Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-03T18:35:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Wilson_Motta_Miceli.pdf: 1094265 bytes, checksum: 5165e68d2ea0db5cb92a1fcd0d0a6665 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-08-28 / The present scenario of interest rate reduction has been object of discussion in the financial market, specially in asset management offices, that aim yield alternatives and portfolio risk mitigation. The comprehension of the reasons of the reduced use of derivatives by hedge funds required an exploratory analysis in asset management offices. The exploratory research, along with the fund managers was done through a list of questions sent by e-mail to hedge funds directors and managers. The behavior of the agricultural derivatives price at BM&F was also used to calculate the risk and return of a portfolio formed by six agricultural futures contracts. In the period studied, the analysis showed that these instruments can reduce portfolio risk and bring a higher return than the interest rate used in the market. The descriptive analysis and non-parametric techniques done by the Cluster analysis along with the Mann-Whitney test and the Crammer correlation showed that there are some operational and structural obstacles related to derivatives instruments witch can explain the low use of agricultural derivatives in hedge funds. / O cen??rio atual de redu????o da taxa de juros tem sido objeto de discuss??o nos meios financeiros, em especial, na gest??o de recursos, que busca alternativas de rentabilidade e mitiga????o no risco de carteira. Este estudo referiu-se a uma an??lise explorat??ria, junto aos Assets Managements, para investigar as raz??es que determinam o reduzido uso destes instrumentos derivativos pelos fundos de investimentos multimercados. Para tanto procurou-se analisar o comportamento dos pre??os dos derivativos agropecu??rios negociados na BM&F, calculando-se o risco da carteira, formada por seis contratos futuros agropecu??rios, e o seu retorno. Esta an??lise demonstrou, no per??odo avaliado, que estes instrumentos podem reduzir o risco da carteira e promoveram um retorno pouco acima da taxa de juros de mercado. A pesquisa explorat??ria, junto aos gestores dos fundos de investimentos foi realizada atrav??s de question??rios enviados por e-mail aos diretores e gestores dos fundos multimercados. A an??lise descritiva conjugada com t??cnicas n??o-param??tricas, atrav??s da an??lise de cluster acoplada com os testes de Mann-Whitney e a correla????o de Cram??r demonstraram que existem alguns obst??culos de car??ter operacional e estrutural, referentes aos instrumentos derivativos, que explicam o baixo uso dos derivativos agropecu??rios nas carteiras dos fundos multimercados.

Thesis (PhD)--Macquarie University, Division of Economic and Financial Studies, Dept. of Statistics, 2008. / Bibliography: p. 73-77. / Introduction -- Lévy processes used in option pricing -- Option pricing for Lévy processes -- Option pricing based on empirical characteristic functions -- Performance of the five models on historical data -- Conclusions -- References -- Appendix A. Proofs -- Appendix B. Supplements -- Appendix C. Matlab programs. / Pricing problems of financial derivatives are among the most important ones in Quantitative Finance. Since 1973 when a Nobel prize winning model was introduced by Black, Merton and Scholes the Brownian Motion (BM) process gained huge attention of professionals professionals. It is now known, however, that stock market log-returns do not follow the very popular BM process. Derivative pricing models which are based on more general Lévy processes tend to perform better. --Carr & Madan (1999) and Lewis (2001) (CML) developed a method for vanilla options valuation based on a characteristic function of asset log-returns assuming that they follow a Lévy process. Assuming that at least part of the problem is in adequate modeling of the distribution of log-returns of the underlying price process, we use instead a nonparametric approach in the CML formula and replaced the unknown characteristic function with its empirical version, the Empirical Characteristic Functions (ECF). We consider four modifications of this model based on the ECF. The first modification requires only historical log-returns of the underlying price process. The other three modifications of the model need, in addition, a calibration based on historical option prices. We compare their performance based on the historical data of the DAX index and on ODAX options written on the index between the 1st of June 2006 and the 17th of May 2007. The resulting pricing errors show that one of our models performs, at least in the cases considered in the project, better than the Carr & Madan (1999) model based on calibration of a parametric Lévy model, called a VG model. --Our study seems to confirm a necessity of using implied parameters, apart from an adequate modeling of the probability distribution of the asset log-returns. It indicates that to precisely reproduce behaviour of the real option prices yet other factors like stochastic volatility need to be included in the option pricing model. Fortunately the discrepancies between our model and real option prices are reduced by introducing the implied parameters which seem to be easily modeled and forecasted using a mixture of regression and time series models. Such approach is computationaly less expensive than the explicit modeling of the stochastic volatility like in the Heston (1993) model and its modifications. / Mode of access: World Wide Web. / x, 111 p. ill., charts

Univ., Diss.--Frankfurt/Main, 2004. / Literaturangaben.

Thesis (doctoral)--Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references.

Dissertação (mestrado) - Albert-Ludwig-Universität Freiburg i.Br. Juristische Fakultät, Alemanha, 1998. / Bibliografia: p. 53-56. / Inclui notas de rodapé.

M.Com. (Financial Economics) / This study investigates the best measure of extreme losses in the South African equity derivatives market, and applies this to estimate the size of a default fund for Safcom, the central counterparty (CCP) for exchange-traded derivatives in South Africa. The predictive abilities of historic simulation Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional VaR (CVaR), Extreme VaR (EVaR) calculated using a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and stress testing are compared during historic periods of stress in this market. The iterative cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) is applied to identify significant and large, positive shifts in the volatility of returns, thus indicating the start of a stress period. The FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index Future (known as the ALSI future) is used as a proxy for this market. Two key periods of stress are identified, namely the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. The maximum daily losses in the ALSI during these stress periods were observed on 28 October 1997 and 6 October 2008. For the VaR-based loss estimates, 2500 trading days’ returns up to 28 October 1997 and 2750 trading days’ returns up to 6 October 2008 is used. The study finds that Extreme VaR predicts extreme losses during these two historic periods of stress the most accurately and is consequently applied to the quantification of a default fund for Safcom, using 2500 daily returns from 5 June 2003 to 31 May 2013. The EVaR-based estimation of a default fund shows that the current Safcom default fund is sufficient to provide for market losses equivalent to what was suffered during the 2008 global financial crisis, but not sufficient for the magnitude of losses suffered during the 1997 Asian crisis.

When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it is automatically "cross-listed" in the index derivative markets (i.e., S&P 500 Index futures and Index options). I examined the effects of such cross-listing on the trading volume and return volatility of the underlying component stocks. Traditional finance theory asserts that futures and "cash" markets are connected by arbitrage mechanism that brings both markets to equilibrium. When arbitrage opportunities arise, arbitrageurs buy (sell) the index portfolio and take short (long) positions in the corresponding index derivative contracts until prices return to theoretical levels. Such mechanical arbitrage trading tends to create large order flows that could be difficult for the market to absorb, resulting in price changes. Utilizing a list of S&P 500 index composition changes occurring over the period September 1976 to December 2005, I investigated the market-adjusted volume turnover ratios and return variances of the stocks being added to and deleted from the S&P 500, surrounding the effective day of index membership changes. My primary finding is that, after the introduction of the S&P 500 index futures and options contracts, stocks added to the S&P 500 experience significant increase in both trading volume and return volatility. However, deleted stocks experience no significant change in either trading volume or return volatility. Both daily and monthly return variances increase following index inclusion, consistent with the hypothesis that derivative transactions "fundamentally" destabilize the underlying securities. I argue that the increase in trading volume and return volatility may be attributed to index arbitrage transactions as derivative markets provide more routes for index arbitrageurs to trade. Other index trading strategies such as portfolio insurance and program trading may also contribute to the results. On the other hand, a deleted stock is not associated with changes in trading volume and volatility since it represents an extremely small fraction of the market value-weighted index portfolio, and the influence of index trading strategies becomes slight for these shares. Furthermore, evidence is provided that trading volume and return volatility are positively related.

by Ng Wing-Sze Cecilia. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 92-93). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENT --- p.iii / CHAPTER / Chapter 1. --- COMPANY PROFILE --- p.1 / The Walt Disney Parks --- p.1 / Hong Kong Disneyland --- p.1 / Location --- p.1 / Park Developer & Operator --- p.2 / Financing --- p.2 / Infrastructure --- p.3 / Schedule of Operation --- p.4 / Chapter 2. --- HONG KONG DISNEYLAND BUSINESS MODEL --- p.6 / Revenue Model --- p.7 / Customer Base --- p.7 / Pricing Strategy --- p.8 / Financial Performance Variable --- p.9 / Risk Management Program --- p.10 / The Walt Disney Company Risk Management --- p.10 / HKDL Risk Management --- p.13 / Risk Management on Book Record --- p.13 / Chapter 3. --- PRECIPITATION RISK EXPOSURE --- p.15 / Introduction to Precipitation --- p.15 / Distinguish between Weather and Climate --- p.16 / Rainfall Risk Exposure --- p.16 / Precipitation in Hong Kong --- p.17 / Overview --- p.17 / Rainstorm Warning System --- p.18 / Practices on Rainy Days --- p.20 / Theme Park Industry --- p.20 / The Ocean Park --- p.21 / Rainfall Risk Mitigation --- p.21 / Chapter 4. --- WEATHER DERIVATIVES --- p.24 / Evolution --- p.24 / The Birth of Weather Derivatives --- p.24 / Weather Risk Management Association --- p.24 / Year 1999 --- p.25 / Year 2000 --- p.25 / Year 2001 --- p.26 / Year 2002 --- p.26 / Precipitation Derivatives --- p.27 / Market & Market Players --- p.28 / Types of Product --- p.30 / Index Derivatives --- p.30 / Event-Basis Derivatives --- p.32 / Chapter 5. --- Hedging Against Rainfall Risk with Weather Derivatives --- p.33 / Formation of Hedging Strategy --- p.34 / Hedging Objectives --- p.34 / Hedging Target --- p.35 / Dimension of Precipitation Impacts --- p.35 / Normal Revenue without Rainfall Risk --- p.40 / Revenue Forecasting for Year 1 --- p.41 / Specifications on the Contracts --- p.46 / Chapter 6. --- General Recommendations to HKDL for hedging with all kinds of Rainfall Derivatives --- p.49 / Choice of Market and Counter Parties --- p.49 / Index Model Design --- p.50 / Dimensions of Variables & Time Scale --- p.50 / Accumulated Rainfall Index --- p.51 / Methodologies of Rainfall Measurements --- p.54 / Location of Rainfall Measuring Stations --- p.54 / Measuring Instrument --- p.56 / Historical Data Consistency --- p.58 / Data Availability and Reliability --- p.59 / Choice of Strike Level --- p.59 / Tick Size and Maximum Payments --- p.62 / Pricing Approach --- p.63 / Chapter 7. --- Example of Rainfall Derivatives --- p.66 / Black/Red Rainstorm Signal Call --- p.66 / Specifications --- p.66 / Revenue model under Different Scenario --- p.68 / Chapter 8. --- Portfolio Management --- p.70 / Risk Management Information System --- p.70 / Issues on Book Keeping --- p.71 / Chapter 9. --- CONCULSION --- p.72

Agriculture is of inestimable value to South Africa because it is a major source of job creation and plays a key role in earning foreign exchange. The most significant contribution of agriculture, and in particular maize, is its ability to provide food for the nation. For a number of decades government legislation determined prices, and as such the trade of grains on the futures exchange requires market participants to adapt to a volatile environment. The research focuses on the ability of market participants to effectively mitigate price volatility on the futures exchange through the use of derivative instruments, and the possibility of developing risk management strategies that will outperform the return offered by the market. The study shows that market participants are unable to use derivative instruments in such a way that price volatility is minimised. The findings of the study also indicate that the development of derivative risk management strategies could result in better returns than those offered by the market, mainly by exploiting trends on the futures market. / Financial Accounting / M. Comm. (Business Management)

Corn production is scattered geographically over various continents, but most of it is grown in the United States. As such, the world price of corn futures contracts is largely dominated by North American corn prices as traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. In recent years, this market has been characterised by an increase in price volatility and magnitude of price movement as a result of decreasing stock levels. The development and implementation of an effective and successful derivative price risk management strategy based on the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures contract will therefore be of inestimable value to market stakeholders worldwide. The research focused on the efficient market hypothesis and the possibility of contesting this phenomenon through an application of a derivative price risk management methodology. The methodology is based on a combination of an analysis of market trends and technical oscillators with the objective of generating returns superior to that of a market benchmark. The study found that market participants are currently unable to exploit price movement in a manner which results in returns that contest the notion of efficient markets. The methodology proposed, however, does allow the user to consistently achieve returns superior to that of a predetermined market benchmark. The benchmark price for the purposes of this study was the average price offered by the market over the contract lifetime, and such, the efficient market hypothesis was successfully contested. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)