This dissertation presents a novel procedure to select explanatory variables, without the influence of human bias, for deterioration model development using National Bridge Inventory (NBI) data. Using NBI information, including geometric data and climate information, candidate explanatory variables can be converted into normalized numeric values and analyzed prior to the development of deterministic or stochastic deterioration models. The prevailing approach for explanatory variable selection is to use expert opinion solicited from experienced engineers. This may introduce human influenced biases into the deterioration modeling process. A framework using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalized regression and covariance analysis are combined to compensate for this potential bias. Additionally, the cross validation analysis and solution path is used as a standard for the selection of minimum number of explanatory variables. The proposed method is demonstrated through the creation of deterministic deterioration models for deck, superstructure, and substructure for Wyoming bridges and compared to explanatory variables using the expert selection method. The comparison shows a significant decrease in error using the presented framework based on the L2 relative error norm. The final chapter presents a new method to develop stochastic deterioration models using logistic regression. The relative importance amongst explanatory variables is used to develop a classification tree for Wyoming bridges. The bridges in a subset are commonly associated with several explanatory variables, so that the deterioration models can be more representative and accurate than using a single explanatory variable. The logistic regression is used to introduce the stochastic contribution into the deterioration models. In order to avoid missing data problems, the binary categories condition rating, either remaining the same or decreased, are considered for logistic regression. The probability of changes in bridges’ condition rating is obtained and the averages for same condition ratings are used to create transition probability matrix for each age group. The deterioration model based on Markov chain are developed for Wyoming bridges and compared with the previous model based on percentage prediction and optimization approach. The prediction error is analyzed, which demonstrates the considerable performance of the proposed method and is suitable for relatively small data samples.

Condition of infrastructure is deteriorated over time as it gets older. It is the deterioration model that predicts how and when facilities will deteriorate over time. In most infrastructure management system, the deterioration model is a crucial element. Using the deterioration model, it is very helpful to estimate when repair will be carried out, how much will be needed for the maintenance of the entire facilities, and what maintenance costs will be required during the life cycle of the facility. However, the study of deterioration model for civil infrastructures of ports is still in its infancy. In particular, there is almost no related research in South Korea. Thus, this study aims to develop a deterioration model for civil infrastructure of ports in South Korea. There are various methods such as Deterministic, Stochastic, and Artificial Intelligence to develop deterioration model. In this research, Markov model using Markov chain theory, one of the Stochastic methods, is used to develop deterioration model for ports in South Korea. Markov chain is a probabilistic process among states. i.e., in Markov chain, transition among states follows some probability which is called as the transition probability. The key process of developing Markov model is to find this transition probability. This process is called calibration. In this study, the existing methods, Optimization method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are reviewed, and methods to improve for these are presented. In addition, in this study, only a small amount of data are used, which causes distortion of the model. Thus, supplement techniques are presented to overcome the small size of data. In order to address the problem of the existing methods and the lack of data, the deterioration model developed by the four calibration methods: Optimization, Optimization with Bootstrap, MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), and MCMC with Multiple imputation, are finally proposed in this study. In addition, comparison between four models are carried out and good performance model is proposed. This research provides deterioration model for port in South Korea, and more accurate calibration technique is suggested. Furthermore, the method of supplementing insufficient data has been combined with existing calibration techniques.

Modeling pavement deterioration and predicting the pavement performance is crucial for optimum pavement network management. Currently only a few models exist that incorporate the structural capacity of the pavements into deterioration modeling. This thesis develops pavement deterioration models that take into account, along with the age of the pavement, the pavement structural condition expressed in terms of the Modified Structural Index (MSI). The research found MSI to be a significant input parameter that affects the rate of deterioration of a pavement section by using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The AIC method suggests that a model that includes the MSI is at least 10^21 times more likely to be closer to the true model than a model that does not include the MSI. The developed models display the average deterioration of pavement sections for specific ages and MSI values. Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) annually collects pavement condition data on road sections with various lengths. Due to the nature of data collection practices, many biased measurements or influential outliers exist in this data. Upon the investigation of data quality and characteristics, the models were built based on filtered and cleansed data. Following the regression models, an empirical Bayesian approach was employed to reduce the variance between observed and predicted conditions and to deliver a more accurate prediction model. / Master of Science

Pavement Management Systems (PMS) are widely used by transportation agencies to maintain safe, durable and economic road networks. PMS prioritize the maintenance and rehabilitation of pavement sections by evaluating pavement performance at the network level. There are many PMS software packages that have been developed over the past decades for provincial/state road agencies. However, sometimes due to lack of budget and experience, adopting the existing PMS for a road agency is not cost effective. Thus, it is important to introduce a simple, effective, and affordable PMS for a local agency and municipality. This research is carried out in partnership between the City of Markham and the Centre for Pavement and Transportation Technology (CPATT) located at the University of Waterloo. For the purpose of developing a PMS for local agencies, an extensive literature review on PMS components was carried out, with emphasizing data inventory, data collection, and performance evaluation. In addition, the literature review also concentrated on the overall pavement condition assessment. In July 2011, a study on “Evaluation of Pavement Distress Measurement Survey” was conducted as a part of this research and was distributed to cities and municipalities across Canada. The study focused on the current state-of-the-practice in pavement distress and condition evaluation methods used by local agencies to compare the results from the literature review. The components of the proposed PMS framework are also developed based on the literature review with some modifications and technical requirements. The City of Markham is selected as a case study, since it represents a local agency and provides all the data, to illustrate the validation of the proposed PMS framework.

Pavement Management Systems (PMS) are widely used by transportation agencies to maintain safe, durable and economic road networks. PMS prioritize the maintenance and rehabilitation of pavement sections by evaluating pavement performance at the network level. There are many PMS software packages that have been developed over the past decades for provincial/state road agencies. However, sometimes due to lack of budget and experience, adopting the existing PMS for a road agency is not cost effective. Thus, it is important to introduce a simple, effective, and affordable PMS for a local agency and municipality. This research is carried out in partnership between the City of Markham and the Centre for Pavement and Transportation Technology (CPATT) located at the University of Waterloo. For the purpose of developing a PMS for local agencies, an extensive literature review on PMS components was carried out, with emphasizing data inventory, data collection, and performance evaluation. In addition, the literature review also concentrated on the overall pavement condition assessment. In July 2011, a study on “Evaluation of Pavement Distress Measurement Survey” was conducted as a part of this research and was distributed to cities and municipalities across Canada. The study focused on the current state-of-the-practice in pavement distress and condition evaluation methods used by local agencies to compare the results from the literature review. The components of the proposed PMS framework are also developed based on the literature review with some modifications and technical requirements. The City of Markham is selected as a case study, since it represents a local agency and provides all the data, to illustrate the validation of the proposed PMS framework.

Performance prediction modeling is a crucial step in assessing the remaining service life of pipelines. Sound infrastructure deterioration models are essential for accurately predicting future performance that, in turn, are critical tools for efficient maintenance, repair and rehabilitation decision making. The objective of this research is to develop a gravity and force main pipe performance deterioration model for predicting the remaining economic life of wastewater pipe for infrastructure asset management. For condition assessment of gravity pipes, the defect indices currently in practice, use CCTV inspection and a defect coding scale to assess the internal condition of the wastewater pipes. Unfortunately, in practice, the distress indices are unable to capture all the deterioration mechanisms and distresses on pipes to provide a comprehensive and accurate evaluation of the pipe performance. Force main pipes present a particular challenge in performance prediction modeling. The consequence of failure can be higher for the force mains relative to the gravity pipes which increases the risk associated with these assets. However, unlike gravity pipes, there are no industry standards for inspection and condition assessment for force mains. Furthermore, accessibility issues for inspections add to this challenge. Under Water Environmental and Reuse Foundation (WEandRF)'s Strategic Asset Management (SAM) Challenge, there was a planned three-phase development of this performance prediction model. Only Phases 1 and 2 were completed for gravity pipes under the SAM Challenge. Currently, 37 utilities nationally distributed have provided data and support for this research. Data standards are developed to capture the physical, operational, structural, environmental, financial, and other factors affecting the performance. These data standards were reviewed by various participating utilities and service providers for completeness and accuracy. The performance of the gravity and force main pipes are assessed with incorporating the single and combined effects of these parameters on performance. These indices assess the performance regarding; integrity, corrosion, surface wear, joint, lining, blockage, IandI, root intrusion, and capacity. These performance indices are used for the long-term prediction of performance. However, due to limitations in historical performance data, an advanced integrated method for probabilistic performance modeling to construct workable transition probabilities for predicting long-term performance has been developed. A selection process within this method chooses a suitable prediction model for a given situation in terms of available historical data. Prediction models using time and state-dependent data were developed for this prediction model for reliable long-term performance prediction. Reliability of performance assessments and long-term predictions are tested with the developed verification and validation (VeandVa) framework. VeandVa framework incorporates piloting the performance index and prediction models with artificial, field, and forensic data collected from participating utilities. The deterioration model and the supporting data was integrated with the PIPEiD (Pipeline Infrastructure Database) for effective dissemination and outreach. / PHD

This thesis presents (a) results of a field evaluation of the Traffic Speed Deflectometer (TSD) in the United States (b) deflection thresholds to classify the pavement structural condition obtained from the TSD for a small subset of the Pennsylvania secondary road network. The results of the field evaluation included: (1) repeatability of the TSD, (2) ability of the TSD to identify pavement sections with varying structural conditions, and (3) consistency between the structural number (SNeff) calculated from the TSD and SNeff calculated by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT). The results showed consistent error standard deviation in the TSD measurements and that the TSD was able to identify pavement sections that varied in structural condition. Comparison of the SNeff calculated with TSD measurements, using an empirically developed equation by Rohde, with the SNeff calculated by PennDOT’s Pavement Management System based on construction history showed similar trends, although the TSD-calculated SNeff was higher. In order to develop deflection thresholds, a model that related the pavement surface condition to pavement surface age and structural condition was developed. Structural condition thresholds were then selected so that the pavement surface condition predicted from the model for a 10-year-old pavement surface fell within one of the three condition categories (Good, Fair, and Poor), to identify pavements in good, fair and poor condition. With Overall Pavement Index(OPI) characterizing the surface condition and Deflection Slope Index(DSI) characterizing the structural condition, the DSI threshold that separates structurally good from structurally fair pavements was determined as follows: (1) the OPI threshold that separates pavements with good surface condition from those with fair surface condition was obtained from the Pennsylvania Pavement Management System (PMS) and (2) the DSI thresholds were calculated using the determined OPI value and the model equation. / Master of Science / This thesis presents (a) some of the results of a field evaluation of the Traffic Speed Deflectometer (TSD) in the United States (b) deflection thresholds to classify the pavement structural condition obtained from the TSD for a small subset of the Pennsylvania secondary road network. The results of the field evaluation included: (1) repeatability of the TSD: which is the variation in repeated TSD measurements on the same section of the road, (2) ability of the TSD to identify pavement sections with varying structural conditions, and (3) consistency between the structural number (SNeff) calculated from the TSD and SNeff calculated by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT). The pavement structural number is an abstract number expressing the structural strength of the pavement. The results showed that the TSD measurements were repeatable and that the TSD was able to identify pavement sections that varied in structural condition. Comparison of the SNeff calculated with TSD measurements, using an empirically developed equation by Rohde, with the SNeff calculated by PennDOT Pavement Management System based on construction history showed similar trends, although the TSD-calculated SNeff was higher. In order to develop deflection thresholds to categorize pavements in different condition: good, fair and poor, a model that related the pavement surface condition to pavement surface age and structural condition was developed. Structural condition thresholds were then selected so that the pavement surface condition predicted from the model for a 10-year-old pavement surface fell within one of the three condition categories (Good, Fair, and Poor), to identify pavements in good, fair and poor condition. With Overall Pavement Index(OPI) characterizing the surface condition and Deflection Slope Index(DSI) characterizing the structural condition, the DSI threshold that separates structurally good from structurally fair pavements was determined as follows: (1) the OPI threshold that separates pavements with good surface condition from those with fair surface condition was obtained from the Pennsylvania Pavement Management System (PMS) and (2) the DSI thresholds were calculated using the determined OPI value and the model equation.