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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Online Non-linear Prediction of Financial Time Series Patterns

da Costa, Joel 11 September 2020 (has links)
We consider a mechanistic non-linear machine learning approach to learning signals in financial time series data. A modularised and decoupled algorithm framework is established and is proven on daily sampled closing time-series data for JSE equity markets. The input patterns are based on input data vectors of data windows preprocessed into a sequence of daily, weekly and monthly or quarterly sampled feature measurement changes (log feature fluctuations). The data processing is split into a batch processed step where features are learnt using a Stacked AutoEncoder (SAE) via unsupervised learning, and then both batch and online supervised learning are carried out on Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs) using these features. The FNN output is a point prediction of measured time-series feature fluctuations (log differenced data) in the future (ex-post). Weight initializations for these networks are implemented with restricted Boltzmann machine pretraining, and variance based initializations. The validity of the FNN backtest results are shown under a rigorous assessment of backtest overfitting using both Combinatorially Symmetrical Cross Validation and Probabilistic and Deflated Sharpe Ratios. Results are further used to develop a view on the phenomenology of financial markets and the value of complex historical data under unstable dynamics.

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