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Political risk in South Africa for Taiwanese investors18 March 2015 (has links)
M.A. / Please refer to full text to view abstract
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Measuring political risk as risks to foreign investment : a computer-assisted model for analysing and managing political riskBrink, Charlotte H. 12 1900 (has links)
Thesis (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the title suggests, the major challenge that this study faces is to set out and design a model for
analysing and enabling the management of political risk as investment risk - a model that is both sensitive
to and reflective of the comprehensive business and investment climate in a country, not only credit or
country risk, or only pure political risk in its narrowest definition.
In reading about past and more recent research in the field of political risk analysis, it becomes clear that
many authors begin by noting the diversity and the discrepancies of the existing definitions of political
risk, but evidence in political risk insurance shows that the major perceived political risks that investors
insure their interests against seem to be confiscation, expropriation and nationalisation. In the light of this
study's findings though, a case can be put forward for urging that the conceptualisation of political risk be
extended to further include any or all of the micro political risk factors and their indicators that have been
identified to ensure that political events do not impact negatively on a foreign company's profitability.
Foreign investors put assets at risk to achieve their objectives and the assessment of these risks, including
political risks, is the key to successful operations. Opportunities and risks are often two sides of the same
coin and political risk comprises a large part of the environmental forces in terms of the management
challenges a Multinational Company (MNC) faces in any investment climate.
A firm's foreign investment strategy deals with the positioning of the organisation in an uncertain host
country environment and investment climate. This study attempts to explain how a firm's political risk
exposure, which refers to the sensitivity of a firm's projected profitability and operationability in a host
country to changes in the investment climate, could be managed and reduced. It is hoped that political
risk analysis and management can assist foreign operations in managing the risks that might have
otherwise proven to be destructive to profitability and operationability.
It is irresponsible to present a potential investor with a risk assessment that does not incorporate political
risk factors and their indicators, let alone environmental, societal and socio-economic risk factor
indicators. Ultimately any business climate, regardless of the country being studied, is underwritten by a
political system, political climate, political culture and business culture of the system in which foreign
business wishes to operate profitably.
What is often labelled as unnecessary and irrelevant detail in risk analysis often results in a lack of using
micro risk factors and their indicators and an underestimation of the importance of such micro risk
indicators. Hopefully this study takes up the challenge of showing that political risk can be managed and
political risk analysis can be made more precise - that it is possible to measure and manage political risk. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die titel van hierdie studie voorstel is een van die grootste uitdagings die ontwerp van 'n model vir
die analise van politieke risiko as beleggingsrisiko - 'n model wat ter selfde tyd sensitief is vir en
weerspieëlend van 'n land se algemeen omvattende besigheids- en beleggingsklimaat, en nie slegs suiwer
politieke risiko in die nouste sin van die woord nie.
'n Literatuurstudie van meer onlangse navorsing, asook navorsing wat in die verlede gedoen is oor
politieke risiko en die analise daarvan, dui daarop dat baie outeurs melding maak van die diversiteit en
teenstrydighede in die bestaande definisies van politieke risiko. Die teenwoordigheid van versekering
teen politieke risiko wys egter daarop dat die primêre politieke risiko's waarteen beleggers hulle belange
verseker meesal nasionalisering en onteiening is, asook die beslaglegging op beleggings. Teen die
agtergrond van hierdie studie se bevindinge, kan daar egter 'n saak uitgemaak word vir die verbreeding
van die konseptualisering van politieke risiko om enige of alle van die mikro-politieke risiko
faktorindikatore wat in hierdie studie identifiseer word in te sluit, om sodoende te verseker dat die
negatiewe gevolge wat politieke gebeure moontlik mag inhou vir 'n buitelandse maatskappy se belange,
sover moontlik beperk word.
Buitelandse beleggers stel bates bloot aan risiko's ten einde voorafgestelde doelwitte te bereik en die
assessering van hierdie risiko's, insluitende politieke risiko's, is 'n groot bydraende' faktor tot die
suksesvolle bedryf van buitelandse beleggings. Geleenthede en risiko's is dikwels twee kante van
diesIefde muntstuk en politieke risiko maak 'n groot deel uit van die uitdagende beleggingsomgewing
waarin die bestuur van 'n multinasionale korporasie (MNK) daagliks moet funksioneer.
'n Maatskappy se buitelandse beleggingstrategie handel met die posisionering van die organisasie in die
onvoorspelbare beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land. Hierdie studie poog ook om te verduidelik hoe
die mate waarin 'n firma blootgestel word aan politieke risiko, met ander woorde die sensitiwiteit van 'n
firma se voorgenome winsgewendheid en bedryf teenoor veranderinge in die beleggingsklimaat van 'n
vreemde land, bestuur en verminder kan word. Daar word gehoop dat politieke risiko analise en die
bestuur daarvan 'n bydra kan lewer tot buitelandse besighede se bestuur van hierdie risiko's, wat
andersins 'n vemietgende impak kan hê op die winsgewendheid van buitelandse bedrywighede.
Dit is onverantwoordelik om aan 'n buitelandse belegger 'n risiko analise voor te lê wat nie politieke
risiko faktore en die daarmee gepaardgaande indikatore insluit nie. Die studie argumenteer verder dat
faktorindikatore wat die fisiese omgewing, sosiale asook sosio-ekonomiese faktore aanspreek ook in 'n
risiko analise ingesluit moet word. Oplaas is enige besigheidsklimaat, nieteenstaande die land wat
bestudeer word, onderskryf deur 'n politieke stelsel, politieke klimaat, politieke kultuur en
besigheidskultuur van die stelsel waarin die buitelandse besigheid winsgewende resultate as doelwit het.
Wat dikwels beskou word as onnodige en irrelevante detail in risiko analise lei dikwels tot 'n gebrek aan die insluiting van mikro-risiko faktore en hulle indikatore weens 'n onderskatting van die noodsaaklikheid
daarvan om juis sulke mikro-risiko faktorindikatore in 'n risiko analise in te bou. Hierdie studie aanvaar
hopelik die uitdaging om te wys dat politieke risiko tog bestuur kan word en dat politieke risiko analise
tog meer eksak gemaak kan word - dat dit wel moontlik is om politieke risiko te meet en bestuur.
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Foreign direct investment and political risks in South Africa and Nigeria : a comparative analysisPekeur, Juanita 04 1900 (has links)
Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Instability in foreign political and social systems, changing power structures in
international relations, and growing demands by host countries for a greater control
over the operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have all led to the necessity
of an improved way in which to determine foreign investment opportunities. Not
surprisingly therefore, political risk assessment has become one of the fastest growing
fields of study. Being concerned with the identification, analysis, management, and
reduction of socio-political risks for foreign investors. The focus of this study is that
of political risk analysis and the way in which it impacts on investor perception and
consequently determines levels of foreign direct investment received by a particular
country.
Numerous definitions for the term "political risk" exist. Consequently, no specific
definition is regarded as being completely correct since consensus still needs to be
reached. One of the definitions used within this study is that political risk analysis is
the analysis of the possibility that factors caused or influenced by governmental
political decisions or other unforeseen events in a country will affect business
climates in such a way that investors will lose money or not make as much profit as
they expected when the initial decision to invest was made. These factors can be of
internal (from inside the host country) or external origin, and can pose macro or micro
risks. Foreign Direct Investment in brief is an investment involving a long-term
relationship and reflecting a lasting interest and control of a resident entity in one
economy in an enterprise resident in an economy other than that of the foreign direct
investor.
This study is a comparative between South Africa and Nigeria. South Africa and
Nigeria share many similarities, they are both resource based, African countries. They
are both fairly recent democracies, although some may contest the status of Nigeria as
being a democracy. They are also both heterogeneous states, both consisting of
various ethnic groups. Nigeria offers investors a low-cost labour pool, abundant natural resources, and a
large domestic market. However, Nigeria suffers from an inadequate and poorly
maintained infrastructure, confusing and inconsistent regulations, endemic corruption,
and a lack of confidence in the rule of law. Despite all of this, Nigeria alone accounts
for a quarter of FDI flows to Africa. In comparison, South Africa's FDI potential has
not been fully exploited. This study will discuss the possible reasons why this is the
case.
The labour market in both countries and the challenges they face are discussed in
depth within this study. Due to the fact that aside from investment, the economic
growth within a country is dependent on a variety of factors, the backbone of which is
the labour market.
In determining levels of risk within both South Africa and Nigeria, this study made
use of a political risk model. Although the intention has been to be as accurate and as
thorough as possible, it should be noted that as yet, no generalised systematic method
of conducting political risk assessment exists. Results, although extensively
substantiated, remains the interpretation of the researcher and as such remains open to
debate. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Onstabiliteit in buitelandse politieke en sosiale stelsels, veranderende mag strukture in
internasionale betrekkinge, en die groeiende behoeftes van gasheer lande om meer
beheer uit te oefen oor die funksioneering van buitelandse maatskappye het alles gelei
na die noodsaaklikheid van 'n beter manier om buitelandse investering te bepaal. Dus
is dit nie verbasend dat politieke risiko analise deesdae een van die vinnigste
ontwikkelende onderwerpe is wat bestudeer word nie. Politieke risiko analise is
belangrik vir die identifikasie, analise, bestuur en vermindering van sosio-politieke
risiko vir buitelandse investering. Hierdie studie fokus op die impak wat politieke
risiko' analise het met betrekking tot belegger waarneming en hoe dit dan ook
moontlik die bedrag van buitelandse investering wat 'n land ontvang, kan bepaal.
Daar is verskeie definisies wat die term "politieke risiko" beskryf en gevolglik moet
konsensus nog bereik word oor 'n "korrekte" een. Een van die definisies wat in hierdie
studie gebruik word is dat politieke risiko die analise is van die moontlikheid dat
sekere faktore wat veroorsaak is of wat beïnvloed is deur die regering se politieke
besluite, asook ander onvoorspelbare gebeurtenise in 'n land wat die investerings
klimaat so kan beïnvloed dat die buitelandse beleggers moontlik geld kan verloor of
miskien nie die verwagte winste behaal wat hulle aanvanklik gereken het, sou behaal
nie. Hierdie faktore kan of intern (binne die gasheer land) of ekstern van aard wees en
kan dus makro of mikro risiko behels. Direkte buitelandse investering in 'n land is 'n
belegging wat In lang termyn verhouding insluit en dit reflekteer ook 'n blywende
belangstelling en beheer van 'n buitelandse maatskappy in 'n gasheer land in.
Hierdie studie is 'n vergelykende studie tussen Suid-Afrika en Nigerië. Suid-Afrika en
Nigerië deel baie ooreenkomste. Beide lande is ryk aan natuurlike bronne en beide is
nog "jong" demokratiese lande. Sommige mense stem nie saam dat Nigerië wel aan al
die vereistes van 'n demokrasie voldoen nie. Suid-Afrika en Nigerië is ook heterogene
state wat uit verskeie etniese groepe bestaan. Nigerië bied vir die buitelandse belegger billike arbeid, oorvloedige natuurlike
bronne, asook In groot binnelandse mark. Ten spyte hiervan, moet dit ook in ag
geneem word dat Nigerië onder onvoldoende en In swak instandhouding van
infrastruktuur, wispelturige regulasies, korrupsie en ook In swak regsisteem ly. Ten
spyte van al hierdie faktore, ontvang Nigerië In kwart van alle buitelandse investering
in Afrika. Suid-Afrika se buitelandse investerings potensiaal in vergelyking met ander
lande moet nog ontwikkel word. Hierdie studie sal die moontlike redes vir Suid
Afrika se oneksploiteerbare buitelandse investerings potensiaal bespreek.
Die arbeidsmark en die uitdagings wat gestel word het In groot invloed op buitelandse
investering. Hierdie studie het ten doelom beide lande se arbeidsmark te bespreek en
te vergelyk met betrekking tot buitelandse investering.
Om die moontlike risiko in altwee lande te bepaal, maak hierdie studie gebruik van In
politieke risiko analise model. Die navorser het gepoog om so deeglik en akkuraat as
moontlik te wees. Dit moet ook in ag geneem word dat daar nog geen veralgemeende
metode van politieke risiko analise ontwikkel is nie.
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