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In the period following the end of World War II, Western European countries have experienced rapid economic growth. In the second half of the fifties, labour shortages emerged, obliging developed countries to have recourse to foreign labour in order to maintain high growth rates. During the sixties, bilateral agreements between European industralised countries (West Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium ... ) and less developed Mediterranean countries (Spain, Portugal, Greece, Yugoslavia, Turkey ... ) produced large-scale migration in Western Europe. The main bulk of Greek emigration has been directed towards West Germany, reaching a peak in 1971, while the reverse flow of returning migrants exceeded emigration from 1974 up to 1981. Data concerning these two flows, from 1960 to 1982, give us the opportunity to test the determinants of both outward and return migration using models based on the Neo-classical, the Keynesian and the Human Capital theories. Under the Neo-classical assumptions about labour and product markets, migration of labour is explained by income differentials prevailing between two regions. The Keynesian model adds unemployment as a cause of migration. Because of the static framework concerning the above models, expectations about future income resulting from migration have been introduced to make the model dynamic. Under the Human Capital theory, migration will occur if the present value of the expected benefits exceeds the present value of the expected costs resulting from migration. Empirical tests of the above model's using OLS or other methods attempting to overcome econometric problems, are presented. Logarithmic forms of emigration equations present the best results. The logarithmic form implicitly assumes that emigration is of a Cobb-Douglas type function. Because of the weaknesses concerning Cobb-Douglas type functions, a translog type emigration function is determined and tests are applied in order to find the best estimation provided by the two functions. Next, we consider migration decisionmaking at the level of an individual who seeks to maximise his welfare in conditions of uncertainty. Introducing utility functions and risk coefficients, the maximisation of welfare yields a stochastic migration function. Furthermore, we examine the migration decision in a binary choice model context. The potential migrant has to decide whether to migrate or not, and an application of the binary logit probability model enables us to estimate the probability that an individual drawn at random from the population will choose to migrate. Finally, we estimate emigration and return migration functions together with employment (or unemployment) and wages functions in a simultaneous equations system in order to avoid simultaneous bias resulting from interdependence between migration and other variables used as explanatory in the previous models.

This thesis is a study of patterns and differentials in nuptiality and marital fertility in Kenya using data from the Kenya Fertility Survey undertaken in 1977/78 jointly by the Central Bureau of Statistics, Government of Kenya and the World Fertility Survey, London of the International Statistical Institute. Such a survey as this, like many others carried out by the World Fertility Survey in both developing and developed countries, has provided an unprecedented opportunity for greater understanding of the relationship between nuptiality and fertility on the one hand and nuptiality, fertility and socio-economic factors on the other. Such information is very crucial in the formulation and implementation of socio-economic and cultural development plans. The results of this study have confirmed that marriage is a universal and stable institution and that women marry young. Median age at marriage is 18,7 with education having the greatest influence on age at marriage as it provides alternative options to early marriage. However, polygamy is still widespread, accounting for about 30 per cent among all married women in the childbearing age range. Associated with this cultural phenomenon, most Kenyan women marry only once while men often marry women much younger than themselves and with either similar or lower level of education. The study has also confirmed that inspite of the recent rise in age at marriage especially among the young population during the last 15-20 years, corresponding to the expansion in education services and to increased urbanization, fertility remains one of the highest in the world. However, education and urbanization appear to have the greatest influence on fertility. Women with secondary and higher education experience the lowest fertility and women with lower primary education, the highest. Rural-urban differentials in fertility were found to be even more marked, with metro politan women having, on average, one child less than rural residents. This seems to be one of the few African countries south of the Sahara where there is convincing evidence of rural-urban differential in fertility in the expected direction. Polygamous women, too, were found to have lower fertility than their monogamous counterparts. The study of the proximate determinants of fertility (intermediate fertility variables) using Bongaarts model suggested that the proportion married among the population, level of use of contraception and postpartum infecundability (influenced by breastfeeding) are significant in explaining marital fertility differentials. Modernization in the form of education and urbanization has had offsetting effects upon the intermediate variables by reducing lactation and increasing contraception. However, the proportion using contraception (limited mainly among those with secondary and higher education and the metropolitan residents) is too small to have any significant impact on the overall level of fertility. The lower level of fertility observed particularly among the metropolitan, coast and Muslim categories of population may be accounted for by the prevalence of venereal diseases, unreported contraception and induced abortion.