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Donor funding and crowding out of public spending: Evidence from low and middle-income countriesShine, Ritta Sabbas January 2015 (has links)
In many low-resource settings agricultural output and public spending on agriculture are in decline, raising questions about the effectiveness of agricultural aid. To understand why these trends are occurring, we examined factors that affect the share of government spending on agriculture. Using a sample of 66 low- and middle-income countries from 1996-2010 we use dynamic panel regression models to explore: (1) the impact of agricultural aid on public expenditure to agriculture, and (2) the impact of aid on domestic resource mobilisation, which indirectly affects public expenditures. Our results provide evidence of a strong substitution effect, especially in low-income countries, suggesting aid to agriculture is treated as fungible. We also found evidence that aid loans resulted in higher tax revenues, while aid grants decreased tax effort, which may account for decreasing public investment in agriculture. To improve aid effectiveness, donors need to work with recipients to understand country needs and the fiscal environment of the receiving government.
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The relationship between infrastructure and foreign investment inflows to South AfricaTaole, Tšepo Ntšoane January 2018 (has links)
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has emerged as a major source of external capital for developing countries in Asia, South and Central America and Sub-Saharan Africa. However, Sub-Saharan Africa's share of global FDI compares unfavourably with that garnered by other developing regions in the world. Until recently, South Africa has been the top recipient of FDI inflows among SSA countries as it has benefitted from the relatively stable macroeconomic and political environment. South Africa is, however, afflicted by significant deficits in the quality and quantity of economic and social infrastructure. Empirical studies on the significance of infrastructure development and FDI inflows at country level in SSA are limited, as are empirical studies on the determinants of FDI inflows to SSA countries. It is against this backdrop that this research sets out to examine the relationship between infrastructure and FDI inflows to South Africa between 1970 and 2015. Secondary time series data on indicators for infrastructure quality, infrastructure investment, market size, financial market development, macroeconomic stability, and trade openness was collected for empirical analysis. In accordance with time series analysis of macro-economic data, unit root and cointegration tests were performed prior to estimation of the error correction model. The results of the research indicate that infrastructure quality, financial market development, trade openness, and market size all had a positive impact on FDI inflows in the long run, although significantly so in the case of the latter two indicators. Infrastructure investment stability had a negative but insignificant impact, while inflation had a negative but statistically significant impact on FDI inflows. In the short run, only trade openness and financial market development had a positive but statistically insignificant impact on FDI inflows. The other indicators reflected a negative and insignificant impact on FDI inflows. The results of the research suggest that besides advancing macroeconomic stability, the South African government should also foster inclusive economic growth and development which can enhance the country's attractiveness for FDI over the long-term.
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Effect of transaction costs on international remittance flows from developed countries: A Sub-Saharan contextWahito, Isaac January 2018 (has links)
Remittances play a major role both at a household and a macro-level especially in developing countries. They are associated with benefits such as of economic growth and employment opportunities for a country, while at the household level, remittances are a stable source of income in provision of basic needs such as of food, clothing, shelter and education. Remittance costs have been viewed as a major deterrent to higher volumes of remittance inflows to a country and tend to encourage the use of the cheaper informal channels, which have adverse consequences. This study investigates the drivers of remittance transaction costs and the subsequent effect of transaction costs on remittance flows using bilateral data between several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the United Kingdom over the period 2011 to 2014. Remittance costs are measured as a percentage of the amount remitted. Using multivariate generalised least squares analysis of panel data, this study tested the first hypothesis that financial development, banking concentration and financial risk of a migrant's home country influence transaction costs. Secondly, the study tested the hypothesis that transaction costs have a negative relationship with remittance inflows into the countries. The specific effect of transaction costs on remittance flows is investigated alongside other variables which have been identified to influence remittance flows. These include; the stock of migrants in the host country and host and home country income levels proxied by gross domestic product per capita. The results of random effects estimations show that financial development and bank concentration have a positive and statistically significant relationship with transaction costs. That is, a higher level of financial development does not necessarily lower transaction costs but a high banking concentration, which infers lower competition in the banking sector, drives remittance costs up. On the effect of transaction costs on remittance flows into the countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the study found a negative and significant relationship. That is, a higher cost in remitting funds via formal channels reduces the remittance flows and as such, it thus increases the probability of the use of informal channels. The stock of migrants is also found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on remittances, meaning that a higher number of migrants in a developed country leads to higher volumes of remittances to the migrants' home countries. The proxies for incomes were found to be insignificant. The implications of the significance of remittance costs are noteworthy as they add evidence on the need to cut remittance costs by formal channels significantly to three percent of the total amount remitted by global development institutions.
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Is renewable engery a suitable investment choice for South African non-bank institutional investors?Molewa, Kholofelo January 2017 (has links)
The research set out to examine the investment & economic suitability of Renewable Energy ("RE") assets for South African institutional investors. Data was collected through a series of structured and semi structured interviews and further triangulated and cross-checked through a thorough literature review of available policy documentation and academic literature. The limitations concerning this study have much to do with the nascent nature of the renewable energy program and therefore the lack of availability of hard economic and financial historical data. Further there is very little academic literature on renewable energy investing pertaining to a South African context. To mitigate some of the risks presented by the aforementioned limitations, interviewees were mainly subject-matter experts on the issue of RE investing and therefore provided key insights through a series of structured and semi-structured interviews. Within a South Africa specific context, there is very little academic material dealing with RE or infrastructure finance and investment. The implications of this study are therefore crucial in helping set the basis for the development of future theories around this and related topics. Interview discussions and review of other material revealed key themes, which allowed the researcher to discern some key findings: Firstly, there's a cautious but emerging consensus that the economic and financial features of RE assets make them suitable (and even attractive) for consideration in asset class allocation decisions. Further and related: the merging view was that RE assets could offer the benefit of both reducing risk and increasing expected returns within a given portfolio. A key related sub-theme and finding was the need to establish a common set of nomenclature, which would describe and ultimately help benchmark the economic and financial features of RE assets – the ability to benchmark financial and economic data being a key aspect of the asset allocation framework. Secondly data collected indicated that there is strong institutional support for government's energy policy and how it has been implemented to date. Thirdly, in working out the suitability of RE assets investors tend to default to comparable proxies such as bonds, equities, REITS. The emerging theme coming out of the data is that RE assets are likely to resemble fixed income assets in their financial and economic characteristics. Lastly, for all the emerging consensus in support of the government's RE policy, many investors seem to hedge their optimism and remain generally unsure and in some instances sceptical of the overall sustainability of the program, citing the fact that there are still too many unknowns regarding RE assets and their respective futures. This research therefore has some useful practical applications for institutional investors, hopefully further demystifying a sector that could be a lynchpin of the South African economy for some time to come.
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Contemporary insights into the dynamics of foreign direct investment in ZambiaNgubo, Nompumelelo January 2016 (has links)
Foreign direct investment ("FDI") has been acclaimed by authors and policy makers alike to be one of the pivotal interventions that African countries need in order to support the capital investment required to sustain economic growth, alleviate poverty, and achieve the Millennium Development Goals in the region. This research report aims to explain the evolution of the modern Zambian FDI environment and describe the dynamics at play in this thriving, yet poverty-stricken economy. Over the last 25 years, Zambia has made remarkable progress in transforming its investment climate in order to successfully attract of increased inflows of FDI over time. The primary interventions that brought about these changes in the country's investment climate involved privatization and liberalization policies of the 1990s, institutional reforms of the early 2000s, and the more recent establishment of the Zambian Development Agency for the facilitation of all local and foreign investment. As a result, the international community responded with growing interest in the Zambian economy. Despite having surpassed other African countries in attracting increasing levels of FDI, Zambia does not fully portray the perceived benefits of an economy experiencing an upswing in investment inflows i.e. – reduced unemployment, increased income, infrastructure upgrades, skills and knowledge transfer etc. The economy is still heavily dependent on one sector – copper mining, yet there remains a wealth of untapped natural resources which hold potential to improve Zambia's social and economic status – fresh water, arable land and gemstones. Key challenges in the country range across the spectrum from inadequate infrastructure to labour market challenges as well as the consequence of rising foreign firm entry – crowding out of local investment. The report suggests key policy interventions to be considered should be aimed at infrastructural service delivery improvement through privatization, leveling of the playing field for local and international firms to improve domestic market competitiveness and a focus on skills and knowledge transfer obligations of foreign firms.
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The sustainability of microfinance institutions in SouthLekatsa, Teboho January 2014 (has links)
Microfinance targets the poor and very poor, both in urban and rural areas. It has become a common method of poverty alleviation in many developing countries. Several microfinance institutions have adopted a social mission to eradicate poverty by providing credit to the poor. In the past, microfinance organizations used to focus on farmers in rural areas. Modern microfinance programs are focused on the population that is largely neglected by the formal financial sector, specifically women. Due to the perceived risk in this type of uncollateralized lending, private equity markets are not keen on financing microfinance institutions. Furthermore, microfinance institutions are seen as socially motivated as opposed to being financially motivated. For that reason, their profitability and sustainability has come under question in the last decade. Two approaches to the issue of sustainability exist. The dominant institutionist approach argues that microfinance institutions should focus on being sustainable as this will improve their chances of alleviating poverty. The welfarist approach disagrees with this view by arguing that focusing on sustainability will result in the neglect of the poorest of the poor. This study analyses the sustainability of microfinance in South Africa by using a case study research approach. The study explores the challenges to sustainability in South Africa. The results of the study indicate that the microfinance institutions are not profitable nor self- sufficient. The most notable challenge to this sustainability is the high personnel costs. South African MFIs experience higher operating costs than their African counterparts. The study also indicates that the more financially sound microfinance institutions have a lower level of depth outreach than the more subsidy dependent institutions.
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Sensemaking and sensegiving apabilities and resilience: a study of a manufacturing MSME in KenyaKirigi, Linda January 2015 (has links)
MSMEs play a very crucial role in the economies of developing countries. They contribute towards GDP; reduce the unemployment levels and bridging the huge gap that divides the rich and the poor. They however face numerous risks such as commercial risks, financial risks, operational risks and regulatory and compliance risks to name a few, which threaten their existence. In Kenya, many of the MSMEs do not survive beyond a year due to the lack of resilience to these risks. Furthermore, lack of proper managerial expertise in creating strategies that are well suited to mitigate these risks contribute to their demise. Much has been said about the risks that MSMEs face in Kenya. However, there is limited research on the strategies used to mitigate those risks and the decision making process that leads up to the strategies that are employed. This research therefore aimed to bridge that gap and investigate how MSMEs respond to risk, why they respond the way they do and how they can build resilience. This was done using sensemaking theory to explore the sensemaking and sensegiving capabilities of MSMEs in Kenya. A single case study of a manufacturing MSME in Kenya was used. The overall proposition of the study was that good sensemaking and sensegiving capabilities would assist MSMEs build resilience. Pattern- matching was used to match the expected pattern (theories such as enactment theory and 4 I framework) to the observed pattern which was obtained through the data collected from the company. The findings suggested that indeed good sensemaking and sensegiving capabilities do build resilience as the risk management processes and sense making and sensegiving capabilities of the selected company was a close fit to the expected pattern. The areas where the two patterns did not match, highlighted areas in which the MSME could make improvements and in so doing build resilience.
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Is public debt boosting economic growth in SADC?Sogoni, Zanele January 2014 (has links)
The World Bank estimates that Africa's inadequate infrastructure decreases productivity by around 40 per cent every year and reduces national economic growth by 2 per cent annually. Such disadvantages hinder private sector investment, which is a key driver of job and wealth creation. Financing the development of infrastructure in an appropriate manner has been a leading topic in the continents development agenda. In order to remedy the infrastructure deficit problem, more and more African countries are increasing their public debts by borrowing in the international markets to finance their infrastructure deficits in the hope that it will ultimately spur economic growth and attract more investment. SSA's access to the international markets has grown significantly, facilitated by easing global financial conditions. By end March 2014, 13 countries had issued international sovereign bonds, for reasons that include infrastructure building. The sub-Saharan Africa's region's access to international markets has come under much attention lately as debt levels are rising with fears that they may reach the unsustainable pre –HIPC levels. For example, Zambia's total debt burden stood at an unsustainably high USD5.4 billion in 2005 – equivalent to 74% of the country's GDP and almost 208% of its foreign exchange earnings (IHS Global Insights, 2014). The attainment of debt relief under the IMF and World Bank's Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) in early 2006 dramatically decreased the country's debt holdings to less than 25% of GDP. However, in the third quarter of 2012, the government issued its first Eurobond and raised debt capital of USD 750 million. This was followed by a USD 1 billion Eurobond issue in the second quarter of 2014 (IHS Global Insights, 2014) with the stated intention of using the funds for infrastructural development and maintenance. However, according to the latest IMF statement on Zambia released on 6 June 2014, Zambia's macroeconomic situation, though potentially promising, is in trouble and needs urgent fixing. It appears that the government of Zambia wants an IMF funding arrangement, possibly a bailout (Zambian Economist, 2014). In the face of mounting evidence that access to the international capital markets and rising public debt are more likely to have enhanced vulnerability than growth, this paper examines the determinants of economic growth in a panel of 15 countries. It examines the impact of external debt, total public debt and infrastructure expenditure on economic growth in the southern African region over a period of 10 years (between 2004 and 2014). The findings suggest an inverse relationship between external debt and total public debt against economic growth. The findings also suggest that there is a positive relationship between infrastructure development and economic growth amongst the countries in the southern Africa region. These relationships were found to be insignificant, suggesting that other factors outside of the variables of infrastructure expenditure, external debt and total public debt are influencing economic growth (or slowdown) in the region. The paper also examines the current debt situation in the 15 countries and policy considerations are also presented.
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The nexus between financial inclusion and financial development in Zimbabwe (2009-2015)Moyo, Onesimo Mazai January 2018 (has links)
The study aims to establish the nexus between financial inclusion and financial development in Zimbabwe covering the period from 2009 to 2015. Using descriptive statistics including correlation analysis, t-tests, and graphical analysis, the study revealed that there is a positive relationship between financial inclusion and financial development. The study however established that the relationship is relatively weak. The positive relationship is being driven by expansion of the banking sector into previously marginalised and unbanked markets, riding on the increase in financial and mobile technology based banking products. The weak relationship is explained by the current high levels of financial exclusion and the increasing levels of financial dis-intermediation occurring in Zimbabwe. This is further explained by high levels of informalisation of the economy and the deterioration in the microeconomic environment which then resulted in cash shortages and creation of quasi-currencies with the potential to further dent market confidence. People then preferred to transact outside the formal financial system. The study further established that financial inclusion, through mobile and financial technology has great potential to support financial development in Zimbabwe. This is premised on the established high mobile penetration rate and the impact that mobile and financial technology has had on financial inclusion in the short period since 2012. It is also established that the negative governance factors, (as ranked by the World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI)), such as political stability, rule of law, regulatory quality and government effectiveness had largely a strong and significant relationship with financial inclusion and financial development. These negative governance factors need to be addressed by policy makers because they have the potential to inhibit local and international trust and market confidence in Zimbabwe's financial system. The loss of trust and market confidence impacts negatively on effective execution of both financial inclusion and financial development goals. It is imperative that interventions to leverage financial development through financial inclusion must embrace developments in the financial technology and mobile technology sectors due to the high mobile penetration rate and potential to lower transaction costs and foster financial inclusion. Policy makers must devise regulatory policies that foster infrastructure sharing, interoperability and interconnectivity of MNOs mobile and financial technology platforms to increase levels of financial inclusion and financial development. The established nexus makes it imperative that a national financial inclusion strategy must be complemented by a supportive financial development strategy for optimum results.
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An analysis of the potential socio-economic impacts of shale gas development in South AfricaTukwayo, Yonela January 2016 (has links)
The South African government is in the process of considering shale gas exploration applications in the Karoo basin. There are conflicting views on whether the development of the resource will be to the detriment or benefit of the South African economy. This paper makes use of a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model adapted for the South African energy sector to analyse the potential socio-economic impacts of the development of shale gas. Simulation results indicate potential negative impacts on GDP contribution by all the sectors simulated, except the natural gas sector and the Gas-to-Liquid petroleum sector, as well as potential negative impacts on employment. The negative impacts on growth and employment are likely to worsen poverty and inequality. Potential impacts on trade are negative as the trade deficit increases. In terms of environmental impacts, the uptake of gas would decrease CO2 emissions. All results are compared to the baseline scenario. Based on these results, it is recommended that the decision on whether the development should go ahead or not ought to take into account the potential socio-economic costs, and potential ways to hedge against them.
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