Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2013. / Cannot copy abstract

In a broad sense, an industrial policy is aimed at influencing the structure of an economy. Justin Lin (2010), argues that the best way to upgrade a country’s endowment structure is to develop its industries according to the comparative advantages determined by its given endowment structure at that time. Then he assumes that the economy would be most competitive, the economic surplus predominant, and the capital accumulation and the upgrading of factor endowment structure will be the fastest possible. He further proposes that the private enterprises should enter industries according to the country’s comparative advantages, relative factor prices must fully reflect the relative abundance of those factors as prices can only be determined through competition in a ―well-functioning‖ market. Therefore, the market should be the basic institution of the economy. The proposed essay will conduct a critical analysis of structuralism and industrial policy as propagated within the ―New Structural Economics‖ realm as proposed by Justin Lin, a former World Bank chief economist. The proposed inquiry would attempt to underline that the Newly Industrialised Countries showed that specific institutions have performed a critical role in guiding market forces towards industrial development. Notably is the state as an institution in its developmental role in guiding economic strategy and industrial policies. Therefore, the basic argument is that despite the eminence of the orthodox economic approach and its responses to the recent economic crises there are numerous contradictions, including weaknesses as advocated by Lin’s approach to developmental issues and the role of industrial policy, expressly with regard to the developing world.

MSc (Med) (Population-Based Field Epidemiology), Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand / Introduction: Studies of factors affecting infant mortality have rarely considered the role of birth order. Despite the recent gains in child mortality in Tanzania, infant mortality rate is still high (68 per 1000 live births) according to the Tanzania Demographic Health Survey (2004-5). This study investigated the risk factors associated with infant mortality in Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems area in rural Tanzania from January 2005 to December 2007 with specific reference to birth order, and identified causes of infant death for the study period. Materials and Methods: The study was a secondary analysis of existing data from the Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS). Child data for 8916 live births born from 1st January 2005 to 31st December 2007 were extracted for analysis. The binary outcome variable was infant mortality. Tables and graphs were used to describe the distribution of maternal demographic and study population characteristics. Poisson regression analyses were used to establish the association between infant mortality and exposure variables. Results: We recorded 562 infant deaths. Neonatal mortality rate was 38 per 1000 person-years while infant mortality rate was 70 per 1000 person-years. Birth order of 2nd to 5th was associated significantly with 22% reduced risk of infant mortality (IRR=0.78, 95%CI: 0.64, 0.96; p=0.02) compared with first births. The infant mortality rates per 1000 person-years for first births was 84, 2nd to 5th was 66 and sixth and higher was 71 per 1000 person-years. Male infants were 17% more at risk of infant deaths as compared to their female counterparts, but not statistically significant (IRR=1.17, 95%CI: 0.99, 1.38; p=0.06). Mothers aged 20 to 34 years had 19% reduced risk of infant death (IRR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.65, 1.00; p=0.05) as compared v to mother of less than 20 years of age. Singleton births had 71% reduced risk of infant mortality (IRR=0.29, 95%CI: 0.22, 0.37; p<0.001) compared with twin births. Mothers who did not attend antenatal care had 2% reduced risk of infant deaths (IRR=0.98, 95%CI: 0.49, 1.97) but not statistically significant compared with mothers who attended antenatal care. Mothers who delivered at home were 1.05 times more at risk of infant deaths but not statistically significant (IRR=1.05, 95%CI: 0.89, 1.24; p=0.56). Mothers who had no formal education were 1.41 times more likely to have infant deaths (IRR=1.41, 95%CI: 0.72, 2.79; p=0.32) as compared to those who had education beyond primary. When adjusted for sex, maternal age and twin births, second to fifth birth order had 20% reduced risk of infant death (IRR=0.80, 95%CI: 0.61, 1.03; p=0.08), but statistically not significant as compared to first births. Malaria (30%), Birth injury/asphyxia (16%), Pneumonia (10%), Premature and/or low birth weight (8%), Anaemia (3%) and Diarrhoeal diseases (2%) were the major causes of infant deaths from 2005 to 2007. Discussion and conclusion: First births and higher birth orders were associated with higher infant mortality. Twin birth was a risk factor for infant mortality. The health systems should be strengthened in providing care for mothers and child survival. We recommend that the high-risk group, first or sixth or higher pregnancies, need special care and the existing health management system may be strengthened to create awareness among potential mothers for seeking appropriate health care from the beginning of pregnancy. Also, antenatal care follow-up can be emphasized for high-risk mothers. Efforts to control mosquitoes must be accelerated in the Ifakara sub-district.

The nature and purposes of the post-apartheid South African foreign policy have become matters of intense debate and great confusion. This primarily emanates from the political reality of contemporary South Africa and the new global settings in general. The end of the cold war and apartheid provided an opportunity for foreign policy-makers and academics to re-assess South Africa's relations with the rest of the world. These developments raised questions for the democratic government. Where do such changes leave the new South Africa, and more importantly which foreign policy strategies serve it best? As a middle-range power, South Africa joined hands with other like-minded states in embracing multilateral mechanisms as tools of foreign policy.

ABSTRACT Indoor air pollution has been associated with acute lower respiratory infections amongst children less than five years old in developing countries. Very little is known about the potential role of behavioural change in reducing child indoor air pollution exposure. This thesis explores three questions: did people change their behaviours following exposure to an intervention that promoted the health benefits of behavioural change? Were changes in behaviour attributable to the intervention? What were the motivations and barriers to behavioural change? The evaluation included a quantitative and a qualitative study. The quantitative study utilised a quasiexperimental before-after design amongst an intervention village (n=98 households). Results were compared to a similar control village (n=121) that did not receive the intervention. Baseline data were collected during winter 2003 and follow-up data were collected during winter 2004 (12 months later). A qualitative evaluation, using two rounds of 4 focus group interviews each, was used to answer questions that emerged from the quantitative study. Indoor air quality - PM10, CO and CO (measured on the youngest child) - were measured over a 24 hour period in randomly selected households before and after the intervention in the intervention (n=36) and control (n=38) groups. After adjusting for confounding factors, there was no statistical association between having the received the intervention and the likelihood of burning outdoors at follow-up (OR=1.16; 95% CI 0.6-1.8). Indoor air quality data showed significant median reductions in PM10 (94-96%), CO (85-97%) and CO (child) (83- 95%) amongst households that burned outdoors compared to those that burned indoors. Results from the qualitative study suggest that motivations for outdoor burning included: health considerations, reaction to participating in the study, reduced drudgery and prestige. Barriers to outdoor burning included the need for space heating during winter, perceptions of low indoor air pollution risk and gender relations. This study highlights the potential for exposure reduction through behavioural change and is original for three reasons. It is the first behavioural intervention study designed to reduce indoor air pollution in a rural African setting. Secondly, it is the first intervention study in the indoor air pollution field to identify the factors that influenced behavioural change. Thirdly, it is one of the first studies to align debates about behavioural change in the field of indoor air pollution with those in the broader environmental health promotion literature.

Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / My dissertation consists of three papers on business cycles in developing countries. All the papers are different from each other and emphasize different aspects of understanding economic fluctuations in developing countries. The first paper is titled `Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries' (with Diego Comin, Norman Loayza and Luis Serven). This paper models the link between business cycle fluctuations in developed countries with fluctuations in developing countries. Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies tend to have large and persistent effects on developing countries. We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations from developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two important features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. Consistent with the model, we observe that the flow of technologies from developed to developing economies co-moves positively with output in both developed and developing countries. After calibrating the model to Mexico and the U.S., it can explain the following stylized facts: (i) U.S. and Mexican output co-move more than consumption; (ii) U.S. shocks have a larger effect on Mexico than in the U.S.; (iii) U.S. business cycles lead over medium term fluctuations in Mexico; (iv) Mexican consumption is more volatile than output. The second paper of my dissertation is based on a price setting survey conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan (Central Bank). The paper is titled `Price-Setting Discoveries: Results from a Developing Country' (with M. Ali Choudhary, Abdul Faheem, Nadeem Hanif, and Saima Naeem) present the results of 1189 structured face-to-face interviews about price-setting behavior of the formal firms in the manufacturing and services sector of Pakistan. The key findings of the survey are:the frequency of price change is high in Pakistan, lowering the real impact of monetary policy. Price rigidity is mainly explained by firms caring about relative prices and the persistence of shocks. The exchange-rate and cost shocks are more important than financial and demand shocks for both setting prices and also the readiness with which these shocks pass-through to the economy. Formal sector firms with connections to the informal sector, especially through demand, have a lower probability of price adjustment. The lack of taxes and compliance with tax regime, i.e. enforcement are held responsible for existence of the informal sector by formal sector firms. The results from this paper provided motivation for the last paper of my dissertation about understanding and modeling the business cycle fluctuations in a developing economy like Pakistan. The last paper of my dissertation is titled `Modeling Business Cycles in Pakistan: A First Step'. In this paper, I establish the nature of short-run fluctuations of the Pakistani economy over the period of 1960-2010. There have been significant changes in the nature of the Pakistani economy over the last few decades. Therefore, I focus my detailed analysis on the last few decades where it seems more appropriate to investigate the nature and causes of business cycles in Pakistan. Furthermore, I evaluate the performance of a typical RBC and an augmented RBC model with an exogenous FDI shock in explaining cyclical fluctuations experienced by the Pakistani economy. I find that a simple RBC model does badly in terms of matching relevant second order moments of short run fluctuations as depicted by the data. However, augmented RBC model performs better compared to the simple RBC model. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2012. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

Thesis advisor: Robert G. Murphy / Each year increasing levels of development assistance are provided to promote growth and reduce poverty in less developed countries. This is done, however, despite unresolved debates about the effectiveness of foreign aid. Investigating a new approach to the topic in 1999, Burnside and Dollar introduced a conceptual framework in which the effectiveness of aid is contingent on the economic and political policies of the countries receiving it. With its strong intuitive appeal, this hypothesis has attracted widespread attention, and yet the questions surrounding aid's effectiveness remain controversial. While the debate remains open-ended, this study reexamines Burnside and Dollar's specification with new and updated data and builds on their model with new econometric estimation techniques. Getting even a little closer to determining the true effects of foreign aid on developing countries is timely and valuable as calls and commitments for help are continuously rising. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2006. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: International Studies. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

This thesis focuses on the social exclusion of children of primary school age in India and Mozambique by examining two related aspects: the policies that have been adopted in both countries to tackle social exclusion and the indicators they have used to identify it. It is argued that existing policy indicators in both countries can provide a partial answer to the question of how far they have been able to address social exclusion but that indicators and analyses need to be more fine grained both to monitor social exclusion and provide leads as to how it can better addressed. The purpose is not to compare the two country analyses in order to evaluate how they differ in terms of magnitude or severity in the form of the exclusion. Rather, it is to understand the diverse nature of exclusion, and the different remedies and analyses that are required in the two countries. This analysis suggests that one size fits all policies, as once suggested by the World Bank, are inappropriate. The thesis develops an understanding of the concept of social exclusion and contrasts it with previous accounts of poverty in countries like India and Mozambique. It also adopts a normative Human Rights approach in viewing primary schooling as crucial to questions of social exclusion. It also shows how these key concepts can be related. Through the two country analyses offered in this thesis, it can be shown that because data collection processes are largely based on aggregate indicators, there is insufficient information to undertake an adequate analysis of social exclusion. In order to establish this point, official data sets are reanalyzed to see how far they can take us in helping to understand the complex nature of social exclusion. In particular, it will be shown that the indicators related to the education status of children are insufficiently disaggregated to enable an improved understanding of the characteristics of children that continue to be excluded. From this analysis it will be argued that a broader list of indicators needs to be developed related to the dynamics at the level of the school, community and household. However, given that social exclusion may be structured differently in various contexts it is argued that participatory research is required that facilitates the assessment and analysis of these dynamics by all the key stakeholders, including children, at the various levels. In particular, policy makers fail to involve children in the process of assessing and analyzing the reasons for exclusion, and therefore do not benefit from their perceptions and insights. Further analysis of the various dynamics which relate to exclusion provide useful insights to better understand the policy and programmatic initiatives that effectively address the social exclusion of children from primary school.

Photocopy of typescript. / Digitized by Kansas Correctional Industries

Typescript (photocopy). / Digitized by Kansas Correctional Industries