of the downstream supply chain companies after the information of conference call first reported in the newspapers. The institutional investors will increase the holding percentage after the good news released and vice versa. It is showed that the institutional investors can gather more information before the conference call and adjust their invest strategy in advance. Furthermore, this vertical information transfer effect will dilute by degrees as distance increases. Lastly, the result also shows that the foreign institutional investors more rely on the information released from the conference call to adjust their invest strategy than native institutional investors.

本研究主要探討台灣半導體產業供應鏈上游公司召開法人說明會是否會影響中下游公司之股價。本研究將法人說明會公布之資訊區分為財務資訊及非財務資訊，除探討財務資訊對供應鏈中、下游公司股價是否具影響效果外，亦探討財務及非財務的法人說明會資訊是否具有增額效果。實證結果顯示財務資訊在法人說明會召開前後一天與累積異常報酬呈現顯著正向關係，但非財務資訊卻呈現顯著反向關係，顯示非財務資訊會修正財務資訊所造成之效果。另外，資訊於供應鏈中移轉之距離越長，則移轉效果會越小，但若單純為好消息或壞消息，則移轉效果將增強。 / This research examines the influence of conference call information on the stock price of supply chain partners. The semi-conductor industries in Taiwan were used in this paper to examine the issue. I examined two kinds of information disclosed from conference calls: financial information and non-financial information. I first examined the information contained in conference calls for any effects on supply chain partners. Furthermore, I also examined to see if the non-financial information contains any additional effects to the supply chain partners. The empirical results show that the accumulated abnormal return of the supply chain partners is significantly positive related to the financial information around the conference call date. The accumulated abnormal return of the supply chain partners is significantly negative related to the non-financial information around the conference call date. The results show that both financial and non-financial information would influence the accumulated abnormal return of supply chain partners. The non-financial information contains additional information that revises the influence of the financial information.