Ph.D. (Mathematical Statistics) / This thesis considers the modelling and prediction of consumer credit risk events. We model consumer credit risk events (like a missed payment, a repayment or a default) by means of a discrete, real time, staggered entry counting process. Merton s (1974) structural approach is the foundation of numerous credit-risk models, as well as the Basel capital accords. The underlying assumptions of this approach are that both liability and asset levels are observable to some extent and that default, which occurs if liability levels are larger than asset levels, can occur only once. These assumptions are inappropriate for consumer credit risk, where asset and liability levels are not observable and multiple defaults may occur. We nd that the so-called reduced-form models initially developed by Artzner and Delbaen (1995) and Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), which impose no structure on the default event, are better suited to model and predict consumer credit risk. All reduced-form models can be represented as counting processes. Counting processes are continuous in nature, so we discretize these processes before applying them to the regularly spaced, discrete monthly data. We show that the use of survival analysis tech- niques such as Cox s (1972) proportional hazard model, which is a special case in counting processes, are not well suited to model credit risk. This is because survival analysis is mostly concerned with the prediction of the time until a single event occurs. Accordingly, in survival analysis the time domain used is event time . Hence, all observations need to be aligned to some starting time. We prefer to work in calendar time and are concerned with the timing (in calendar time) of multiple events. We identify and implement a dynamic, discrete statistical model based on calendar time that accounts for staggered entries, multiple entries into and exits from the portfolio, as well as multiple default events on an account level. This approach, from Arjas and Haara (1987), makes use of both idiosyncratic and systematic covariates, which facilitates stress-testing. This approach has, to our knowledge, never been applied to credit risk before and we apply it to a mortgage loan portfolio of a major bank in South Africa.

Prof. S. Kruger

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There is increasing awareness that mental health consumers may have important information for the development of services. In this qualitative study, I interviewed 10 consumers with the purpose of exploring in depth their experiences in interacting with service providers in the greater Vancouver area. Using constant comparative analysis, I found that the data suggested participants’ experiences of recovery developed largely out of connecting with other consumers rather than with service providers. Current services were portrayed as primarily reliant on the use of psychiatric medication. Consumers pointed to numerous difficulties in seeking help, including a lack of treatment alternatives, stigma and isolation. They also presented a strong demand for services and policies that promote an individual sense of recovery and support their fundamental human rights. Mental health service providers need to critically reflect on their current practices and policies, and how they may negatively impact their clients' lives by failing to properly listen to their narratives, grievances, experiences and perceptions. This study suggests further inclusion of consumer's views and participation in services to foster collaborative, recovery-oriented practices. / Arts, Faculty of / Social Work, School of / Graduate

Over the past decade there has been a shift in marketing spend from above the line advertising, to below the line advertising commonly referred to as promotions. This has been brought about by recessionary economic conditions, increased competition, rising media costs and long term profitability prospects. Many fast moving consumer goods’ (FMCG) companies are shifting a large portion of their marketing spend from advertising to sales promotion. This has occurred because of consumers becoming more prone to deals, declining brand loyalty and the growing power of major retail chains. Sales promotion spend can comprise of as much as 50% of the marketing budget in certain industries and the majority of the marketing budget for most FMCG companies. This has been heightened further by the global financial recession which has both direct and indirect effects on South Africa. Approximately 70% of purchasing decisions are made in store by understanding how these decisions are made and how to influence them is essential in developing an effective marketing strategy. Besides product characteristics, promotional techniques are among the most popular instruments used by marketers to influence this process. Global trends show that 83% of all senior marketers increase or maintain spend on promotional merchandise year on year. However, they had limited insight into how to best spend the funds or if they even achieved their intended purpose. Despite the rise in promotional activity, especially in the FMCG sector, limited research has been conducted on the influence and effectiveness in South Africa. The purpose of this treatise, then, is to examine addresses the paucity in research with regard to consumer sales promotions in the non-alcoholic ready to drink (NARTD) market, particularly within South Africa. By developing a relationship model to measure the influence and effectiveness of selected sales promotion techniques on consumer off-take and attitude. That can be used by organisations to retain consumers, grow market share, improve brand equity and achieve higher profitability. Equipping marketers with an improved understanding of the impact of sales promotion techniques and consumer buying patterns within the South African NARTD market and delivering value to consumers through targeted promotions. In order to achieve this goal a thorough literature review was performed which drew on both academic- and industry-based research. This led to the development of a conceptual relationship model which was tested using rigorous measures incorporating questionnaire-style, quantitative data collection and statistical analysis. The research revealed that sales promotion techniques are an important element of a successful marketing strategy and when correctly executed deliver positive business results. FMCG companies operating within the NARTD market need to ensure that they incorporate sampling and premiums into their marketing mix even if this requires them to reduce their spend on above the line marketing activities. Ultimately, sampling and premiums were found to be effective sales promotion techniques within the South African NARTD market and have the ability to positively influence consumer off-take, brand love and buying behaviour.

As financial planners operate in a competitive business environment, it is important to identify how financial planners can apply relevant industry aspects to positively influence their customer satisfaction and customer retention levels. Although models of customer satisfaction and subsequently customer retention have been well researched for consumer products and services, there has been limited research in regards to financial planning. Previous research in the financial planning industry focussed on specific elements of financial planner-client relationships, for example trust, integrity and ethics. This research study reviews existing literature on customer satisfaction and customer retention, as relevant to the financial planning industry. Thus the primary objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which the four predetermined independent variables; namely, two-way communication, ethical responsibility, clients’ financial knowledge and commission fees can possibly influence the intervening variable customer satisfaction and ultimately the dependent variable customer retention in the financial planning industry. An empirical investigation was undertaken to establish whether the independent variables; namely, two-way communication, ethical responsibility, clients’ financial knowledge and commission fees can possibly influence customer satisfaction and ultimately customer retention in the financial planning industry. A positivistic research paradigm was followed for this study. Quantitative data was gathered by distributing questionnaires to a sample of financial planning clients. The sample size consisted of 250 financial planning clients in the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan area. A response rate of 76.40 percent was achieved. The usable questionnaires were statistically analysed using the computer programmes Microsoft Excel and Statistica Version 10. The validity of the study was confirmed by utilising EFA. Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were calculated to confirm the reliability and the internal consistency of the measurement instrument of this study. Data was analysed in four phases. Descriptive statistics were calculated for this study. The validity of the measuring instrument was tested by performing EFA to consider construct validity. Thereafter the internal reliability of the data was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficients. Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficients and multiple regression calculations were calculated and discussed. Through multiple regression calculations, the factors that emerged were used to analyse the relationships predicted by the five hypotheses. Finally t-tests and analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests were conducted and discussed. The empirical investigation revealed that significant relationships exist between the independent variables two-way communication, ethical responsibility, commission fees and the intervening variable customer satisfaction as well as the dependent variable customer retention. The empirical investigation revealed that if a financial planner communicates financial information accurately and understandably to clients while acting in an ethical manner, clients are likely to be satisfied with the products/services of the financial planner and be retained by the financial planner. This study established and confirmed the significant positive relationship that exists between customer satisfaction and customer retention in the financial planning industry. Recommendations have been provided based on the main empirical findings. All financial planners in South Africa, including all the regulatory bodies, will benefit from the empirical findings as well as the recommendations of this study on how to improve customer satisfaction and customer retention which will ultimately increase service delivery of financial planners in the financial planning industry.

This thesis aims to chart and explain the evolution of credit practices and the law’s reaction to them vis-à-vis the protection of borrowers between 1700 and 1974. The cat-and-mouse game played out between the credit industry and the legislature, and the longstanding tension between the credit needs of the commercial community and those of the small private borrower are of central importance. This thesis is primarily historical rather than theoretical; it seeks to describe and explain legal developments over time. But, in order to illuminate this development, the law will be viewed through the lens of a simple analytical framework based on the dichotomy between public law regulation, on the one hand, and the private law of contract, on the other. Viewed through this lens, it should be possible to position the law at any given stage of its development at a particular point on a scale of ‘regulatoriness’. The framework within which these rules were originally developed was, of course, neither intentionally nor self-consciously theoretical, but that is not to say that a theoretical framework lacks utility in legal historical inquiry.

The diploma thesis clarifies the concrete usage of symbols in marketing communication on the base of examination of the symbol's problems and the marketing research. It was finding out by the research how the symbolism is perceived in marketing communication, how and how much are consumers influenced by symbols, if they even realize the influence, how symbols impress them, which symbols impress them positively or negatively and which symbols they prefer. From the accomplished analysis of the results of questionnaire research follows that the most of consumers realize the symbolism in marketing communication and they are able to recognize it. Respondests were able to match concrete symbols with concrete products in many cases. Different symbols cause different reactions at respondents, which depends on gender, age and education. The usage of symbolism in marketing communication has to respect definite rules and recommendation. Usage of unsuitable symbol can lead to totally different result than was planned. That is why it is necessary to be thorough and to pay attention to the usage of symbolism in marketing communication. The usage of symbols helps the product to penetrate better the awareness of consumers and mainly to ground hard and stay in their mind.

Even big companies cannot guarantee their brands never ever fail customers. Recently the brand failures of Toyota taught us a vivid lesson that a brand takes decades to be built up but to be ruined overnight. Although, the advantages of building global brands are well recognized in literature, the superiorities of global brands in brand failure context are not yet studied. This study aims to investigate the effects of perceived brand globalness (PBG) on consumer affective and behavioral responses to brand failures. Global brands are perceived superior to local brands due to factors like higher quality perceptions and prestige feelings. Based on attribution theory, consumers are expected to have less negative responses to the failure of a brand which has a higher (vs. lower) PBG. Two studies were conducted to test the proposed hypotheses. Both studies were 2 (high PBG vs. low PBG brand) × 2 (failure present vs. absent) between subjects factorial designs. More than 200 respondents participated in the experiments. Study 1 examined the effects of PBG on consumer responses to fictitious brands. In order to increase the generalizability of research, Study 2 used established brands to find out the effects of PBG on consumer responses while controlling the confounding variables of brand familiarity and brand equity of the selected established brands. The results indicate that the more a brand is perceived global, the less negative responses consumers have toward the failures. Moreover, this thesis examines the moderating role of consumer ethnocentrism on the relationship between PBG and consumer responses. The proposed hypotheses are generally supported. The findings enrich the literature and benefit the marketing practitioners by broadening their views of building global brands.

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