Natural disasters have always been and probably always will be a problem for humans and their settlements. With global warming seemingly increasing the frequency and strength of the climate related disasters, and more and more people being settled in urban centers, the ability to model and predict damage is more important than ever.The aim of this thesis has been to model and analyze a broad range of disaster types and the kind of impact that they have. By modeling damage indices for disaster types as different as hurricanes and volcanic eruptions, the thesis helps with understanding both similarities and differences between how disasters work and what impact they have on societies experiencing them. The thesis comprises four different chapters in addition to this introduction, where all of them include modeling of one or more types of natural disasters and their impact on real world scenarios such as local budgets, birth rates and economic growth.Chapter 2 is titled “Natural Disaster Damage Indices Based on Remotely Sensed Data: An Application to Indonesia". The objective was to construct damage indices through remotely sensed and freely available data. In short, the methodology exploits that one can use nightlight data as a proxy for economic activity. Then the nightlights data is matched with remote sensing data typically used for natural hazard modeling. The data is then used to construct damage indices at the district level for Indonesia, for different disaster events such as floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and the 2004 Christmas Tsunami. The chapter is forthcoming as a World Bank Policy Research Paper under Skoufias et al. (2017a).Chapter 3 utilizes the indices from Chapter 2 to showcase a potential area of use for them. The title is “The Reallocation of District-Level Spending and Natural Disasters: Evidence from Indonesia" and the focus is on Indonesian district-level budgets. The aim was to use the modeled intensity from Chapter 2 to a real world scenario that could affect policy makers. The results show that there is evidence that some disaster types cause districts to move costs away from more general line items to areas such as health and infrastructure, which are likely to experience added pressure due to disasters. Furthermore, volcanic eruptions and the tsunami led to less investment into more durable assets both for the year of the disaster and the following year. This chapter is also forthcoming as a World Bank Policy Research Paper under Skoufias et al. (2017b).The fourth chapter, titled “Urban Global Impact of Earthquakes from 2004 through 2013", is a short chapter focusing on earthquake damage and economic growth. This chapter is an expansion of the index used in the previous two chapters, where we use global data instead of focusing on a single country. Using a comprehensive remotely sensed dataset of contour mapsof global earthquakes from 2004 through 2013 and utilizing global nightlights as an economic proxy we model economic impact in the year of the quakes and the year after. Overall, it is shown that earthquakes negatively impact local urban light emissions by 0.7 percent.Chapter 5 is named “A Whirlwind Romance: The Effect of Hurricanes on Fertility in Early 20th Century Jamaica" and deviates from the prior chapters in that it is a historical chapter that looks at birth rates in the early 1900s. The goal was to use the complete and long-term birth database for Jamaica and match this with hurricane data to check fertility rates. We create a hurricane destruction index derived from a wind speed model that we combine with data on more than 1 million births across different parishes in Jamaica. Analyzing the birth rate following damaging hurricanes, we find that there is a strong and significant negative effect of hurricane destruction on the number of births. / Natural disasters have always been and probably always will be a problem for humans and their settlements. With global warming seemingly increasing the frequency and strength of the climate related disasters, and more and more people being settled in urban centers, the ability to model and predict damage is more important than ever.The aim of this thesis has been to model and analyze a broad range of disaster types and the kind of impact that they have. By modeling damage indices for disaster types as different as hurricanes and volcanic eruptions, the thesis helps with understanding both similarities and differences between how disasters work and what impact they have on societies experiencing them. The thesis comprises four different chapters in addition to this introduction, where all of them include modeling of one or more types of natural disasters and their impact on real world scenarios such as local budgets, birth rates and economic growth.Chapter 2 is titled “Natural Disaster Damage Indices Based on Remotely Sensed Data: An Application to Indonesia". The objective was to construct damage indices through remotely sensed and freely available data. In short, the methodology exploits that one can use nightlight data as a proxy for economic activity. Then the nightlights data is matched with remote sensing data typically used for natural hazard modeling. The data is then used to construct damage indices at the district level for Indonesia, for different disaster events such as floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and the 2004 Christmas Tsunami. The chapter is forthcoming as a World Bank Policy Research Paper under Skoufias et al. (2017a).Chapter 3 utilizes the indices from Chapter 2 to showcase a potential area of use for them. The title is “The Reallocation of District-Level Spending and Natural Disasters: Evidence from Indonesia" and the focus is on Indonesian district-level budgets. The aim was to use the modeled intensity from Chapter 2 to a real world scenario that could affect policy makers. The results show that there is evidence that some disaster types cause districts to move costs away from more general line items to areas such as health and infrastructure, which are likely to experience added pressure due to disasters. Furthermore, volcanic eruptions and the tsunami led to less investment into more durable assets both for the year of the disaster and the following year. This chapter is also forthcoming as a World Bank Policy Research Paper under Skoufias et al. (2017b).The fourth chapter, titled “Urban Global Impact of Earthquakes from 2004 through 2013", is a short chapter focusing on earthquake damage and economic growth. This chapter is an expansion of the index used in the previous two chapters, where we use global data instead of focusing on a single country. Using a comprehensive remotely sensed dataset of contour mapsof global earthquakes from 2004 through 2013 and utilizing global nightlights as an economic proxy we model economic impact in the year of the quakes and the year after. Overall, it is shown that earthquakes negatively impact local urban light emissions by 0.7 percent.Chapter 5 is named “A Whirlwind Romance: The Effect of Hurricanes on Fertility in Early 20th Century Jamaica" and deviates from the prior chapters in that it is a historical chapter that looks at birth rates in the early 1900s. The goal was to use the complete and long-term birth database for Jamaica and match this with hurricane data to check fertility rates. We create a hurricane destruction index derived from a wind speed model that we combine with data on more than 1 million births across different parishes in Jamaica. Analyzing the birth rate following damaging hurricanes, we find that there is a strong and significant negative effect of hurricane destruction on the number of births.

Wang, Boqun. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 35-37). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgment --- p.ii / Contents --- p.iii / List of Tables and Figures --- p.iv / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.v / Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.1 / Chapter 2.1. --- Interpretation of the Output Moderation --- p.3 / Chapter 3 . --- Reduction of Output Volatility in China --- p.6 / Chapter 3.1. --- Data Description --- p.8 / Chapter 3.2. --- Basic Statistical Analysis --- p.8 / Chapter 3.3 --- Decomposition of the Reduction in Volatility --- p.13 / Chapter 3.4. --- Compositional Change --- p.13 / Chapter 4. --- Output Volatility Drop from Central-planning to Economic transition…… --- p.15 / Chapter 5. --- Output Moderation during the Reform Period --- p.19 / Chapter 5.1. --- Conceptual Framework --- p.19 / Chapter 5.2. --- General Determinants --- p.19 / Chapter 5.2.1. --- China-specific Determinants --- p.22 / Chapter 5.3. --- Panel Regression --- p.23 / Chapter 5.3.1. --- Without Share --- p.25 / Chapter 5.3.2. --- With Share --- p.29 / Chapter 5.3.3. --- Interpretation of the Regression Result --- p.33 / Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.33 / References --- p.35 / Figures and Tables --- p.38

Yuan, Jiang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 48-51). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Theoretical Literature --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Menu Cost Model --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- Signal Extraction Model --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1.3 --- Monetary Search Model --- p.7 / Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Literature --- p.8 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- Inflation and Relative Price Variability in a Transitional Economy Evidence from China --- p.10 / Chapter 3.1 --- Data and Variables --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- Inflation Decomposition --- p.19 / Chapter 3.3 --- Empirical Evidence --- p.14 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- Inflation and RPV --- p.14 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- Robustness --- p.18 / Chapter 3.4 --- Conclusion --- p.20 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Inflationary Regimes and Relative Prices --- p.22 / Chapter 4.1 --- Introduction --- p.22 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Change of Inflationary Regimes in China: 1978-2008 --- p.23 / Chapter 4.3 --- Inflationary Regimes and Relative Price --- p.25 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- Preliminary Evidence --- p.25 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- Empirical Evidence --- p.27 / Chapter 4.4 --- Structure Change --- p.32 / Chapter 4.4.1 --- Endogenous Breakpoint Test --- p.32 / Chapter 4.4.2 --- Test Results on the Changing Role of Expected Inflation --- p.33 / Chapter 4.5 --- Conclusion --- p.35 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Institutional Cost and Relative Price Variability --- p.36 / Chapter 5.1 --- Introduction --- p.36 / Chapter 5.2 --- "Institutional Cost, Price Adjustment, and Relative Price Variability in China" --- p.38 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Background --- p.38 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Institutional cost --- p.39 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- The relationship between institutional cost and relative price variability --- p.42 / Chapter 5.3 --- The Empirical Evidence --- p.43 / Chapter 5.4 --- Conclusion --- p.45 / Chapter Chapter 6 --- Conclusion and Implications --- p.46 / Reference --- p.48

Ng, Shou Zhong. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 71-77). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.vii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.viii / Chapter 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- MOTIVATIONS / Chapter 1.2 --- OBJECTIVES / Chapter 2 --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.12 / Chapter 3 --- DATA DESCRIPTION --- p.22 / Chapter 4 --- METHODOLOGY --- p.25 / Chapter 4.1 --- Cross-Section Dispersion of Per Capita Real Income / Chapter 4.2 --- Stochastic Convergence of the 17 OECD Countries / Chapter 4.3 --- Time-Varying Parameters Model on Convergence / Chapter 4.4 --- Unobserved Components Structural Time Series Models on Converging Economy / Chapter 5 --- ESTIMATION RESULTS --- p.40 / Chapter 5.1 --- Cross-Section Dispersion of Per Capita Real Income / Chapter 5.2 --- Stochastic Convergence of the 17 OECD Countries / Chapter 5.3 --- Time-Varying Parameters Model on Convergence / Chapter 5.4 --- Unobserved Components Structural Time Series Models on Converging Economy / Chapter 6 --- CONCLUSIONS --- p.64 / APPENDICES --- p.67 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.71 / ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.78 / TABLES --- p.87

This is an in-depth study of the structural change and transition of the Chinese consumer goods market from 1954 to 1991 using disequilibrium econometric methodology. The model for the Chinese consumer goods market is based on the Portes-Winter disequilibrium model for centrally planned economies (1980). The demand function is derived from the Houthakker-Taylor savings function. The supply function is composed of approximations to the government's long-term and short-term plans. The transaction quantity in the market is defined as the smaller of effective demand and supply. Using the traditional global fitting method, three models are evaluated: one model that assumes no structural change, and two models that assume structural change. The estimations show that the structures of the demand and supply functions of the Chinese consumer goods market have changed since the economic reform in 1980. An innovative non-parametric method of locally weighted optimization is applied to further test the variations in model parameters during the period between 1954 and 1991 without assuming explicit functional forms of demand and supply. The estimation results show that the Chinese consumer goods market fits the Portes-Winter model well in the earlier years. The results confirm that the structures of demand and supply functions have changed since the economic reform. In the late 1980's, the Chinese consumer goods market is shown to have shifted away from a pure centrally planned system. Other main conclusions of this study include, first, that chronic shortage does not exist in the Chinese consumer goods market from 1954 to 1991. Second, a rigid price level has not caused the market to be persistently in disequilibrium. Third, the classical disequilibrium model of consumer goods market in centrally planned economies does not fit the Chinese consumer goods market in the later years.

Abstract not available

Abstract not available

Abstract not available

This thesis models the Australian-US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate with particular attention being paid to investor risk aversion. Accounting for investor risk aversion in AUD/USD exchange rate modelling is novel, so too is the method used to measure risk aversion in this thesis. Investor risk aversion is measured using a technique developed in Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004), which makes use of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) extracted from option markets. More conventional approaches use forward-market pricing or Uncovered Interest Parity. Several methods of estimating PDFs from option and spot markets are examined, with the estimations from currency spot-markets representing an original application of an arbitrage technique developed in Stutzer (1996) to the AUD/USD exchange rate. The option and spot-market PDFs are compared using their first four moments and if estimated judiciously, the spot-market PDFs are found to have similar shapes to the option-market PDFs. So in the absence of an AUD/USD exchange rate options market, spot-market PDFs can act as a reasonable substitute for option-market PDFs for the purpose of examining market sentiment. The Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) attached to the AUD/USD, the US Dollar-Japanese Yen, the US Dollar-Swiss Franc and the US-Canadian Dollar exchange rates is measured using the Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique. Amongst these exchange rates, only the AUD/USD exchange rate demonstrates a significant level of investor RRA and only over a weekly forecast horizon. The Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique is also used to approximate a time-varying risk premium for the AUD/USD exchange rate. This risk premium is added to the cointegrating vectors of fixed-price and asset monetary models of the AUD/USD exchange rate. An index of Australia???s export commodity prices is also added. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of these cointegrating vectors is tested relative to a random walk using an error-correction framework. While adding the time-varying risk premium improves this forecasting ability, adding export commodity prices does so by more. Further, including both the time-varying risk premium and export commodity prices in the cointegrating vectors reduces their forecasting ability. So the time-varying risk premium is important for AUD/USD exchange rate modelling, but not as important as export commodity prices.

This dissertation contains a series of essays that provide empirical evidence for Australia on some fundamental predictions of real business cycle models and on the convergence and persistence of real interest rates. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the issues examined in each chapter and provides an overview of the methodologies that are used. Tests of various basic predictions of standard real business cycle models for Australia are presented in Chapters 2, 3 and 4. Chapter 2 considers the question of great ratios for Australia. These are ratios of macroeconomic variables that are predicted by standard models to be stationary in the steady state. Using time series econometric techniques (unit root tests and cointegration tests) Australia great ratios are examined. In Chapter 3 a more restrictive implication of real business cycle models than the existence of great ratios is considered. Following the methodology proposed by Canova, Finn and Pagan (1994) the equilibrium decision rules for some standard real business cycle are tested on Australian data. The final essay on this topic is presented in Chapter 4. In this chapter a large-country, small-country is used to try and understand the reason for the sharp rise in Australia??s share of world output that began around 1990. Chapter 5 discusses real interest rate linkages in the Pacific Basin region. Vector autoregressive models and bootstrap methods are adopted to study financial linkages between East Asian markets, Japan and US. Given the apparent non-stationarity of real interest rates a related issue is examined in Chapter 6, viz. the persistence of international real interest rates and estimation of their half-life. Half-life is selected as a means of measuring persistence of real rates. Bootstrap methods are employed to overcome small sample issues in the estimation and a non-standard statistical inference methodology (Highest Density Regions) is adopted. Chapter 7 reapplies the High Density Regions methodology and bootstrap half-life estimation to the data used in Chapters 2 and 5. This provides a robustness check on the results of standard unit root tests that were applied to the data in those chapters. Main findings of the thesis are as follows. The long run implications of real business cycle models are largely rejected by the Australia data. This finding holds for both the existence of great ratios and when the explicit decision rules are employed. When the small open economy features of the Australian economy are incorporated in a two country RBC model, a country-specific productivity boom seems to provide a possible explanation for the rise in Australia??s share of world output. The essays that examine real interest rates suggest the following results. Following the East Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 there appears to have been a decline in the importance of Japan in influencing developments in the Pacific Basin region. In addition there is evidence that following the crisis Korea??s financial market became less insular and more integrated with the US. Finally results obtained from the half-life estimators suggest that despite the usual findings from unit root tests, real interest rates may in fact exhibit mean-reversion.