In oil/gas and chemical industries, dynamics is one of the most essential characteristics of any process. Time-dependent response is involved in most steps of both the physical/engineering processes and the equipment performance. The conventional Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is unable to address the time dependent effect in such dynamic processes. In this dissertation, a methodology of Dynamic Operational Risk Assessment (DORA) is developed for operational risk analysis in oil/gas and chemical industries. Given the assumption that the component performance state determines the value of parameters in process dynamics equations, the DORA probabilistic modeling integrates stochastic modeling and process dynamics modeling to evaluate operational risk. The stochastic system-state trajectory is modeled based on the abnormal behavior or failure of the components. For each of the possible system-state trajectories, a process dynamics evaluation is carried out to check whether process variables, e.g., level, flow rate, temperature, pressure, or chemical concentration, remain in their desirable regions. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to calculate the probability of process variable exceeding the safety boundaries. Component testing/inspection intervals and repair time are critical parameters to define the system-state configuration; and play an important role for evaluating the probability of operational failure. Sensitivity analysis is suggested to assist selecting the DORA probabilistic modeling inputs. In this study, probabilistic approach to characterize uncertainty associated with QRA is proposed to analyze data and experiment results in order to enhance the understanding of uncertainty and improve the accuracy of the risk estimation. Different scenarios on an oil/gas separation system were used to demonstrate the application of DORA method, and approaches are proposed for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Case study on a knockout drum in the distillation unit of a refinery process shows that the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimation is reduced through Bayesian updating of the generic reliability information using plant specific real time testing or reliability data. Case study on an oil/gas separator component inspection interval optimization illustrates the cost benefit analysis in DORA framework and how DORA probabilistic modeling can be used as a tool for decision making. DORA not only provides a framework to evaluate the dynamic operational risk in oil/gas and chemical industries, but also guides the process design and optimization of the critical parameters such as component inspection intervals.

Oil/gas and petrochemical plants are complicated and dynamic in nature. Dynamic characteristics include ageing of equipment/components, season changes, stochastic processes, operator response times, inspection and testing time intervals, sequential dependencies of equipment/components and timing of safety system operations, all of which are time dependent criteria that can influence dynamic processes. The conventional risk assessment methodologies can quantify dynamic changes in processes with limited capacity. Therefore, it is important to develop method that can address time-dependent effects. The primary objective of this study is to propose a risk assessment methodology for dynamic systems. In this study, a new technique for dynamic operational risk assessment is developed based on the Bayesian networks, a structure optimal suitable to organize cause-effect relations. The Bayesian network graphically describes the dependencies of variables and the dynamic Bayesian network capture change of variables over time. This study proposes to develop dynamic fault tree for a chemical process system/sub-system and then to map it in Bayesian network so that the developed method can capture dynamic operational changes in process due to sequential dependency of one equipment/component on others. The developed Bayesian network is then extended to the dynamic Bayesian network to demonstrate dynamic operational risk assessment. A case study on a holdup tank problem is provided to illustrate the application of the method. A dryout scenario in the tank is quantified. It has been observed that the developed method is able to provide updated probability different equipment/component failure with time incorporating the sequential dependencies of event occurrence. Another objective of this study is to show parallelism of Bayesian network with other available risk assessment methods such as event tree, HAZOP, FMEA. In this research, an event tree mapping procedure in Bayesian network is described. A case study on a chemical reactor system is provided to illustrate the mapping procedure and to identify factors that have significant influence on an event occurrence. Therefore, this study provides a method for dynamic operational risk assessment capable of providing updated probability of event occurrences considering sequential dependencies with time and a model for mapping event tree in Bayesian network.