Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, February, 2021 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 193-199). / The United States no longer has the luxury of overspending on military weapon systems. Military programs have steadily cost more, taken longer, and delivered less. How can the Department of Defense reverse this trend? The Department of Defense prescribes the use of an Earned Value Management System (EVMS) to control large, complex engineering projects. According to academic literature, the earned value method can be an effective project control technique but also has significant flaws. Modern integrated project models allow for innovative new approaches to project control which may be superior to the earned value method. Department of Defense policy reveals that integrating cost, schedule, and scope; accurately forecasting project status to allow for proactive decision making; and effective risk mitigation are the most important features of a project control method. This thesis reviews earned value method research and Department of Defense EVMS policy. This thesis also evaluates four project control methods through an experiment that uses an integrated project model. Subject to the specific conditions represented in the model, a Multiple Risk Level model-based control method enabled more proactive decision making than a modified version of the earned value method in the experiment. However, the Multiple Risk Level model did not forecast or enable risk mitigation as well as the modified earned value method in the experiment. The results of this analysis suggest that the ideal project control technique depends on the goals, nature, and environment of the project. Therefore, the Department of Defense should use integrated project models to tailor project control strategies to best suit acquisition programs. / by Christopher E. Carson / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (page 41). / We propose a volatility trading system that comprises two uncorrelated components. The first component is astraddle long-short strategy which profits by anticipating changes in the volatility of stocks within the SP 500 Index.The second component is a filtered out-of-the-money put writing strategy on the SP 500 Index which profits by collecting premiums while avoiding losses that would occur during market selloffs by using the Absorption Ratio to detect fragile market regimes. We combine these two components into a portfolio by weighting them in such a way that they contribute equally to total portfolio risk.In addition,we include a dynamic hedging overlay to provide further protection to the portfolio. / by Bin Zhou. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, February, 2021 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 83-84). / Complex mechatronic projects have machine functionality dependent upon substantial embedded software content delivered in coordination with the hardware componentry. This situation creates a dilemma for project leadership as they determine which methods to utilize for managing the project. One option is to utilize a hybrid approach where comingled Stage-Gate and Agile methods serve both hardware and software activities. However, the need for synchronized delivery schedules between the hardware and software components is not addressed well by Agile methods, which do not emphasize forward planning. In contrast, the uncertainty in defining software scope challenges the up-front scope definition relied upon by Stage-Gate methods. Three independently operating project delivery systems have each spent more than ten years weaving Agile software development methods into the classic Stage-Gate approaches to make their hybrid project management systems. This study interviews Agile and Stage-Gate leadership roles within each of these three project delivery systems to identify what has evolved to keep the schedule expectations for scope delivery aligned to the discovery of additional scope while software development progresses. This study finds that both the Stage-Gate and Agile leaders interviewed call for more work to be done in the project planning stage to improve the inclusion of more rigorous software scope identification activities. It also finds several differences in the design stage activities across the groups studied concerning how they accommodate the discovery of new software scope into the overall scope and schedule expectations for the project, each with a differing level of effectiveness. The most effective traits include the formalized identification and capture of the product decomposition and architecture so that it can be used to estimate software scope, schedule, and resources more accurately upfront in the planning stage. During the design stage, the most effective project delivery systems leverage the cultural acknowledgment and leadership's enforcement of the stakeholders' need to adjust their scope expectations in response to new scope discoveries. The addition of repeating two-month planning events deliver timely forecasts of software deliveries, and frequent scope management meetings allow for rapid adjustment to software scope discoveries. Each software delivery system added dedicated Software Delivery Lead roles to act as the liaison between the Agile and Stage-Gate management methods and to formulate mitigation activities with the rest of the functional area leads to the mechatronic product. Project delivery system developers may use these findings as a set of lessons learned to guide their pursuits with the integration of Agile practices into an existing Stage-Gate process. Others could build upon these findings by repeating the activity with other case studies to see if a pattern emerges, which could guide the creation of more specific Agile Stage-Gate frameworks. / by Thomas M. Johnson. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, February, 2021 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. "February 2021." / Includes bibliographical references (pages 96-110). / Indonesia lies within the Ring of Fire, making the country highly prone to geophysical disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis, in addition to weather-related disasters such as floods, landslides, and wildfires. One effective way to reduce the risk of getting hit by these natural disaster hazards is through the deployment and operation of early warning systems. Early warning systems are generally responsible for two things: identifying the hazard precursors and delivering the warning in a timely manner. In both of these functions, wireless communication plays a critical role. Terrestrial communication, however, is often compromised when a disaster hits. Satellite communication (SatCom) offers a promising alternative not only for warning transmission, but also precursor detection from the thousands of disaster monitoring sensors deployed. It enables the placement of such sensors in remote areas, often closer to the source of the hazards. This thesis uses system architecture concepts to evaluate the pros and cons of the various terrestrial and satellite communication technologies in the context of early warning systems and suggest the best architecture for each use case. Based on the results of the analysis, satellite L-band, S-band, amateur radio, and newer technologies such as satellite LPWAN and GSM can provide significant benefits in terms of performance and cost. Additionally, the benefit of combining technical development and community engagement are highlighted for a sustainable early warning system. Findings from this thesis are hoped to provide the relevant government agencies in Indonesia and other countries with similar challenges for disaster risk reduction. / by Ajie Nayaka Nikicio. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, February, 2021 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 71-76). / The dichotomy of exploration and exploitation has been used in literature for many years to distinguish the needs of exploring new innovation/creating new markets versus exploiting existing capabilities/markets. This concept has been studied across various disciplines, such as organizational learning, leadership, and innovation strategy. In this thesis, we examine how this tensions plays out in large corporations, specifically in how engineering teams prioritize activities in early stage development. We argue that engineering teams inherently trade-off between exploration and exploitation during development but would benefit by more intentionally and explicitly considering their strategy, in order to ensure their efforts stay aligned with the long-term goals of the organization. Using survey data collected from over 900 system engineers and managers across a range of industries, we analyzed how engineers and organizations consider early stage development efforts, and what factors affect their importance. Notably, we observed that as an organization's market growth decreases, attention to architecture and design innovation within engineering teams also decreased. Eventually there is a tipping point in which market projections are so dire that engineering teams appear to undergo a drastic shift to refocus on exploration efforts. We also find that engineers struggle to maintain a consistent mental model of how much time and effort their organization currently wants to (or should) spend between product development phases. We argue these findings show the lack of an effective innovation strategy at the product development level, as it is inline with common pitfalls identified in other innovation strategy literature. / by Connery Noble. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, February, 2021 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 93-111). / The United States retail industry will continue to create value for Supermajors with branded retail networks. Regulation requiring efficiency improvements and the distribution of lower emission fuel substitutes will require Supermajors to evolve to maintain their competitive positions in the market. Supermajors ability to reliably produce energy at scale and their growing capabilities in optimizing their business through digital applications uniquely positions them to succeed in the future. Supermajors should look at regulation as an opportunity to grow profitability. Supermajors ability to understand lower emission energy systems in the context of their legacy assets will be critical to delivery financial results in the future. Technological advancements among lower emission transportation energy substitutes, like electricity and hydrogen, present an opportunity for Supermajors to diversify their fuel offerings to meet future transportation energy needs. Supermajors should be cautious of early investment in these alternatives considering the financial risk but should recognize the potentially greater risk of failing to act in time. Supermajors' retail networks provide the optimal platform to improve their corporate image. Supermajors consistently highlight the actions they are taking to develop lower emission alternatives and the contributions they make to the communities in which they operate. However, Supermajors should also consider targeting the customer experience offered by their brand considering the success Independents have experienced by employing that strategy. This appears to be a more effective approach compared to placing emphasis on fuel quality advantages. / by Caitlin Williams. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, September, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 80-81). / Traditional oil and gas companies will continue to face market uncertainties in the coming decades. With increased pressure to confront climate change and energy technology innovations, the future demand and pricing for petroleum products is unclear. Hydrocarbons will continue to play a part in the changing energy landscape. However, companies will need to revisit what capital is spent on and how they spend it. Instead of tying up capital in a one-time massive investment decision, made under long term assumptions, agile investing gives power back to the business decision maker. This thesis has developed a computationally efficient model for valuing systems built for agile investing. It combines system architecture principles, real options valuation, and object-oriented programming. Investment decisions under uncertainty are simulated by combining optimization algorithms and Monte Carlo sampling. The approach allows expansion decisions to be included in the early stages of system architecture design. In industry, definition of subsystem requirements is an influential step in project development, setting up the costlier and time intensive detailed engineering, procurement and construction. Practicality is demonstrated through application to a realistic, but hypothetical case study. We explore the development of an upstream, onshore oil field. The system is decomposed into several subsystems accomplishing fluid extraction, processing and sales. The model simulates their physical and economic interactions to calculate performance metrics of net present value, capital expenditure, system capacity, emissions and others. We investigate performance changes based on subsystem sizing and installation timing. The analysis shows how agility can increase expected value while reducing investment risk. Overall expected value increases by 5% and the initial capital commitment is only one-sixth the cost of a full production system. The value is created by earlier positive cashflows, hedging commitment against falling oil prices and quick expansion opportunism in the case of rising prices. Using the same model, subsystems are refined and then expanded to investigate combustion emissions. By incorporating cleaner fuel sources, combustion emissions can be reduced by 70%. We conclude by recommending specific subsystem requirements for an agile investment design. Keywords: agility, oil and gas, system architecture, real options, Monte Carlo simulation, integer optimization, managing uncertainty, design flexibility, object-oriented programming / by Katherine A. Brown. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-88). / Platform businesses such as Google, Amazon, VISA and Apple are major players in today's economy. But how do platform businesses start? Why would a customer visit Amazon Marketplace if there were no products, and why would businesses sell products on Amazon if there were no customers? This is a critical challenge for new platforms, and is known as the Chicken or the Egg Problem. This paper explores both successful and unsuccessful previous attempts to solve this challenge, identifies critical strategies that were used, and outlines recommendations for future platform businesses. / by Andrew Cunningham. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 82-85). / This thesis develops and demonstrates, in the context of environmental uncertainties, a process to 1. Quantitatively assess the effects of uncertainties on long-term enterprise performance, 2. Open the design space of strategic planning using real options to mitigate risks and take advantage of positive opportunities. Global warming, which is producing more frequent extreme weather events and driving in-depth societal transformations, increases the need to change usual habits of grounding strategic planning on deterministic forecasts, and pushes for realistic evaluation of potential results under uncertainties. We use a screening model to reproduce enterprise cash-flows and evaluate its net present value under thousands of scenarios (Monte Carlo simulation). This high-level evaluation enables us to test different strategies and compare the distribution of potential outcomes. Overall, we can realistically explore a larger design space for strategic planning, and intentionally integrate flexibility in design with an understanding of potential gains and required preparation. We apply the analysis to a case study inspired by OCP Group, the Moroccan major phosphate mining and fertilizer manufacturer. We examine the fluctuations of commodity markets, and the transformations led by environmental concerns. We recognize that environmental constraints can regionally change the systems of production, the demand, and could deeply impact global fertilizer markets. We especially focus on the risks of an international over-supply, caused by potential drastic decrease in East Asian consumption, and a regional change in the requirements for phosphate rock (e.g., limitation in heavy metals concentration). These could create parallel markets and change the flow of production. Our quantitative analysis indicates the desirability of exploring strategic drivers to complement the traditional price/volume approach. Flexible capacity expansion, in terms of both volume and type of products, coupled with a systemic allocation of production to markets across the industrial bandwidth (instead of a sales strategy by product line), could improve expected NPV significantly. / by Adèle Cadario. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, May, 2020 / Cataloged from the official version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 102-118). / Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a new digital technology and strategy imperative. It can have an enormous influence on the economy and society. In 1956, the term AI was introduced at the Dartmouth conference and used mainly in computer science research and academic domain. AI experienced several ups and downs since its inception. However, last the last few years, the availability of massive amounts of data, advanced algorithms, and an exponential increase in computing power is fueling its growth. It is acting as a key driver and value creator for industries such as healthcare, finance, education, manufacturing, and retail. Although a few enterprises are successful in adopting AI, others are struggling to identify potential AI use cases and realize investment returns. There are significant challenges enterprises need to overcome to adopt AI. This research aims to inform the successful enterprise adoption of AI by presenting a systems perspective and investigating the roadblocks. Based on the research work conducted, the six most dominant roadblocks for the successful adoption of AI are identified using literature survey approach and synthesizing learnings from AI-adoption failure cases. The identified roadblocks are: not recognizing the limits of current AI technologies, not recognizing the need for human judgment and involvement, lack of enterprise capabilities to manage risks associated with embracing AI, lack of strategy to market AI products and services, difficulty in moving from the AI-pilot stage to real-world applications stage, and not actively engaging all the stakeholders. Adopting holistic thinking is one approach to address the roadblocks faced in adopting AI at an enterprise level. / by Avinash Ghorpade. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program