Neste trabalho, o objetivo geral é investigar os processos sinóticos, dinâmicos e termodinâmicos de dois ciclones subtropicais ocorridos no Atlântico Sul. Utilizou-se um algoritmo de rastreamento de máximos de vorticidade ciclônica e o algoritmo Cyclone Phase Space (CPS), que permite classificar o ciclo de vida dos ciclones. Desenvolveu-se um processo de automatização destes algoritmos, que possibilitou a análise dos diagramas de fase de todos os ciclones ocorridos no Atlântico Subtropical durante 2008, 2009 e março de 2010. As condições sinóticas para dois eventos foram analisadas desde o período prévio à formação até o decaimento dos sistemas, e as equações do balanço de vorticidade e de calor foram utilizadas para investigar os processos dinâmicos e termodinâmicos. Embora com fraca intensidade em termos de pressão central, os ciclones tiveram impacto importante nas condições de tempo sobre suas regiões de atuação, e os ventos máximos superaram 15 m/s em 925 hPa por várias horas. Ambos os ciclones apresentaram, ao menos em algum tempo de sua fase subtropical, um pico de advecção horizontal quente em altos níveis, enquanto a advecção horizontal quente em baixos níveis apresentou fraca intensidade. Nos estágios de fase híbrida, o termo diabático foi responsável pelas tendências de aquecimento em baixos níveis. Já durante a fase de transição extratropical ocorrida em um dos ciclones, o sentido dos fluxos turbulentos em superfície se inverteu e o termo diabático passou a contribuir para tendências de resfriamento em baixos níveis. Em altos níveis, foram encontradas regiões em que altos valores positivos do termo diabático da equação da termodinâmica correspondem a regiões de intenso resíduo negativo da equação da vorticidade. Nestas regiões, os processos convectivos podem explicar os imbalanços de vorticidade. Nas demais regiões e níveis em que esta relação não ocorreu, sugere-se que a convecção influencia as variações locais de vorticidade de uma forma mais distribuída na coluna atmosférica, assim como a divergência associada aos movimentos verticais pode ocorrer de forma distribuída ao longo da troposfera. / This work aims to investigate the synoptic and dynamic processes of a sample of subtropical cyclones that occurred near the east coast of South America. A cyclonic vorticity maximum tracking algorithm and the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) algorithm are used to track and to classify the life cycle evolution of the cyclones. By automating these algorithms, it was possible to perform the analysis of the phase diagrams of all the cyclones occurred in the Subtropical Atlantic during 2008, 2009 and March 2010. The synoptic conditions for two events were analyzed from the period prior to the genesis until the decay of the systems, and the heat and vorticity balance equations were used to investigate the thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Although with low intensity in terms of central pressure, the cyclones had a major impact on the weather conditions in their regions of occurrence, and the 925 hPa maximum sustained winds exceeded 15 m/s for several hours. Both selected cyclones, at least at a time of its subtropical phase, had a peak of warm horizontal advection at higher levels, whilst the warm horizontal advection at lower levels showed weak intensity. In the hybrid stages of both cyclones, the diabatic term was responsible for warming trends at low levels. However, during the extratropical transition in one of the cyclones, the direction of the near-surface turbulent fluxes reversed and the diabatic term began to contribute to cooling trends at low levels. In the upper troposphere, it was found that in some regions that featured large positive values of the thermodynamic equation diabatic term, there was also a significant negative residual of the vorticity equation. In these regions, the convective processes can explain the observed vorticity imbalances. For other regions and levels, at which there was no direct relationship between the residual fields, it is suggested here that convection influences the local variations of vorticity in a more distributed way in the atmospheric column, as well as the divergence associated with the vertical velocities can be more distributed throughout the troposphere, without being concentrated at only some levels.

Neste trabalho, o objetivo geral é investigar os processos sinóticos, dinâmicos e termodinâmicos de dois ciclones subtropicais ocorridos no Atlântico Sul. Utilizou-se um algoritmo de rastreamento de máximos de vorticidade ciclônica e o algoritmo Cyclone Phase Space (CPS), que permite classificar o ciclo de vida dos ciclones. Desenvolveu-se um processo de automatização destes algoritmos, que possibilitou a análise dos diagramas de fase de todos os ciclones ocorridos no Atlântico Subtropical durante 2008, 2009 e março de 2010. As condições sinóticas para dois eventos foram analisadas desde o período prévio à formação até o decaimento dos sistemas, e as equações do balanço de vorticidade e de calor foram utilizadas para investigar os processos dinâmicos e termodinâmicos. Embora com fraca intensidade em termos de pressão central, os ciclones tiveram impacto importante nas condições de tempo sobre suas regiões de atuação, e os ventos máximos superaram 15 m/s em 925 hPa por várias horas. Ambos os ciclones apresentaram, ao menos em algum tempo de sua fase subtropical, um pico de advecção horizontal quente em altos níveis, enquanto a advecção horizontal quente em baixos níveis apresentou fraca intensidade. Nos estágios de fase híbrida, o termo diabático foi responsável pelas tendências de aquecimento em baixos níveis. Já durante a fase de transição extratropical ocorrida em um dos ciclones, o sentido dos fluxos turbulentos em superfície se inverteu e o termo diabático passou a contribuir para tendências de resfriamento em baixos níveis. Em altos níveis, foram encontradas regiões em que altos valores positivos do termo diabático da equação da termodinâmica correspondem a regiões de intenso resíduo negativo da equação da vorticidade. Nestas regiões, os processos convectivos podem explicar os imbalanços de vorticidade. Nas demais regiões e níveis em que esta relação não ocorreu, sugere-se que a convecção influencia as variações locais de vorticidade de uma forma mais distribuída na coluna atmosférica, assim como a divergência associada aos movimentos verticais pode ocorrer de forma distribuída ao longo da troposfera. / This work aims to investigate the synoptic and dynamic processes of a sample of subtropical cyclones that occurred near the east coast of South America. A cyclonic vorticity maximum tracking algorithm and the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) algorithm are used to track and to classify the life cycle evolution of the cyclones. By automating these algorithms, it was possible to perform the analysis of the phase diagrams of all the cyclones occurred in the Subtropical Atlantic during 2008, 2009 and March 2010. The synoptic conditions for two events were analyzed from the period prior to the genesis until the decay of the systems, and the heat and vorticity balance equations were used to investigate the thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Although with low intensity in terms of central pressure, the cyclones had a major impact on the weather conditions in their regions of occurrence, and the 925 hPa maximum sustained winds exceeded 15 m/s for several hours. Both selected cyclones, at least at a time of its subtropical phase, had a peak of warm horizontal advection at higher levels, whilst the warm horizontal advection at lower levels showed weak intensity. In the hybrid stages of both cyclones, the diabatic term was responsible for warming trends at low levels. However, during the extratropical transition in one of the cyclones, the direction of the near-surface turbulent fluxes reversed and the diabatic term began to contribute to cooling trends at low levels. In the upper troposphere, it was found that in some regions that featured large positive values of the thermodynamic equation diabatic term, there was also a significant negative residual of the vorticity equation. In these regions, the convective processes can explain the observed vorticity imbalances. For other regions and levels, at which there was no direct relationship between the residual fields, it is suggested here that convection influences the local variations of vorticity in a more distributed way in the atmospheric column, as well as the divergence associated with the vertical velocities can be more distributed throughout the troposphere, without being concentrated at only some levels.

L'étude de la variabilité des cyclones extra-tropicaux (ETC) est non seulement un sujet d'intérêt pour la communauté scientifique mais aussi d'une grande importance en raison de ses impacts socio-économiques. Toutefois, l'étude continué de la variabilité des ETC et de leurs impacts est encore rare, en particulier a l'échelle de temps du Xeme siècle. Cette thèse vise a étudier la variabilité des trajectoires de tempêtes et de leurs dégâts associés du début du Xxeme siècle a 2010. Pour ce faire, le travail est divisé en deux sections principales, l'une dédiée a la climatologie des ETCs au cours du siècle dernier a partir de données de réanalyse, et la seconde centrée sur le calcul d'indices de pertes et l'évaluation des risques induits par les tempêtes. On s'intéresse en premier lieu a l'étude de la variabilité des ETCs par l'application d'un algorithme de suivi de cyclone, sur la réanalyse de long terme du Centre Européen (ECMWF) ERA-20C. Le nombre annuel d'ETC modérées a intenses fait ressortir trois périodes historiques distinctes. Deux périodes, l'une au début et la seconde à la fin du Xeme siècle (1900-1935 et 1980-2010) ne présentent aucune tendance tandis qu'au milieu du siècle (1930-1980) une tendance significative à l'augmentation apparait. Cette dernière peut toutefois être interrogée en raison de l'inhomogénéité temporelle des réanalyses de long terme. Pour cette raison, un ensemble de paramètres physiques sont analysés en vue d'interpréter physiquement les trois périodes. Durant la période 1930-1980, un refroidissement général de l'atmosphère est observé, en particulier aux hautes latitudes, qui augmente le gradient méridien de température et en conséquence la baroclinicité et la conversion barocline. Par ailleurs, cette augmentation de la fréquence d'ETC est observée spécifiquement sur le Pacifique (Atlantique) au cours de la première (seconde) moitié de la période en lien avec une inversion de l'indice Oscillation Décennale du Pacifique (Oscillation Multidecennale Atlantique). La seconde partie de la thèse s'intéresse à l'analyse des tempête scausant les plus forts dégâts du Xeme siècle. Tout d'abord, on calcule un champ d'indices de dégâts de vents forts pour plus de vingt pays. On développe ensuite une Méthode de Suivi de Tempêtes de Forts Dégâts et les résultats de l'algorithme de suivi sont combinés avec les indices de dégâts de vents forts pour chaque pays. [...] / Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) variability is not only a subject that raises interest among the scientific community, but also extremely important in terms of social-economical impacts. Nevertheless, the study of both the extratropical cyclones variability and windstorms impacts is still scarce, particularly at time-scales that cover the twentieth century. This thesis aims to study, both storms track variability and associated losses from the beginning of the 20th century until 2010. In order to do so, the work was separated in two main parts, one witch focus on ETCs climatology during the last century using reanalysis data and another focused on loss indexes calculations and risk assessment of windstorms. The first part of this PhD concerns the study of ETCs variability after applying a tracking algorithm on the long-term ECMWF reanalysis ERA-20C. The number of ETCs per year shows three distinct periods for the moderate and deep cyclones. Two periods, one at the beginning and another at end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) for which no significant e trends are observed and a middle-century period between 1935-1980 which presents a significant positive trend. This last trend, however, a deeper analysis on this period should be done due to time-inhomogeneity of long-term reanalysis datasets. For this reason, a set of physical parameters are analysed and a physical interpretation made for each one of the periods. During the middle period, a general cooling of the atmosphere is observed, particularly at high-latitudes, which increases the meridional gradients of temperature and consequently baroclinicity and baroclinic conversion. Besides that, this increase is also observed more specifically in the Pacific (Atlantic) in the first (second) half of this period and linked with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) change in signs. On the opposite, the first and third periods are related with warmer polar temperatures that are more intense in the third period but never reach the upper levels of the troposphere. This creates differential changes in baroclinicity. On the one hand, baroclinicity decreases at lower levels and, on the other hand increases at upper levels. The second part of this thesis is focused on the analysis of the most damaging windstorms of the century. First, Loss and Meteorological indexes Pinto et al 2012 are computed for more than twenty countries. Then, a High-Loss Tracking Method is developed and the tracking algorithm trajectories are matched with the LI and MI information for each country. [...]

The emergence of the exascale era necessitates development of new techniques to efficiently perform high-performance scientific simulations, online data analysis and on-the-fly visualization. Critical applications like cyclone tracking and earthquake modeling require high-fidelity and high- performance simulations involving large-scale computations and generate huge amounts of data. Faster simulations and simultaneous online data analysis and visualization enable scientists provide real-time guidance to policy makers. In this thesis, we present a set of techniques for efficient high-fidelity simulations, online data analysis and visualization in environments with varying resource configurations. First, we present a strategy for improving throughput of weather simulations with multiple regions of interest. We propose parallel execution of these nested simulations based on partitioning the 2D process grid into disjoint rectangular regions associated with each subdomain. The process grid partitioning is obtained from a Huffman tree which is constructed from the relative execution times of the subdomains. We propose a novel combination of performance prediction, processor allocation methods and topology-aware mapping of the regions on torus interconnects. We observe up to 33% gain over the default strategy in weather models. Second, we propose a processor reallocation heuristic that minimizes data redistribution cost while reallocating processors in the case of dynamic regions of interest. This algorithm is based on hierarchical diffusion approach that uses a novel tree reorganization strategy. We have also developed a parallel data analysis algorithm to detect regions of interest within a domain. This helps improve performance of detailed simulations of multiple weather phenomena like depressions and clouds, thereby in- creasing the lead time to severe weather phenomena like tornadoes and storm surges. Our method is able to reduce the redistribution time by 25% over a simple partition from scratch method. We also show that it is important to consider resource constraints like I/O bandwidth, disk space and network bandwidth for continuous simulation and smooth visualization. High simulation rates on modern-day processors combined with high I/O bandwidth can lead to rapid accumulation of data at the simulation site and eventual stalling of simulations. We show that formulating the problem as an optimization problem can deter- mine optimal execution parameters for enabling smooth simulation and visualization. This approach proves beneficial for resource-constrained environments, whereas a naive greedy strategy leads to stalling and disk overflow. Our optimization method provides about 30% higher simulation rate and consumes about 25-50% lesser storage space than a naive greedy approach. We have then developed an integrated adaptive steering framework, InSt, that analyzes the combined e ect of user-driven steering with automatic tuning of application parameters based on resource constraints and the criticality needs of the application to determine the final parameters for the simulations. It is important to allow the climate scientists to steer the ongoing simulation, specially in the case of critical applications. InSt takes into account both the steering inputs of the scientists and the criticality needs of the application. Finally, we have developed algorithms to minimize the lag between the time when the simulation produces an output frame and the time when the frame is visualized. It is important to reduce the lag so that the scientists can get on-the- y view of the simulation, and concurrently visualize important events in the simulation. We present most-recent, auto-clustering and adaptive algorithms for reducing lag. The lag-reduction algorithms adapt to the available resource parameters and the number of pending frames to be sent to the visualization site by transferring a representative subset of frames. Our adaptive algorithm reduces lag by 72% and provides 37% larger representativeness than the most-recent for slow networks.