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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Southern Illinois University at Carbondale, 1999. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 128-134).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2001. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 185-190).

This dissertation consists of three chapters on development economics. The first two chapters are in the area of international macroeconomics. The third chapter is in an area that is the intersection of macroeconomics and population economics. The first chapter studies currency substitution in an environment where agents' inflation tax evasive demand for foreign money is balanced by the concern for the possibility that the government may impose economy-wide capital controls under which foreign currency transactions are costly. We contrast implications of constant beliefs regarding capital controls with those obtained under endogenous beliefs. With endogenous beliefs, agents expect a greater likelihood of capital controls as economy-wide currency substitution rises. Our results show a persistent demand for foreign money under endogenous beliefs despite efforts by the government to reduce inflation. The second chapter is a theoretical study of currency substitution in an overlapping-generations economy. We focus on the role of beliefs in determining the relative demands for domestic and foreign money. Domestic money suffers from a lack of confidence leading agents to demand foreign money as an alternate store-of-value. We study equilibria in which the level of confidence in domestic money evolves as a function of expected future aggregate domestic money demand: agents increase their demand for domestic money only if aggregate economy-wide real domestic money demand is expected to rise. The third chapter is a study of intertemporal substitution and fertility dynamics. The demographic experience of Iran after the revolution poses an interesting puzzle. A brief increase in period fertility after the 1979 revolution interrupted a trend of decline that had started in the 1950s. The rise in fertility, however, appears to have lasted only a few years: in the late 1980s fertility decline resumed its course at an even faster pace. We present evidence that suggests that the changes in Iranian fertility since the revolution were in part a birth timing phenomenon. The revolution may well have been a transient economic shock which temporarily depressed the relative "price" of children and caused adjustment in fertility patterns which, at least in an ex post sense, is suggestive of intertemporal substitution. / Ph. D.

Demonetization is an economic tool used to reduce the size of an underground economy. Though studies on the effectiveness of demonetization have increased over the past 50 years, there is little literature on the ineffectiveness of demonetization and subsequent factors that could explain a lack of change, or an increase, in illegal activity. This paper examines past cases of demonetization to determine the effectiveness of demonetization, and investigates the incentive for foreign currency substitution as a mechanism for criminals to circumvent regulatory scrutiny. Major findings of this paper include a positive but statistically insignificant correlation between demonetization and growth in the shadow economy, and a statistically significant positive relationship between exchange rate appreciation and demonetization. Finally, this paper applies these findings to test the “Modi effect” of Indian Rupee (INR) demonetization.

Recent research has shown that money substitutes - whether in the form of foreign currency or of more exotic instruments such as privately-issued moneys - are common in developing and transition countries, and have important consequences for macroeconomic and financial sector policy. The aim of this thesis is to advance our theoretical and empirical understanding of the determinants of money substitution in developing and transition economies. We begin in Chapter 1 by addressing the need for a general theoretical framework for the analysis of money substitutes. Reviewing both the classical and the modern theoretical literature on money, we conclude that the Credit theory of money - an ancient but until recently neglected theory which conceives of money as a unilateral financial contract between its issuer and its bearer - is a useful framework for such analysis. In Chapter 2, we undertake an empirical analysis of non-cash settlements (NCS) in Croatia. Using time series econometric analysis, we demonstrate that the instruments used to settle NCS are at least in part substitutes for the national currency, created endogenously by the enterprise sector in response to constraints on their participation in the official monetary and banking system. We turn to the most important form of money substitute in developing and transition countries - foreign currency - in Chapter 3, where we present a new review of the theoretical and empirical literature on dollarisation. In particular, we track the evolution of theoretical models of dollarisation in response to the increasing empirical importance of financial dollarisation relative to currency substitution. In Chapter 4 we undertake an empirical study of the determinants of deposit dollarisation in the two transition economies of Estonia and Lithuania by building and interpreting dynamic, multiple equation, econometric models. We find that a simple, portfolio theoretic account of the dollarisation process furnishes a good explanation, but also that data availability limits the level of analytical detail that this approach can attain.

If there is currency substitution, the central bank will lose independence in monetary policy even if the flexible exchange rate system is adopted. In this paper, we investigate the existence of currency substitution between Taiwan and the United States in an open economy during the period of the managed floating exchange rate system, and examine the role of the factor influencing monetary policy and domestic money demand function derived from a small-country portfolio balance approach. To take account of currency substitution, we use quarterly data over 1981-2005 period on the demand for money and include data on the real exchange rate in addition to real income, domestic nominal interest rate and foreign nominal interest rate. The methodology is based on an application of the Johansen and Juselius¡]1990¡^cointegration technique. Also use error correction model to discuss short-run dynamic adjustment processes of these variables. Application of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and Phillips-Perron test indeed reveal that all variables are integrated of order one. The result from the Johansen¡¦s maximum likelihood mehtod reveal that there is only one cointegrating vector among the variables. This implies that there is long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. There is clear evidence that demand for money is affected not only by changes in domestic variables such as real income, domestic nominal interest rate but also by fluctuations in foreign nominal interest rate and real exchange rate. And the coefficiect of the real exchange rate is negative and statistically significant. That means currency substitution is significant factor in the domestic money demand equation and currency substitution indeed exists in Taiwan. This paper successfully provides a consistent result, currency substitution indeed exists in Taiwan. Therefore, to have an effective monetary policy, the monetary authorities should take into account the international factors.

This study aims to investigate currency substitution and financial dollarization in Turkey. The extend of dollarization in Turkey appears to be very high according to both the conventional currency substitution and the recently developed financial dollarization measures. This has serious policy implications as a source of financial fragility through currency/maturity mismatches and balance sheet effects. The empirical part of this study contained an investigation of the long run relationships between the variables in a system containing currency substitution ratio, expected exchange rate change and rates of return on domestic and foreign currency denominated assets. The results of the Johansen cointegration analysis based on quarterly data for the 1987-2004 period appeared not to be strongly supporting the General Portfolio Balance Model (GPBM). The theoretical part of this study suggests that the GPBM can be reduced to the Sequential Portfolio Balance Model (SPBM) under the uncovered interest parity (UIP) hypothesis. Consequently, the GPBM may be misleading under UIP. The Johansen cointegration results suggested the validity of the UIP for the Turkish data. The estimation of the SPBM suggested that there is a long-run relationship between currency substitution and expected exchange rate change in Turkey. The elasticity of currency substitution appeared to be high but consistent with those estimated for other high inflation developing countries. The results further supported the presence of a ratchet/hysteresis effect proxied by a trend variable. All these results are consistent with the argument that currency substitution and financial dollarization are important especially in high inflation countries.

This study investigates the determinants and effects of currency and asset substitution in Turkey using quarterly data from 1987:1 to 2002:4. The empirical results from the application of Johansen procedure to a four-variable system containing currency-asset substitution proxy (M2Y/M2)), real income, real exchange rate, and ratchet effect proxy (past peak values of the depreciation of the real exchange rate) suggest the presence of a single cointegration vector among the variables. The results further suggest the endogeneity of the degree of currency substitution for the parameters of the cointegration vector. According to the theory consistent and data-acceptable long-run relationship between the variables, there is a strong ratchet (hysteresis) effect in currency-asset substitution in Turkey. The study contains also the policy implications of both currency substitution and the ratchet effect arising from real exchange rate change shocks in the Turkish economy.

This study mainly concentrates on the exchange rate problems between Taiwan and China, so cross-strait economic and the evolution of exchange rate regulation regime would be the first work so as to provide some policy suggestions about the cross-strait trading settlement .The empirical work has two parts. The first part is examining the Currency Substitution(CS) of Taiwan, then uses Cointergration and Vector Estimate Correction Model for the short and long run condition. Currency Substitution would cause the volatility of exchange rate, and the next procedure is using the Markov Regime Switch Model to analyze the exchange rate of two countries from 03 January,1994 to 30 April,2012. The main purpose of this study is examining whether the two markets have a significant regime switch or not, then the empirical result finds that both markets have regime switch .Considering the difference of exchange rate regime in two countries, the decision of the cross rate becomes more prudent because China authority may underestimate the exchange to disturb the export of Taiwan.