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O uso de modelos ocultos de Markov no estudo do fluxo de rios intermitentesBarbosa, Bruno de Lima 04 September 2014 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2014-09-04 / Neste trabalho, apresentamos nosso entendimento acerca do artigo de Aksoy (2003), executando uma aplica??o do modelo por ele apresentado, com o intuito de gerar dados de fluxos intermitentes, a partir de bancos de dados brasileiros. Em seguida, constru?mos um modelo oculto de Markov como uma nova proposta de abordagem para o problema. Nele utilizamos distribui??es gama para simular os aumentos e decr?scimos dos fluxos dos rios. / In this work, we present our understanding about the article of Aksoy [1], which uses
Markov chains to model the flow of intermittent rivers. Then, we executed an application
of his model in order to generate data for intermittent streamflows, based on a
data set of Brazilian streams.
After that, we build a hidden Markov model as a proposed new approach to the
problem of simulation of such flows. We used the Gamma distribution to simulate the
increases and decreases in river flows, along with a two-state Markov chain.
The motivation for us to use a hidden Markov model comes from the possibility
of obtaining the same information that the Aksoy?s model provides, but using a single
tool capable of treating the problem as a whole, and not through multiple independent
processes
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