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Structural Estimation of Non-Homothetic Demand Systems for Quantitative Trade ModelsAnton C Yang (10893069) 04 August 2021 (has links)
<div>This thesis has three major chapters. Structural estimation of non-homothetic demands is the element that is the most common across the three papers in which structural parameters from the data.<br></div><div><br></div><div><b>First Chapter</b>: Preference structures in applied general equilibrium models are commonly in favor of the family of linear expenditure system (LES) due to the desire for global regularity and applicability, while other emerging preference functions include the constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) forms that are used as sub-utility functions to fulfil regularity conditions with additional flexibilities. Hanoch (1975) introduces indirect, implicit additive relationships—a generalization of the CES—to obtain more flexible demand relationships that are globally regular. These preference relationships unlink substitution effects from income effects in ways that go beyond relaxation of homotheticity, and are more flexible than their direct dual. However, the estimation of these models as demand systems has proven to be challenging, and most published work in this area has focused on estimation approaches that involve approximations or that cannot fully identify parameter values in the preference relationships. Essay one introduces a direct approach which avoids approximations and allows parameters to be identified. We demonstrate the estimation using the readily accessible Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the confidential World Bank (International Comparison Program) databases, estimating the constant difference of elasticity or CDE directly in a maximum likelihood framework. In doing this, we show that the global regularity conditions stated in Hanoch (1975) can be slightly relaxed, and that the relaxed parametric conditions facilitate estimation. We introduce a normalization scheme that is beneficial for the scaling of the parameter values and which appears to have little impact on the economic performance of the estimated system. We develop a numerical test that justifies the normalization scheme. The series of procedures developed in this paper applied to this empirical example is generalized to solve many other econometric problems of general demand models of the Bergson family and those that are under-identified using reduced-form approaches. </div><div><br></div><div><b>Second Chapter</b>: This paper presents a general equilibrium gravity model of trade based on the constant difference of elasticities of substitution preferences. Hanoch (1975) illustrates these preferences' advantages in terms of parsimony and flexibility. This paper introduces a parsimonious, non-homothetic and globally well-behaved demand model into the gravity model that both separates substitution effects from income effects and has non-constant substitution elasticities. These features of the demand model---together with the structural estimation procedure devised in this paper---allow nesting several prominent theoretical motivations for the gravity model, and exploring the merits of this more general model. They also allow identification of the elasticity of trade costs with respect to distance and asymmetric border coefficients from the elasticity of trade flows with respect to trade costs. Most previous studies cannot separately identify these structural parameters. </div><div><br></div><div><b>Third Chapter</b>: The primary advantage of structural approaches to estimating the gravity model of trade is that they allow a transparent mapping of regression coefficients to structural parameters. Unfortunately, as shown in essay two, existing structural estimation methods are unable to separately identify trade costs and the trade elasticity without incorporating external data. We demonstrate that theoretical structure is alone sufficient for identifying all of the structural parameters of the canonical constant elasticity of substitution (CES) gravity model. We accomplish this by adopting an implicitly indirect representation of utility and estimating structurally using a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints. Our estimate of the elasticity of substitution is much smaller than in much of the rest of the literature, an outcome that we attribute to Pigou's Law, which ties income and substitution elasticities together in demand systems that assume additive preferences. This restriction is undesirable in demand systems, generally, and is a critical weakness for the canonical gravity model, a model that is commonly used to interpret the geographic trade pattern and to infer the welfare gains from trade. We demonstrate a non-homothetic CES model that both achieves identification and relaxes this restriction. Our counterfactual results based on the model suggest that the combination of a lower elasticity and lower trade costs generate a larger welfare change due to border removal compared to the CES model.<br></div>
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The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast EvaluationDharmasena, Kalu Arachchillage Senarath 2010 May 1900 (has links)
There are many different types of non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) available in
the United States today compared to a decade ago. Additionally, the needs of beverage
consumers have evolved over the years centering attention on functionality and health
dimensions. These trends in volume of consumption are a testament to the growth in the
NAB industry.
Our study pertains to ten NAB categories. We developed and employed a unique
cross-sectional and time-series data set based on Nielsen Homescan data associated with
household purchases of NAB from 1998 through 2003.
First, we considered demographic and economic profiling of the consumption of
NAB in a two-stage model. Race, region, age and presence of children and gender of
household head were the most important factors affecting the choice and level of
consumption.
Second, we used expectation-prediction success tables, calibration, resolution,
the Brier score and the Yates partition of the Brier score to measure the accuracy of predictions generated from qualitative choice models used to model the purchase
decision of NAB by U.S. households. The Yates partition of the Brier score
outperformed all other measures.
Third, we modeled demand interrelationships, dynamics and habits of NAB
consumption estimating own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities. The
Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, the synthetic Barten model and the State
Adjustment Model were used. Soft drinks were substitutes and fruit juices were
complements for most of non-alcoholic beverages. Investigation of a proposed tax on
sugar-sweetened beverages revealed the importance of centering attention not only to
direct effects but also to indirect effects of taxes on beverage consumption.
Finally, we investigated factors affecting nutritional contributions derived from
consumption of NAB. Also, we ascertained the impact of the USDA year 2000 Dietary
Guidelines for Americans associated with the consumption of NAB. Significant factors
affecting caloric and nutrient intake from NAB were price, employment status of
household head, region, race, presence of children and the gender of household food
manager. Furthermore, we found that USDA nutrition intervention program was
successful in reducing caloric and caffeine intake from consumption of NAB.
The away-from-home intake of beverages and potential impacts of NAB
advertising are not captured in our work. In future work, we plan to address these
limitations.
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Music markets and the adoption of novelty : experimental approaches / Marché de la musique et adoption de la nouveauté : approches expérimentalesBernard, Anna 06 June 2017 (has links)
Par sa nature prototypique, chaque bien musical, et par extension chaque bien culturel, est un bien nouveau. Cette thèse a pour objectif d’étudier la consommation et le financement de la nouveauté musicale en adoptant deux approches de l’économie expérimentale : les expériences en laboratoire (première partie) et l’interprétation des données de terrain à partir de mesures expérimentales (seconde partie). La première partie explore les déterminants et les caractéristiques de la demande de nouveauté musicale. Dans un premier chapitre, nous étudions l’effet de l’information et du prix sur la concentration de la demande lorsque les consommateurs peuvent choisir entre des artistes établis sur le marché et des nouveaux entrants. Le second chapitre propose une estimation de systèmes complets de demande pour quatre genres musicaux. La seconde partie de cette thèse s’intéresse aux comportements de contributeurs sur une plateforme de financement participatif avec récompenses. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous proposons un modèle rendant compte de la décision de contribuer à un projet musical à partir du constat que les contributeurs font face à deux types de risque : le risque d’échec de la coordination et le risque de non livraison du produit. Dans ce contexte, l’illusion de contrôle permet d’expliquer la dynamique de contribution. L’étude du rôle des préférences face au risque montre que lorsque le risque d’échec de la coordination disparaît, l’aversion au risque est corrélée négativement au niveau des contributions. Cependant, en début de campagne, cette corrélation est positive. Le dernier chapitre se concentre sur la nature hybride du financement participatif. Les résultats suggèrent que la décision de contribution relève d’une logique de don tandis que le niveau de ces contributions relève d’une logique de consommation. / By its prototypical nature, each musical good, and by extension each cultural good, is new. The aim of this thesis is two study the consumption and the funding of musical novelty, using two experimental approaches : the use of in-lab experiments to study demand (part I) and the use of experimental measures to understand field behaviors (part II). The first part explores the determinants and characteristics of demand for novelty. In the first chapter, we study the demand concentration when consumers can choose between established artists and new entrants. The second chapter presents estimations of an almost ideal demand system for four musical genres. The second part of this thesis focuses on contributors’ behaviors of a reward-based crowdfunding platform. In a third chapter, we propose a model of decision to contribute to a musical project, based on the observation that contributors are exposed to two types of risk : a risk of coordination failure and a risk of non delivery. With this in mind, illusion of control allows to understand the timing of decision. A closer look at the role of risk preferences shows that risk aversion is negatively correlated with contributions when coordination is ensured. On the contrary, the correlation becomes positive at the beginning of a campaign. In the last chapter, we investigate the mixed nature of crowdfunding. Results suggest that the decision to contribute falls within a donation logic while the decision on how much to contribute falls within a consumption logic.
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