Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 66-69). / Solar PV penetration has been increasing rapidly in the U.S. in recent years. This growth can be attributed to multiple factors; one of which is financial incentives in the form of tax credit programs. One of the most effective tax credit programs in the U.S. is a federal tax program known as the Investment Tax Credit (ITC). The ITC program has been extended in recent years, and is currently set to expire in the early 2020s. This work conducts scenario analysis to evaluate the effects extending the ITC will have on the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) as opposed to allowing it to expire as it is currently set to. Particular attention is paid to the effects on LCOE as this helps evaluate whether solar PV will stay economically competitive compared to other sources of electricity and thus provides some guidance on the role of the ITC in accelerating the adoption of solar PV. / by Omar O. Sabir. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (page 35). / Phantom inventories result from mismatch in the inventory that is actually available at a store on the shelf and the existing inventory as per the data record at any retail store. Inventory on hand (IOH) record for each SKU(stock keeping unit) at any store is summation of on-shelf and back room inventory. Mismatch in this data impacts the product availability at a store and in turn results in lost opportunities of revenues for the store and the CPG (consumer product goods) manufacturer. A phantom inventory remains unnoticed unless an intervention such as regular shelf re-stocking, physical audit or consumer inquiry occurs at the store. However, even these interventions may not coincide with actual shelf stock out event and hence, the phantom inventory would continue to exist. This report proposes a Bayesian approach based on consecutive zero sales in the POS (point of sales system) while inventory IOH remains positive through the observation time. The daily demand is designed using a negative binomial distribution, which is used further to determine the posterior probability of phantom inventories given a specific set of consecutive days without sales of a SKU at a store. The prevalence of phantom inventories is then calculated using all the number of consecutive days without sales for each SKU store combination and is compared to a Gumbel distribution. This approach has been applied on one data set including POS and IOH data provided by a CPG manufacturer, where the prevalence was found to be 11.63%. / by Sonali Tripathy. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 185-188). / The current and future Operational Environment (OE) for the Unites States (US) military is becoming increasingly complex. This complexity requires Systems Engineers and Architects to develop new approaches for evaluating the variability inherent in the OEs of today and tomorrow. In response to this growing capability gap, the United States Department of Defense (DoD) has established the Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) program. A core tenant of ERS is Broad Utility-that is, the ability of a system to, "perform effectively in a wide range of operations across multiple futures despite experiencing disruptions". [1, p. 872] The goal of this research is to provide system designers with an approach for architecting systems developed under this program for Broad Utility, as well as systems developed outside of this program, in which stakeholders desire the solution to exhibit similar properties. Specifically, through the utilization of Systems Engineering methods and tools, this research accomplishes four objectives: (1) Develops an integrated, holistic model of the Operational Environment-the Operational Environment Exchange Network (OEEN); (2) Validates Flexibility and Robustness as key Ilities of Broad Utility for technical systems; (3) Proposes a set of Architectural Decisions for achieving Broad Utility; and (4) Provides an example of how to apply the Broad Utility Architectural Decisions to a system design problem for the US Army. The proposed Architectural Decisions link the variables of the Operational Environment exogenous to the technical system to the Ilities of Flexibility and Robustness. By accomplishing these research objectives, the resulting design considerations should enable system designers to increase the likelihood that the resulting system exhibits Broad Utility and is more readily able to remain effective, despite physical, social, or technological changes in its external environment. / by Arthur James Middlebrooks. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 99-102). / Project management has three dimensional constraints: scope, schedule, and cost. The Agile project management framework is increasingly a challenge for cross-organizational teamwork, since the framework often results in strategy implementation deviation from the original strategic intent due to the three project constraints associated with teamwork. To bridge the gap between strategy and implementation, the Strategy-V Model is proposed as an adaptive framework to semantically inject Agile activities and interactions into Waterfall functional structures of strategy and implementation in software development extended organizations. To quantify such framework performance, new measures are proposed as sociotechnical sensors namely Project Emergent Value (PEV) and Project Utilization Value (PUV) using a fourth dimension of teamwork reward for project quality. / The Strategy-V Project Utilization Theorem is mathematically set forth as flexible options for the use of the new adaptive framework based on the sociotechnical sensors. The theorem is generalized to the Theory of Project Framework Utilization as a guideline to choose effective framework. Further work explores the Strategy-V Model variants in organizational strategy management and Flexible Strategy design under uncertainties. A case study shows the use of the Strategy-V Model in analyzing Open Source projects to advance the adaptive strategy formation. Open source as a corporate strategy has been redefining corporate innovations, saving development cost, and gaining faster time to market and larger market shares. A corporate open source project faces many uncertainties during strategy implementation such as effective contributions from external development community, projects dependencies, competitions, and economic impacts. / This research also proposes a Flexible Option design as a case study for corporate decision making that leverages corporate internal resources and investments to optimize strategy implementation across organizations. / by Nick Ke Ning. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2018 / Page 126 blank. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 105-109). / Light plays a significant role in urbanization throughout human history. And as the number of people living in the cities has already exceeded half of the world's population, people are facing many challenges like poor infrastructure, social problems, etc. To overcome the burgeoning populations, the lighting innovation is necessary. This thesis presents a solution to the challenges of a light and caring city. We present a lighting system that integrates design strategy, system architecture, and product design. The thesis begins with exploratory research at the intersection of the keywords, light and caring city. We discuss six support roles of light in daily life and twenty features of the caring cities from case studies. We dive into issues of wellbeing and work-life balance with the hypothesis that there lies an opportunity to make a meaningful impact with innovative lighting. / To get the holistic view of the challenge, primary and secondary research were conducted to understand user needs before developing the design concepts of the lighting product or service. The design iteration uncovered feedback from users and professionals in the lighting industry, revealing valuable insights and a critical puzzle piece that the industry still struggles to answer: how can personalized lighting support citizens' activities in shared spaces? We believe our solution will make a significant impact to people in their daily lives. The thesis develops a 'smart lighting' solution to personalize and support daily activities, as envisioned for futuristic caring cities. Using a co-working space as the concept demonstration, the thesis introduces the Intelligent Connected Lighting System and a five-layer ruleset. This ruleset integrates a human's biological clock, weather effects, shared space occupancy, activities performed, and custom settings made by users. / Our system automatically adjusts luminaires to meet user needs in real-time. Also, to support the flexibility of the system, two additional intelligent lamps were designed with installation suggestions. / by Kamin Phakdurong and Yangyang Yang. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (page 87). / To prepare for combat, the US Army utilizes the National Training Center (NTC) to test and certify all units before deployment to combat operations. During the past 5 years, observers have noted below standard Operational Readiness (OR) Rates in the MI fleet during training at NTC. The Army's Program Manager for the MI Abrams requested this thesis examine the MI performance at NTC, possible reasons for the performance, and recommend solutions to those issues. The first research question asks if Ml OR rates are statistically below the Army Standard. Through collection of OR data throughout the Army, this study confirmed using statistical hypothesis testing that OR rates at NTC are below standard. The next three questions used regression analysis to identify possible reasons for the low performance. During the course of the study, mileage driven on each tank both before and during NTC was proven to have no effect on tank performance. Analysis of the parts stockage breadth at NTC warehouses was shown to be effective at predicting parts failures, but could recover up to 1.3% OR rate by adding 28 additional parts to the normal stockage list. Finally, analysis of individual unit maintenance performance measures showed individual programs have significant effect on Ml OR rates, specifically when examining controlled substitution policy and proper reporting procedures. Recommendations for the correction of the problem include the development of a more reliable mileage reporting system, additional research specifically into the time requirements for each unit, additional training for unit maintenance leaders, and parts failures trends during high-intensity training. / by Erik M. Hamilton. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 49-51). / A case study of dishwashers drying performance is used to illustrate the challenges involved in translating consumer needs to engineering specifications. The mismatch between the results of engineering tests of a dishwasher and the results of consumer satisfaction surveys reveals many improvement opportunities to the product development process. The case study presents how the correlation between internal tests and consumer satisfaction may reveal problems with the metrics defined to test products. The complexity of identifying consumer needs is discussed along with new methods to leveraging artificial intelligence and big data to conduct market research. The advantage of having deep knowledge about a system is discussed on the context of negotiating tradeoffs during a project. The impact of the organizational structure on the efficiency and efficacy of tradeoffs is discussed. The importance of product roadmaps and the risks imposed by uncertainty are presented along with the benefits of Set Based Concurrent Engineering and Modularization. / by Frederico César Mendes Calil. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 269-277). / High-speed rail (HSR) has improved dramatically since its launch in 1964 in terms of its technical aspects such as speed and reliability, thanks to technical developments including the automation of the train operation. At the same time, safety has become an increasingly critical aspect as the severity of the accidents has become much more severe. Although the automation and newly developed software might have decreased the number of accidents that would not have been prevented without them, they also have introduced new types of hazards and accidents that did not exist before due to the increased level of complexity of the whole system. These hazards include system design errors, component interactions accidents, or software-related errors due to the increased number of interfaces and coordination among internal and external stakeholders and higher dependency on automation and software. / Thus eliminating component failures should not be the only design consideration or priority, and more consideration should be given to eliminating coordination or design errors that would not be solved by redundancy for the sake of reliability improvement. This thesis mainly focuses on analyzing the past accidents caused by systematic failures and provides recommendations and considerations for designing and operating highly automated complex safety-critical railway systems. Often, the accident analysis finishes once someone is found to be responsible, but this thesis focuses on figuring out why they behaved that way by using the STAMP framework, which is based on systems theory, documenting the systemic factors which contributed to the accidents. The analysis thus looks into not only physical systems but also organizational aspects, such as management, organization culture, and other social-technical aspects. / Two accident analyses revealed causal factors on every level of the organization, including policy makers, audit authority, management, human operators and engineers, physical systems, and so on. In addition, the analyses provide the conceptual explanation of how the systems migrate into an unsafe state over time. The set of knowledge learned through the analyses is summarized as 35 lessons learned. These lessons are of use for future considerations in designing highly-automated safety-critical railway systems and their organization. / by Ryo Odajima. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 87-92). / The wave of the fourth industrial revolution leads us to an intelligent information society by spreading intelligent information technology (Al, IoT, Cloud, Big Data, etc.) to almost every aspect of our lives, such as industry, economy, culture, society, etc. As the fourth industrial revolution accelerates, it is crucial to establish an innovative strategy for Government that utilizes these technologies. Notably, to keep up with the changes in the intelligent information society, it is necessary to make a significant transformation of the current E-Government operation or E-Government service delivery. Therefore, this thesis focuses on the transformation to an intelligent E-Government, a new concept of E-Government that has absorbed intelligent information technology. Specifically, this thesis: 1) Analyzes the current E-government system using the ARIES framework and several other techniques, and examining the necessity of the transformation to an intelligent E-Government system. 2) Explores a successful transformation strategy to an intelligent E-Government from the organizational and political perspectives, and finally, 3) Proposes recommendations for how to implement an intelligent E-Government from a technical point of view. The expectations of citizens for government services are multiplying. Also, the emergence of the intelligent information society, the appearance of various new technologies, and the limitations of the current E-Government system require an improvement of the existing E-Government system. The primary goal of this thesis is to investigate a concrete and feasible plan for how to successfully transform the E-Government system in line with the evolution of technology. / by Eunjin Koo. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2019 / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Page 150 blank. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 119-149). / Recent hacks into blockchain systems and heists from such systems have raised serious questions about whether this new technology can be secured from ongoing, evolving cyberattacks. While the technology is known to provide an environment that is fundamentally safer than other existing centralized systems offer, security professionals warn that the current blockchain ecosystem is still immature, harboring many known as well as unknown defects [1]. This thesis draws upon a number of research studies and various other inquiries into blockchain systems security. In addition, this paper gathers and summarizes information regarding 78 recent blockchain cyberattacks and heists, analyzing and categorizing them as to their cause: platform breach, dApps exploit, access point attack, or endpoint hacking. Two of these attacks (the Ethereum blockchain system and the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange) are analyzed in detail using Causal Analysis using System Theory (CAST) method. A novel top-down security assessment method inspired by System Theoretic Process Analysis for Security (STPA-Sec) is used to evaluate a sample blockchain system, such as might be proposed for voting. An analysis of possible vulnerabilities is conducted, and suggestions for remediation and protection. / by Jae Hyung Lee. / S.M. in Engineering and Management / S.M.inEngineeringandManagement Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program