<p> We address a functional analysis-based method for the estimation of driving-forces from nonlinear dynamic systems in this thesis. The driving-forces account for the perturbation inputs or the irregular variations in the internal variables of a dynamic system. These inputs are hidden from the observer most of the time if not always. Reconstruction of such inputs when there is too little or no prior knowledge to build a mathematical model to describe the system's behavior is an important problem in many cases in physics and engineering. To this end, we propose a method for the recursive estimation of driving-forces without the availability of an analytic model of the unknown physical phenomenon. </p> <p> The underlying idea of the proposed estimator is to predict the observables onestep ahead of the current time instant, and then retrieve the driving-force from the prediction error. This idea is embodied by predicting the observables using a bank of echo state networks (ESN) in an online fashion, extracting the raw estimates from the prediction error, and then finally smoothing these estimates in separate adaptive filtering stages. The approach described herein distinguishes itself from the similar methods in the literature in its adaptivity and its greater immunity against varying environmental uncertainties. The adaptive nature of the estimator enables us to retrieve both slowly and rapidly varying driving-forces accurately in presence of model or sensor noises, which are illustrated by experiments in the subsequent chapters of this thesis. In particular, some chaotic/stochastic nonlinear models are studied in controlled experiments. The estimation quality of the proposed approach is judged with a reference to the Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound as a theoretical lower limit on the estimation error. </p> <p> The Bayesian and Maximum-Likelihood (ML) methods are also studied for the estimation of driving-forces when partial or full information is available on the mathematical description of the unknown system. These methods serve as practical merits of assessment for the proposed driving-force estimator. Moreover, a direct performance comparison between the proposed estimator and a favorable estimation scheme of a similar kind is provided, which confirms the advantages of the proposed approach. The proposed method is tested on a real-world application on the extraction of sun's magnetic flux from the sunspot time series. It is illustrated that the results obtained by the proposed estimator are in close agreement with the results of two other analytical studies. </p> <p> Finally, a solution to a real problem in practice is proposed using the method. Specifically, extracting the signature of a small random target embedded in the sea surface is addressed using the live recorded data collected with the McMaster IPIX radar. This is the first specific realization of a radar scene analyzer for the cognitive radar reception in the literature to the author's best knowledge. </p> <p> The material in this thesis is presented in a sandwich thesis format, combining two peer reviewed, published journal articles, and another journal article that is prepared for submission. An additional chapter that provides the background material is included for the completeness of the presentation. </p> / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

International Telemetering Conference Proceedings / October 30-November 02, 1995 / Riviera Hotel, Las Vegas, Nevada / Deutsche Telekom has been operating different flight models for several years. A Satellite Control Center (SCC) was designed and installed to support the operation of the satellite systems DFS Kopernikus and TV-Sat. The DFS Kopernikus system is composed of three flight models and the satellite system TV-Sat has one flight model. The aim was to design an SCC and ground stations in a way, enabling the operation of satellites and groundstations by only two operators at the main control room. The operators are well trained but not scientifically educated. The high integrated SCC supports the operators with a state of the art man-machine-interface. Software executes all necessary tasks for spacecraft- and ground station control. Interaction in front of communication equipment is not necessary. The operation of satellites is a business with a high risk potential. This paper presents the design of a Satellite Control Center with high system availability.

A maioria dos estudos realizados sobre moonpools existentes em embarcações sempre objetivou a redução das amplitudes de oscilação da água interna a estes, pois sua usual utilização é a passagem de linhas de produção, equipamentos e mergulhadores. Estes estudos mostram que com a mudança da geometria interna do moonpool é possível alterar o comportamento de oscilação da água interna ao mesmo. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo estudar o acoplamento entre o movimento vertical da água interna ao moonpool e a dinâmica em heave do corpo flutuante. Os adimensionais que regem o problema são apontados. Através das observações e conclusões em relação aos estudos numéricos e ensaios experimentais realizados, é proposto um modelo massa-mola-amortecedor representando o acoplamento entre o movimento vertical da água interna ao moonpool e a dinâmica em heave do corpo flutuante. / Most published studies related to moonpool existent in vessels always had as it main objective the reduction of vertical oscillation of the water inside the moonpool, as its usual function is the passage of production lines, equipments and divers. These studies show that, through the change of the moonpool\'s internal geometry, it is possible to modify the behavior of vertical oscillation of the water inside the moonpool. The present work has the objective of studying coupling between the vertical movement of the water inside the moonpool and the heave dynamics of the floating-body. The nondimensional numbers that guide the problem are indicated. Through the observations and conclusions in relation to the numerical studies and experimental analysis made, it is proposed a mass-spring-dumper model representing the coupling between the vertical movement of the water inside the moonpool and the heave dynamics of the floating-body.

In Canada, access to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination is limited with an outcome of long patient waiting time. It is reported that the current median waiting time for MRI examination in Saskatoon is almost double the target for waiting time, which may aggravate the disease. This research is towards reducing the waiting time of patients for MRI examination in Canada by applying an improved management. As a first step of this effort, a comprehensive model of MRI booking and serving system is needed. The city of Saskatoon was taken as an example and the MRI booking and serving system in the city was studied. The common tools (queuing theory, system dynamics (SD) and discrete event dynamics simulation (DES)) were compared and it is found that DES is more suitable, in particular Petri nets (PNs), deemed to be the best choice for the purpose of this thesis. The model in this research was constructed on the basis of Hierarchical Coloured Petri nets (HCPNs), a combination of two extended PNs: Coloured PNs (CPNs) and Hierarchical PNs (HPNs). The model is able to simulate and predict patients' waiting times. Given that the structure of the model developed by HCPNs is still too complex, two extensions to CPNs, Ordered CPNs (OCPNs) and Prioritized HCPNs (PHCPNs), were proposed in this study to reduce the complexity of the model. Validation of the model was performed using the data of Saskatoon Health Region - Royal University Hospital. The results have shown that the proposed model can effectively describe the real system. The model has potential applications in decision-making for the selection of an optimal booking strategy to shorten waiting time and in the prediction of possible waiting time of the system in the future, which may assist MRI administrators in the management of medical resources and may greatly improve the quality of MRI service.

This thesis outlines the dynamic system analysis of a 3D Ultrasonic neuro- navigation system for use in motion capture studies. The work entails the development and implementation of methods for achieving the same. The objective of the project is to come up with an accurate dynamic 3D ultrasonic neuro-navigation system which can deliver up to sub mm accuracy within the operating workspace for use in image guided neuro surgery. The major focus of the work is to come up with a second order Kalman filter which can take out the outliers occurring in a static system in real time, thereby making the system more robust and accurate. Once the filter achieves the requisites, it can be integrated into the current motion tracking software which allows for the real time tracking of transmitters, hence the points of interest.

L’hémophilie est une maladie génétique se traduisant par la déficience des facteurs VIII et IX de la coagulation et conduisant à une tendance hémorragique. L’intensité des traitements substitutifs en facteur VIII et IX est définie essentiellement sur le taux basal du facteur déficitaire et non pas sur la capacité propre à chaque patient à générer de la thrombine qui est l’enzyme clé dans la formation du caillot de fibrine. Le test de génération de thrombine pourrait être utilisé pour permettre une individualisation du traitement anti-hémophilique. En effet, le taux de facteur VIII ou IX nécessaire à la normalisation de la génération de thrombine est potentiellement variable d’un patient à l’autre pour une même sévérité d’hémophilie. On peut donc se demander quelle approche expérimentale permettrait de mettre en exergue le lien entre taux de facteur anti-hémophilique et la génération de thrombine. Est-il possible de modéliser mathématiquement la coagulation pour obtenir une relation, soit explicite, soit implicite, entre taux de facteurs et génération de thrombine ? Les modèles existants permettent-ils d'obtenir une telle relation ? Une vaste campagne expérimentale a donc été menée pour mettre en place une base de données qui a permis d’identifier les facteurs déterminants de la génération de thrombine et la relation entre génération de thrombine et taux de facteur anti-hémophilique, de définir leurs valeurs de références, ainsi que d’évaluer et de paramétrer de manière sujet-spécifique des modèles mathématiques de la coagulation. / Haemophilia is a genetic disease corresponding to the deficiency of coagulation factor VIII or IX and leading to a bleeding tendency. The current substitutive treatment is defined essentially by the basal level of deficient factor and not the individual capacity to generate thrombin, a key enzyme of the clot formation. The thrombin generation assay could help in the individualisation of the anti-haemophilia treatment. Indeed, the factor VIII or IX level needed to normalise the thrombin generation vary potentially from one patient to another for a same degree of severity. We can wonder which experimental approach could emphasise the relation between level of anti-haemophilic factor and thrombin generation. Is it possible to mathematically model coagulation to obtain a relation, either explicit, or implicit, between factor level and thrombin generation? Could existing models provide this relation? An extensive experimental campaign was carried out to build a database that has been used to identify the determinant coagulation factors of thrombin generation and the individual relation between thrombin generation and anti-haemophilic factor level, to define their reference values, and also to evaluate and parametrise subject-specifically mathematical models of the coagulation cascade

A maioria dos estudos realizados sobre moonpools existentes em embarcações sempre objetivou a redução das amplitudes de oscilação da água interna a estes, pois sua usual utilização é a passagem de linhas de produção, equipamentos e mergulhadores. Estes estudos mostram que com a mudança da geometria interna do moonpool é possível alterar o comportamento de oscilação da água interna ao mesmo. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo estudar o acoplamento entre o movimento vertical da água interna ao moonpool e a dinâmica em heave do corpo flutuante. Os adimensionais que regem o problema são apontados. Através das observações e conclusões em relação aos estudos numéricos e ensaios experimentais realizados, é proposto um modelo massa-mola-amortecedor representando o acoplamento entre o movimento vertical da água interna ao moonpool e a dinâmica em heave do corpo flutuante. / Most published studies related to moonpool existent in vessels always had as it main objective the reduction of vertical oscillation of the water inside the moonpool, as its usual function is the passage of production lines, equipments and divers. These studies show that, through the change of the moonpool\'s internal geometry, it is possible to modify the behavior of vertical oscillation of the water inside the moonpool. The present work has the objective of studying coupling between the vertical movement of the water inside the moonpool and the heave dynamics of the floating-body. The nondimensional numbers that guide the problem are indicated. Through the observations and conclusions in relation to the numerical studies and experimental analysis made, it is proposed a mass-spring-dumper model representing the coupling between the vertical movement of the water inside the moonpool and the heave dynamics of the floating-body.

This dissertation focuses on the modelling, identification and the parameter estimation for the co-infection of HIV-1 and M. tuberculosis. Many research papers in this field focus primarily on HIV, but multiple infections are explored here, as it is common in many individuals infected by HIV. Tuberculosis is also responsible for the highest number of casualties per year in the group of HIV-infected individuals. A model is proposed to indicate the populations of both pathogen as well as key information factors, such as the overall infected cell population and antigen-presenting cells. Simulations are made to indicate the growth and decline in cell-type numbers for a specific individual. Such simulations would provide a means for further, well-founded investigation into appropriate treatment strategies. One previous such model developed by Kirschner is used to obtain a nominal parameter set. Furthermore, the nominal set is then used in conjunction with real-world samples provided by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa, to solidify the credibility of the model in the practical case. This is achieved via simulations and employs parameter estimation techniques, namely the Nelder-Mead cost-function method. An identifiability study of the model is also done. Conclusions drawn from this study include the result that the treatment of M. tuberculosis does not affect the course of HIV-1 progression in a notable way, and that the model can indeed be used in the process of better understanding the disease profile over time of infected individuals. / Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering / MEng / unrestricted

This thesis is concerned with characterizing the quality of Hidden Markov modeling when learning from limited data. It introduces a new perspective on different sources of errors to describe the impact of undermodeling. Our view is that modeling errors can be decomposed into two primary sources of errors: the approximation error and the estimation error. This thesis takes a first step towards exploring the approximation error of low order HMMs that best approximate the true system of a HMM. We introduce the notion minimality and show that best approximations of the true system with complexity greater or equal to the order of a minimal system are actually equivalent realizations. Understanding this further allows us to explore integer lumping and to present a new way named weighted lumping to find realizations. We also show that best approximations of order strictly less than that of a minimal realization are truly approximations; they are incapable of mimicking the true system exactly. Our work then proves that the resulting approximation error is non-decreasing as the model order decreases, verifying the intuitive idea that increasingly simplified models are less and less descriptive of the true system.

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